Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 222320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. The most
significant precipitation the next 24 hours will be confined to
near the Guadalupe Mountains and immediate adjacent plains.
Confidence was high enough to add a tempo group group for MVFR
conditions in showers and fog at KCNM through 04z this evening.
Otherwise confidence was not high enough to mention any
precipitation at any of the terminals through the next 24 hours.
Included TEMPO MVFR ceilings at KMAF from 11z to 15z Tuesday
morning.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge stretches over the region with the remains of T.S.
Odile continuing to rotate around the area.  This will result in
potential for more heavy rain for Southeast New Mexico and parts of
West Texas tonight... however that looks to be ending.  An upper
trough will move ashore the west coast Wednesday/Thursday and push
to the Great Basin by Saturday. This will help to weaken the
ridge.

Heavy rain continues to fall this afternoon over South Central and
Southeast New Mexico... and from west of ELP to Andrews.  The rain
is tropical in nature producing heavier rain than would be expected.
Some of the heaviest rain today has been around the Guadalupe Mtns
National Park... since 12z rainfall totals included Bat Draw
0.99... Mckittrick Canyon 1.95... Pinery 2.45... The Bowl at 4.69
inches.

Still dealing with ongoing flooding across Eddy county and along the
Pecos River between Mentone and Pecos.  Surface flow will remain out
of SE to S which will keep low level moisture high.  Current dewpts
range from around 60 in the east to 72 at CNM.  the MAF 12z sounding
still have a PW of 1.7 inches which is down from 1.9 inches Sunday
morning.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible tonight.
Have trimmed some of the eastern counties from the Flash Flood Watch
as they have not received as much rain lately... but extended the
watch out through tonight for Southeast New Mexico... the Upper
Trans Pecos... and Van Horn/Hwy 54 corridor.

In the short term temperatures will be increasing as more sunshine
can be expected.  In the long term temperatures should remain near
or below normal in the 80s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

80/72

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