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000
FXUS64 KMAF 140844
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
344 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The region is firmly beneath southwesterly flow aloft this morning,
ahead of a departing mid-level ridge to the east and a deepening
trough churning over the northwestern California Coast. Locally,
despite the ridge moving to the east, temperatures will warm at
least a couple degrees above yesterday areawide in thanks to a 850mb
thermal ridge over the region as well as west-southwesterly
downslope flow that develops by this afternoon due to lee troughing
to the north. Highs are progged to top out in the upper 80s west and
lower to middle 90s east, with lower 100s through the Rio Grande
Valley in the Big Bend. Mother Nature comes calling today, with what
almost certainly looks to be our first 90 degree day of 2024, with a
forecast high of 92 degrees in Midland. These unseasonably warm
temperatures as well as the persistently dry conditions and breezy
downslope winds will produce another round of elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon for western portions of the area. More on
this (as well as Monday`s critical fire weather conditions) can be
found in the Fire Weather Discussion below.

After the relatively quiescent day today, southerly to southeasterly
return flow will continue in earnest tonight across the Permian
Basin, Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau. This will bring abundant
Gulf moisture into the region, with dewpoints in the lower 60s
across far eastern zones and in the 50s as far west as the TX/NM
state line by daybreak Monday. The influx of moisture will also keep
temperatures well above normal tonight, with lows only expected to
drop into the 60s for most locations.

Monday morning, the aforementioned trough to the west will already
be crossing the Great Basin toward the Four Corners Region, then
continuing its eastward trek across the Rockies through the evening.
The core of this low will pass to the north of the region, and thus,
continuing the trend this spring, we`ll see little beneficial
rainfall, and lots of wind (and dust). As the trough`s attendant jet
noses into the region, winds ramp up across the Guadalupe Mountains
late morning into early afternoon, and despite the jet`s core (~110-
120kt at 300 hPa) remaining just to the north of the region over
eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle, high winds are
still expected to develop across the mountains of Southeast New
Mexico and Southwest Texas. The strongest winds are expected in the
Guadalupe Mountains where gusts to 75 mph will be possible, and to a
lesser degree, the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains, where
gusts to 65 mph are possible. The High Wind Watch remains in effect,
and now includes the Davis Mountains beginning Monday afternoon,
with likely Advisory conditions across the adjacent plains, possibly
expanding across the Trans Pecos into the western Permian Basin,
with wind headlines expected with the next forecast package. These
strong westerly to southwesterly winds will maintain well above
normal temperatures on Monday, with highs similar to those expected
today, in the middle to upper 80s west and lower to middle 90s east,
and 100s along the Rio Grande. As to be expected, critical fire
weather conditions will result across Southeast New Mexico and a
large swath of West Texas during the afternoon, and continuing into
the evening.

In addition to the earth (dust), wind, and fire, we`ll also have a
severe weather threat with which to contend on Monday. As the
westerly to southwesterly winds ramp up across the west, the dryline
will sharpen and rapidly push eastward through the afternoon,
resulting in possible storm development during the late afternoon
across the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.
CAMs disagree somewhat in the timing and location of convective
initiation, though several models indicate at least some development
in the 22Z-23Z time frame (5PM-6PM CDT) in these areas, with any
storms that develop progged to quickly move east-northeastward, with
large hail and damaging winds the primary concern. Heading into the
evening, the dryline will retreat and collide with the trough`s
advancing Pacific front, potentially resulting in a second round of
storms through the evening, especially across the Permian Basin.
More on this can be found below.

JP


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The severe weather threat will be ongoing through Monday night with
storms confined to areas east of the dryline, which looks to set up
from Gail to Big Spring and down to McCamey. While it`s possible
this line may push further west Monday afternoon, the main severe
threat will remain across the far east through Monday evening. Model
soundings continue to support mainly a wind and hail threat with
steep lapse rates and limited moisture on Monday, and CAPE values
have been sitting steady at ~2000 J/kg in recent runs. As winds
across the west begin to die down after sunset, storms may continue
for the eastern counties through midnight before moving east and out
of the CWA. The upper level low responsible for the active weather on
Monday will move up into the Central Plains early Tuesday morning,
and southwest flow aloft will develop over the area. With elevated
winds continuing Monday night, there won`t be much in terms of
a rebound in moisture and overnight humidity may only reach
around 20% by sunrise on Tuesday, indicating another day for fire
weather concerns.

Flow aloft becomes more zonal by Wednesday, helping maintain hot and
dry conditions with highs mainly in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday,
although winds will be substantially lighter both days. The next
system, a broad upper level trough stretching across Canada, looks
to push a strong cold front down into the area sometime Friday,
which could bring about below-normal temperatures and increasing
rain chances for the weekend.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions continue the next 24 hours. Southerly to
southeasterly winds tonight will veer to the west/southwest after
12Z, with elevated and intermittently gusty conditions possible
for CNM/HOB during the afternoon. Gusts diminish after 15/00Z as
winds shift to the southeast at all but CNM/HOB, becoming elevated
at FST due to the return of the nocturnal low-level jet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Ongoing elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions today as
above normal temperatures return and critical humidity meets
elevated 20ft winds. The main concern remains the ERCs and fuel
moisture, with ERCs in the 75th+ percentile, and fuels dry to
critically dry for much of the region. A Fire Danger Statement has
been issued for this afternoon for Southeast New Mexico and the
Guadalupe Mountains where the strongest 20ft winds will be today,
collocated with humidity as low as 5%. Overnight recovery will be
poor across the west and good to very good across the east before
minimum humidity once again falls to single digits on Monday. Very
strong 20ft winds develop on Monday ahead of an approaching upper
low, and humidity falls to around 4-5% Monday afternoon across the
west. A sharpening dryline across the east looks to aid storm
development Monday afternoon and evening which may cause gusty and
erratic winds. For the west, strong winds and very low humidity
along with critically dry fuels will create extreme fire weather
conditions and a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Poor overnight
recovery is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning for most of
the region, with some spots not seeing humidity get above 20%.

Even as 20ft winds decrease Tuesday and Wednesday with the departure
of the low, critically low humidity will continue both afternoons
and the aforementioned ERCs and low fuel moisture express the need
for additional fire products these days. There may finally be a
break nearing the end of the week as a cold front looks to push
through, bringing a return of moisture and cooler temperatures
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  64  93  56 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                 89  60  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   92  64  93  59 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            94  65  97  56 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           80  60  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    88  58  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    88  56  89  43 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     92  64  94  55 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   92  65  93  56 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     93  61  94  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Monday for Andrews-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...84