Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 150500
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...

The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours consist of the
potential for low cigs, strong winds and thunderstorms affecting
terminals tonight through early morning as a strong cold front
barrels south through the region. Currently the front is just north
of HOB and will arrive shortly. The front will reach FST last,
around 10Z. Hi-res models indicate thunderstorms will develop along
the front as it reaches HOB tonight, affecting most terminals. In
addition, north winds will increase to near 20-30kt sustained with
higher gusts, occasionally up to 40kt at times. Wind speed look to
diminish around sunset or perhaps mid morning. Low confidence in the
potential for low cigs but will keep mention in at MAF, PEQ and FST
for now. Will continue to monitor conditions and amend when needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure centered from east Texas to
the Gulf coast states will slowly flatten and move east through
Sunday as a large upper level storm system moves across the center
of the nation. An associated strong surface cold front will
plunge through the forecast area beginning after 15/05z tonight
and barrel toward the Mexican border toward sunrise Sunday. Windy
conditions are expected to develop areawide behind this front
later tonight and early Sunday morning due to an impressive
surface pressure gradient. Will likely see at least a couple of
hours of wind advisory criteria so have opted to issue a Wind
Advisory for southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas late
tonight or Sunday morning. The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
Pass will continue late tonight and Sunday morning as strong
northeast winds dam and channel through that location behind the
front. Strong forcing with the upper trough and right rear quadrant
of the jet should also aid in the development of widely scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region tonight.
The most numerous activity is expected to be across the Permian
Basin closet to the forcing with the trough and jet.

Some lingering showers are expected Sunday, especially in the
morning across west Texas with the passage of the upper trough
axis and jet.

Much cooler and below normal temperatures are expected Sunday
and Monday behind this system as a large surface high from the
rockies to the northern plains builds south into the region.
Dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures are expected next
week as the surface high slowly moves east and southerly winds
return to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  66  39  70 /  80  20   0   0
Carlsbad                       51  68  40  71 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         59  71  51  74 /  30  30   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  64  46  72 /  50  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  60  43  67 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                          47  66  36  69 /  50  10   0   0
Marfa                          49  62  41  71 /  40  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           51  65  41  70 /  70  30   0   0
Odessa                         51  65  40  70 /  70  30   0   0
Wink                           53  66  41  72 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for Central Lea County-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Sunday for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to noon CDT Sunday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 11 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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