Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210929
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
329 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight has been fairly uneventful across the region with overnight
temperatures in the 40s and 50s and a bit of high clouds moving
overhead. Temperatures will warm quickly after sunrise, ahead of
an approaching cold front. Winds look to shift to the north around
mid morning for areas along and north of I-20 then areawide by
mid day. Wind speeds 20 to 25 mph sustained can be expected with
gusts around 30 to 35 mph. With very dry air in place, these winds
may briefly result in elevated fire weather concerns. Please see
the Fire Weather section below for more details. Temperatures may
fall slightly during the afternoon but it looks like the coolest
air will arrive later tonight as surface high pressure sinks south
into the area. Wind speeds will also diminish and the surface
high move in. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week with
highs generally in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The cool weather will be short-lived with a warming trend
beginning Thanksgiving Day as upper ridging amplifies to the west
and slowly shifts east through the weekend. Friday looks to be
the warmest day of the week with west/southwest downsloping winds
pushing temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s. We will get a
weak front Saturday, knocking temperatures down slightly for the
weekend but the region looks to remain dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WV imagery shows NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, courtesy of an upper ridge off the coast of Baja.  A very
dry AMS is in place, w/a PWAT from the 00Z Tue KMAF RAOB at a measly
40% of normal.  Latest sfc obs show poor RH recovery tonight,
especially SE NM and areas south, where a westerly sfc wind
component is keeping better dewpoints to the east at bay.

These conditions can only deteriorate as sfc flow veers to NW ahead
of an incoming cold front, and temperatures climb to 5-10 or more
degrees abv normal before the front hits.  Areas along the front
could see brief critical fire conditions as frontal winds arrive,
but cooler temps behind the front should alleviate critical RH
shortly thereafter.  ERC in the Trans Pecos remains slightly above-
normal, and right at normal in the Southern Plains.  Due to the
marginal nature of this event, we`ll continue with a RFD through
this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  36  58  40 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       74  35  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         79  41  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  39  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  37  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  33  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  31  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  37  60  40 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         73  37  60  40 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  36  61  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/27



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