Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs are now seen developing to the northeast and with
northeast low level winds these CIGs should advect into the area
in a couple of hours. Conditions will improve around noon then
even lower CIGs are expected to redevelop tonight 00-06Z and
remain through the end of the forecast period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Generally northerly flow aloft is expected to continue this weekend
and into the middle of next week due to a nearly stationary upper
ridge centered across the southwest United States. Currently radar
indicating scattered thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle.
Outflow from these storms could spark new convection and clip the
northern and eastern Permian with precipitation this morning
before dissipating as a more stable airmass develops. Further
south a cold front was currently near the Pecos River in west
Texas. This front will continue to push south today into Mexico.
The better chance of convection will shift south this afternoon
across across the lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend closest to the
departing front in the unstable airmass. Looking for much cooler
temperatures (below normal most areas) behind the front today as
cooler air advects in from the northeast.

Tonight through Monday night will feature the continued chance
for showers and thunderstorms across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico with much cooler temperatures continuing. This scenario will
occur in a widespread moist upslope flow regime with a continual
stream of upper level disturbances tracking into the region from a
northerly direction.

Beyond Monday night through the remainder of the week, the flow
aloft will become more westerly. A warming trend will commence as
a surface trough and low level thermal ridging redevelops.
Thunderstorms will be possible in the mountains in intense heating
each day. Storms will also be possible in portions of the plains
of west Texas on several days as upper level disturbances interact
with mid level moisture and intense diurnal heating along the
surface trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79  69  82  68 /  30  40  40  50
Carlsbad                       84  69  88  68 /  20  40  30  30
Dryden                         96  74  92  73 /  30  20  30  10
Fort Stockton                  84  70  90  69 /  20  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 77  64  81  63 /  20  40  30  40
Hobbs                          79  65  81  65 /  10  40  30  40
Marfa                          84  64  87  62 /  30  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           82  69  85  69 /  20  40  30  40
Odessa                         81  69  85  69 /  20  30  30  40
Wink                           85  70  89  69 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10



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