Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 151013
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
413 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Severe storms and heavy rain possible across the area today...

Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the
Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin.
First I`ll take on the freezing rain. Isentropic upglide continues
within the cold air north of a front that is currently along the
Rio Grande. This cold air has been stubborn to erode and models
have handled it very poorly. The saving grace this morning is that
dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
Also, rain is falling through a very thick warm layer aloft and
helping to warm temperatures even more. We didn`t see many issues
Saturday morning and don`t anticipate any today. That being said,
a few slick spots could still develop on bridges and overpasses
from Lamesa to Snyder. Dense fog has also lasted into the early
morning, but is beginning to let up as rain continues to
increase.

Next up is the severe weather threat. The upper low causing all the
fun this morning has begun to lift northeast and will move directly
over our area today. Strong storms and heavy rain are moving slowly
east across the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. This initial wave
of rain will move into the Permian Basin through the morning and
remain elevated with heavy rain being the main threat. Later this
morning, a surface low will develop near Pecos and a warm front
will lift north across the Permian Basin. This will bring moist,
unstable air into the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will be possible in this area
by early afternoon. Meanwhile, strong bulk shear will support
organized convection including supercells. Additional storms will
likely develop late this morning over the higher terrain along a
cold front. These storms will lift into the unstable airmass and
be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. An isolated
tornado is not out of the question especially across the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where low level shear is
greatest. Heavy rain will also accompany the storms and may cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper low will shift into the Plains Monday as a secondary upper
trough lags behind to our west. This will likely keep
temperatures near normal across the area into midweek. A few
showers will also be possible especially across the southern
portions of the region. Another storm system will begin to affect
the area late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  37  59  36 / 100  30   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  37  58  34 /  90  20   0  10
Dryden                         71  44  69  45 /  70  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  65  40  63  39 /  80  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  35  50  34 /  90  20   0  10
Hobbs                          40  33  56  31 / 100  20   0  10
Marfa                          58  29  58  30 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  38  60  35 / 100  20   0   0
Odessa                         53  37  60  35 / 100  10   0   0
Wink                           51  36  60  34 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/29



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