Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 182031
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

After a foggy morning, skies have become partly to mostly sunny
this afternoon, with locations across the area on target to hit
high temperatures well into the 50s and 60s, close to normal for
this time of year. As the trough responsible for the cool, damp
weather lifts toward the Great Lakes tomorrow, shortwave ridging
will develop over the region ahead of the next trough across the
western CONUS. At the surface, a lee trough will develop, which
will result in increasing westerly winds and downslope warming,
allowing temperatures tomorrow to climb roughly 10 degrees above
normal areawide, in the 60s and 70s for most locations. A few
spots across higher terrain could see highs in the middle to upper
50s.

The primary concern through the next 7 days will mainly be high
winds, which look to affect the Guadalupe Mountains for most of
the forecast period. Per latest guidance, a prolonged High Wind
event is becoming more likely, lasting from tomorrow morning
potentially into early next week, with greatest impacts expected
across the Guadalupe Mountains where westerly winds could gust to
70 mph. Higher elevations of the Davis Mountains are also
expected to see very windy conditions, with gusts to 60 to 65 mph
possible. While there could be lulls in the windy conditions,
these lulls are expected to be brief, thus have have gone ahead
and upgraded the High Wind Watch on Thursday to a High Wind
Warning, and extended it until 12Z Friday morning. This will
likely wind up extended further in later forecast packages, though
for now, will keep it short and sweet to avoid potential
confusion. The southeastern New Mexico and west Texas plains will
also see windy conditions the next few days, with gusts to 35 to
45 mph possible.

The driving forces behind the expected windy conditions are a
series of troughs progged to pass north of the region, with
increased westerlies at their southern periphery. The
aforementioned western CONUS trough will develop a negative tilt
as it skirts north of the area on Friday, with an accompanying
Pacific front expected to bring slightly cooler temperatures on
Saturday. Models continue to generate precipitation early on
Saturday across the west, gradually shifting east during the
afternoon. Have maintained rain chances at this time, however,
available moisture may be lacking, thus will keep overall QPF on
the low side of guidance. The passing trough will push a weak cold
front through the region on Sunday with little fanfare other than
a cool down to near normal temperatures. Weak ridging will return
on Monday, resulting in another warm up, and a potential lull in
the windy conditions for most of the area. However, another trough
is progged to move from the Four Corners Region into the Plains
on Tuesday, which will see a return to windy to very windy
conditions for most of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  66  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         44  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  70  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  54  36  52 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          37  64  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  60  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  67  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  65  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  68  39  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday to 6 AM CST
     /5 AM MST/ Friday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

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