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000
FXUS64 KMAF 151722
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE
NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT /AOB 10KT/
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COUPLE OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CIGS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AT KHOB AND KMAF BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN MOIST UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA AND FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COMBINES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL PERMIAN
BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING
STRONGER. FAVORED AREAS FOR ANY STORMS WOULD BE THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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