000
FXUS64 KMAF 181954
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 60S...THANKS TO
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO THE
LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WITH
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
SAGGING INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WE COULD
GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THINK THE ATMOSPHERE MAY A LITTLE WORKED
OVER FROM YESTERDAY SO CHANCES ARE SMALL. THINK THE BEST CHANCE IS
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAIN.

GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TOMORROW THEN TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MEXICO BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GENERATE QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES COINCIDING WITH A MID LEVEL
THETA E AXIS AND A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE PECOS AND RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY
THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  98  72  95  /  20   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              72  97  73  97  /  20   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                71 101  72 101  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76  97  75  96  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  99  73  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  94  69  94  /  10  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   69  97  69  96  /  20  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   61  92  61  92  /  30  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  98  74  97  /  10   0  10   0
ODESSA TX                  74  99  75  97  /  10   0  10  10
WINK TX                    74 101  73 100  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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