Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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AXUS74 KLZK 120210
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-121200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
800 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2016

...DROUGHT SLOWLY WORSENING IN ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN AUGUST...PRECIPITATION SHUT
OFF IN ARKANSAS. SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER WERE THE TWO DRIEST MONTHS
OF 2016 LOCALLY...AND THERE WAS LITTLE TO NO RELIEF DURING
THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF NOVEMBER.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF
DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND D4
/EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID NOVEMBER 8TH 2016...
INDICATED WIDESPREAD D1 /67 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS.
THESE CONDITIONS MAINLY AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
STATE. THERE WERE D2 /8 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTH...INCLUDING MONTGOMERY...PIKE...AND POLK COUNTIES IN THE
LITTLE ROCK COUNTY WARNING AREA.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES DURING MUCH OF THE FALL. UNDER THE
HIGH...IT WAS WARMER THAN USUAL AND THERE WAS NOT MUCH RAIN.

IN OCTOBER...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE FOUR TO MORE THAN SIX DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FREEZES ARE TYPICALLY FELT IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS BY LATE OCTOBER...BUT NOT THIS YEAR. VEGETATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO GO DORMANT...SO GROUND WATER CONSUMPTION IS ELEVATED.

AS PLANTS UTILIZE MOISTURE IN THE SOIL...STORM CLOUDS HAVE DONE
LITTLE TO REPLENISH THE MOISTURE. FROM SEPTEMBER 1ST THROUGH
NOVEMBER 11TH /72 DAYS/...FOUR TO EIGHT INCH RAINFALL DEFICITS
WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...LESS THAN
THREE INCHES OF LIQUID WAS MEASURED AT FORT SMITH /SEBASTIAN
COUNTY/...PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON COUNTY/...TEXARKANA /MILLER
COUNTY/...AND WEST MEMPHIS /CRITTENDEN COUNTY/. RAINFALL WAS
LESS THAN TWENTY PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT THESE LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION FROM SEPTEMBER 1ST THROUGH NOVEMBER 11TH 2016...

SITE                  AMOUNT     DEPARTURE   PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/   5.70        -5.03          53
HARRISON /NC AR/       4.85        -4.51          52
JONESBORO /NE AR/      3.65        -5.09          42
FORT SMITH /WC AR/     2.22        -7.80          22
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/     3.23        -6.65          33
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/   1.31        -7.40          15
TEXARKANA /SW AR/      1.23        -8.77          12
EL DORADO /SC AR/      3.82        -6.10          39
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/     1.92        -7.43          21

IT WAS THE ELEVENTH DRIEST SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER ON RECORD
SINCE 1895 IN ARKANSAS...AND THE DRIEST SINCE 1963. THE
STATEWIDE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TWO MONTH PERIOD
WAS 3.41 INCHES...WHICH WAS 3.64 INCHES SUBPAR.

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

THERE WAS A MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER IN ALL 75 COUNTIES
AS OF NOVEMBER 11TH. THERE WERE BURN BANS POSTED IN
15 OF 75 COUNTIES.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS ON THE DECLINE OVERALL. VALUES WERE NEAR
NORMAL /30TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE/ IN PARTS OF THE NORTH...AND
BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE /5TH TO 30TH PERCENTILE/ ELSEWHERE.

ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES...SITES REPORTING NEAR NORMAL
STREAMFLOW /FROM THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE/ WERE GENERALLY
IN THE NORTH. THERE WERE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH SUBPAR LEVELS
/10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE/. LEVELS WERE BELOW TO WELL
BELOW AVERAGE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS /LESS THAN
THE 10TH PERCENTILE TO THE 24TH PERCENTILE/.

FORECAST...

WHILE RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NOVEMBER...
THE MONTH IS EXPECTED TO FINISH WITH LESS THAN USUAL PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE ARE TRANSITIONING FROM EL NINO /WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ TO A POSSIBLE LA NINA
/COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER/. THIS MAY INFLUENCE WHAT IS TO COME THIS
WINTER. IN THE PAST FIVE TRANSITIONS FROM EL NINO TO NEUTRAL OR
LA NINA CONDITIONS...PRECIPITATION IN ARKANSAS WAS CLOSE TO AVERAGE
THREE TIMES AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TWICE DURING THE WINTER /DECEMBER
THROUGH FEBRUARY/.

YEARS               DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY          DEPARTURE

1959/1960                    12.73                       +0.61
1966/1967                     7.83                       -4.29
1983/1984                    12.66                       +0.54
1992/1993                    12.57                       +0.45
2005/2006                     7.86                       -4.26

THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR
A DRIER THAN AVERAGE WINTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...INCLUDING
ARKANSAS. THIS IMPLIES THAT OUR DROUGHT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND PROBABLY WORSEN IN THE WEEKS AHEAD.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK/DROUGHT.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTP://WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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