Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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480
FXUS64 KMAF 040517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1117 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly IFR conditions in occasional light drizzle and fog is
expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals
overnight and most of Sunday morning. Expecting some improvement
toward 04/18Z with mainly MVFR ceilings by Sunday afternoon. North
to northeast winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Colder than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as
rain, and a mix of wintry precipitation in the mountains, continues
ahead of a cutoff upper level low.  Despite a slightly different
track of the ua low from previous runs, temperatures will remain
near to below normal into next week before an even colder airmass
impinges upon the region mid next week.

A cutoff low swirling over the Gulf of California, or about halfway
down the Baja Peninsula, will track slowly southeastward today and
tonight, then eastward over north central Mexico Sunday, before
ejecting northeastward into central Texas Sunday night and Monday.
Two or three rounds of rain will develop through Sunday night as
discrete shortwave troughs eject over the region ahead of/around this
upper low, in addition to very moist low level upslope flow resulting
in patchy drizzle and fog in between rain rounds.

The 03/12Z MAF sounding indicated a PWat of 0.94 inches, which
verified model progs of 0.75 - 1.0".  This atmospheric water
content is 2-3 S.D. above normal for this time of year.  Several
locations had 0.5-0.75" of rainfall in the last 24 hours, with a
couple of locations coming in around 1".  Although the ua low
looks like it will take a track a bit farther south than previous
model runs indicated, we could see similar amounts due in part to
isolated thunderstorms, but mainly south of Interstate 10 before
precipitation ends Sunday night/Monday from northwest to southeast.
Model forecast soundings support a mix of rain and snow in the
Guadalupe, Davis and Chisos Mountains sporadically tonight, and
Sunday morning, but marginal temperatures through the atmospheric
column and relatively warm ground temperatures will likely limit
accumulations to little, to none. Considered adding freezing rain,
but again, relatively warm ground should prevent much if any ice
accumulation in the higher elevations of the mountains.  The only
other near term concern is northeast gap winds through Guadalupe
Pass. Since wind speeds will trend down this afternoon, will
cancel the High Wind Warning.

Temperatures will moderate to near normal Monday and Tuesday,
although there are some indications a cold front may dip south into
the area Tuesday, be pushed out of the region Tuesday night, then be
followed by an arctic airmass Wednesday or Wednesday night.  There
is also some indication the base of the ua trough, which will help
usher the colder air into the region, will move over the area and
possibly develop some precipitation behind the arctic front
Wednesday night and Thursday.  Since there is a fair amount of
disagreement on this occurring, will not carry any mention of
precipitation for these time frames.  Initial indications are low
temperatures will be 5-15 degrees below normal, and high
temperatures 15-25 degrees below normal, behind the arctic front.
Model disparities will prevent any further detail at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  41  48  40 /  80  60  30  40
Carlsbad                       43  37  47  33 /  80  50  20  10
Dryden                         57  47  51  41 /  70  70  70  80
Fort Stockton                  49  39  45  38 /  80  70  70  60
Guadalupe Pass                 40  33  42  33 /  80  60  40  10
Hobbs                          41  36  45  31 /  80  50  10  10
Marfa                          51  35  42  31 /  80  70  70  50
Midland Intl Airport           46  40  48  39 /  80  60  40  40
Odessa                         45  39  47  38 /  80  60  40  30
Wink                           47  41  47  39 /  80  60  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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