Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 072336
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
636 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
See 00Z aviation discussion below.
Strong to severe TS is moving into SE NM and W TX this evening but
should be diminishing in strength shortly with the loss of daytime
heating. More showers and storms will develop through the
remainder of the TAF period with variable gusty winds and heavy
rain the main threat. MVFR/IFR conditions expected a few hours
either side of 12Z as well as in any of the heavier showers/storms.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/
The main focus for the forecast package will continue to be the
potential for flooding/flash flooding across many areas over the
next couple of days... A Flash Flood remains for the western half of
the CWA Wednesday.
An upper low, currently located over southeast AZ, will continue its
slow progression E/SE today, overspreading large scale forcing for
ascent across the region through at least Thursday. Yesterday, a few
thunderstorms affected western zones as well as the Davis Mountain
regions during the afternoon/evening hours. Some of the storms were
heavy rain producers and as a result, the Rio Grande River at
Candelaria briefly rose above flood stage late last night. This may
be the beginning of what is to come over the next few days.
Will begin to see an uptick in showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight, particularly across SE NM, Upper Trans Pecos
and south through the Marfa Plateau and Rio Grande Valley. Similar
to yesterday, some storms could be severe through the evening hours
generally across the Van Horn and the Hwy 54 corridor/Rio Grande
Valley regions. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for these
areas through 08/02Z. Regardless, heavy rainfall will continue to be
the main threat with 1-3" of rainfall possible across these areas
through Thursday morning. Flooding/flash flooding is expected
especially across urban areas and where soils are already saturated.
The axis of heaviest rain looks to shift south and east toward the
southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions
Thursday into Thursday night but depending on the exact placement of
the upper low, could see main precip area shift even farther south
for this time period. For now, will continue likely PoPs across
these areas. Potential impacts today through Friday may include;
flooded urban roadways and rural low water crossings, flooding of
low flowing arroyos/creeks and potentially rivers, including those
in SE NM. Reduced visibility in short distances may impact airports
and auto travel.
Friday, the upper low begins to retrograde west and rain chances
will shift south and decrease throughout the day. Clearing skies and
Drier weather expected this weekend and into the beginning of next
work week with the return of upper ridging. Below normal high
temperatures expected through Saturday due to rain/cloud cover then
temperatures are expected to rebound to above normal readings next
NM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache
Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.