Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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517
FXUS64 KMAF 200431
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1031 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Wind will remain elevated overnight out of the south and shift
around to the west tomorrow as a dryline pushes east. Could be a
few showers during the day most likely near to east of MAF but
conditions should remain VFR. A cold front will blow into the area
late in the TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar shows some weak echoes across the area and the HRRR,
which handled yesterday pretty well, shows precipitation
increasing this evening mainly south of I-20 due to increasing
lift from an approaching trough and favorable upper jet placement.
The trough is also causing strong winds in the Guadalupe
Mountains which should continue into Tuesday morning, so have
extended the High Wind Warning through 18Z Tue.

The trough moves east Tuesday pushing a cold front through the
area early Wednesday. Much colder air will advect in behind the
front with temperatures possibly dropping below freezing Wednesday
night in the northern Permian Basin. All models are showing light
QPF (0.01-0.04") which seems to indicate light drizzle or freezing
drizzle developing as opposed to rain or freezing rain. Therefore
have kept the PoPs low but added mention of patchy L/-ZL and will
carefully monitor for the potential for wintry weather. Due to the
low QPF, any impacts are not expected to be significant. Thursday
will be warmer so any rainfall should be all liquid and not pose
any hazard at all. Moisture will hold to the east as the week ends
so no further precip is expected, with temps rising back to near
normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  73  37  43 /  20   0  10  30
Carlsbad                       48  65  38  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         56  79  53  64 /  40   0  20  20
Fort Stockton                  52  72  42  51 /  30   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 41  55  37  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          43  64  33  42 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          38  66  34  60 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           51  71  36  42 /  20   0  10  20
Odessa                         51  70  37  43 /  20   0  10  20
Wink                           47  70  40  49 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$



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