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000
FXUS64 KMAF 232349
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.

EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP.  LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION.  KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT.  THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.  RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK.  MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$