Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191132
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
632 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated -SHRA/TS this morning should miss all TAF sites. More TS
will develop this afternoon across the entire area but only have
confidence to place it in the FST TAF for now. Otherwise VFR
conditions.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 433 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Pacific Northwest with zonal flow over
the CWA. A few storms are currently across portions of the area. A
dryline is expected to develop across eastern portions of the area
this afternoon with thunderstorms possible. A few of these storms
may become severe with large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures
are expected to be similar to yesterday with highs about 10
degrees above normal.

Storm chances appear to be mostly confined to the Davis Mountains
southward to the Rio Grande on Wednesday. The upper trough over
the northwest part of the country digs further south on Thursday.
An abundant supply of moisture will be across the area with a
slight chance of thunderstorms. The upper trough moves further
east on Friday providing an increase in upper lift. Thunderstorm
chances will mostly be across the western CWA. Temperatures will
start trending downward with the falling heights from the upper
trough. The upper lift increases on Saturday as the upper trough
gets closer so storm chances increase across the western CWA. This
same trend will continue into Sunday with temperatures near normal
and storms possible. Storm chances increase across eastern
portions of the area on Monday with the upper trough even closer
than before and abundant moisture remaining across the area. This
same trend continues into Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms will be
possible as this upper trough approaches with chances increasing
this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  70  97  72 /  30  20  10  20
Carlsbad                       97  66  96  66 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         98  73  97  74 /  30  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  96  71  96  71 /  30  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 90  64  86  65 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          93  64  92  64 /  30  10  10   0
Marfa                          88  60  88  59 /  30  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           96  71  97  72 /  30  20  10  10
Odessa                         96  71  97  72 /  30  20  10  10
Wink                           98  69  97  71 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10


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