-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
340
FXUS64 KMAF 052347
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
647 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Today is much quieter than yesterday. A cool and stable airmass
behind yesterday`s cold front has allowed a low cloud deck to move
in and keep temps in the 60s and 70s. Very nice for early May. All
of the rain has moved out of the area though a few hi-res models
show there may be some scattered showers forming later this
afternoon in the Davis Mountains.

An upper trough quickly swings out of the western U.S. and into the
Great Plains Monday. Winds shift around from the southwest and west
and pushing clouds to the east and bringing in more seasonal
temperatures as highs reach the 80s and 90s. Drier air advected in
from the west will prevent any chance for rain.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The overall synoptic pattern keeps things quiet for the
start of the extended forecast period. A potent trough lifts into
the northern Great Plains and transitions into an upper-low while
doing so. This places the southern Great Plains firmly under zonal
flow through Tuesday and Wednesday. This acts to keep temperatures
hot and slightly above normal across the bulk of the region. Expect
mostly sunny skies with temperatures mainly in the 90s. Any 80s will
be confined to the higher elevations and northern portions of the
region. 100s are set to return to the Big Bend. Thankfully, the
building heat is generally short-lived. The upper low over the
northern Great Plains begins to merge with another trough entering
the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday into Thursday. By Thursday
afternoon this is then expected to divide into two lobes of
vorticity. One becomes an open trough the moves across the Great
Lakes and the other is another upper-low over the Great Basin. Two
things inevitably happen as this occurs. At first, a cold front is
pushed through the area as the Great Lakes trough moves east.
Temperatures respond by falling several degrees across the northern
tier of the area Thursday before the front clears the area Friday
cooling the rest of the region. At this point, the upper low over
the Great Basin results in southwesterly flow aloft across the
southern Great Plains and the return of lee troughing. Slowly
warming temperatures and increasing moisture back into the region is
forecast to begin by next weekend. Weak disturbances may then
propagate into the Great Plains aided by the upper-low. This is
expected to at least bring the return of an isolated to scattered
thunderstorm threat to portions of the area. This is our next shot
of rain after this active weekend.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

MVFR CIGs have been very stubborn at MAF. Current satellite shows
them thinning out and still expecting a brief rise to VFR before
IFR conditions set back in near 06Z. Lower CIGs expected to arrive
at other TAF sites as well but an early southwesterly wind shift
should improve conditions to VFR early. Gusty winds will create
light low level turbulence Monday by 18Z.

Hennig
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Unfortunately, recent rainfall has only occurred from the western
Permian Basin to the Davis Mountains and east. This is maintaining
continued ERCs above the 90th percentile for the bulk of our
westernmost areas. Critical relative humidity develops each
afternoon behind the dryline which is pushed east of the area by
Monday. While winds remain generally light this afternoon that
changes on Monday. A potent trough brings strong westerly winds
across the area which will support widespread critical fire
weather conditions across the west over the critically dry fuels.
A Red Flag Warning has therefore been issued for these areas.
Similar conditions are maintained on Tuesday with breezy zonal
flow maintained. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Tuesday
for the same areas with fire weather products likely needed again
on Wednesday. A cold front is expected to begin to enter the
picture on Thursday and clear the region by Friday. This puts an
end to fire weather concerns with cooler temperatures and slightly
better moisture expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  90  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 58  88  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   67  97  64  97 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            64  93  60  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           58  78  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    59  87  49  89 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    51  84  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     65  89  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   66  89  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     63  92  57  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ Monday for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...10