Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 161952
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...As of 1:45 PM CST Thursday...continued dry with
temps becoming above normal into Saturday.

An upper low centered over Northern Sinaloa Mexico will move
northeast right over the CWA tonight. Due to this feature being
moisture starved it will have little sensible impact on our
weather. Ridging will build over the area ahead of a strong trof
moving into Southern and Central CA. Have kept the High Wind Watch
for the Guadalupe Mtns for Friday. While the mid level flow not
impressive and the Watch is marginal...the favorable sfc flow
from the west is convincing enough to keep it going.

After dry and warm weather Friday/Saturday the upper trough moving
into CA will elongate as it moves east. Low level return flow will
bring an increase in moisture with dew pts in the 50s across most
of the CWA Sat night/Sunday. It appears that a Dry line/Pacific
front will develop on Sunday. Based on the 12Z GFS/ECMWF model
runs it appears that the majority of the strong convection will be
east of the CWA. The 15Z SREF run keeps the best instability to
the east of the CWA as well. However...being several days out have
kept the pops as is. If convection does form in our CWA it could
be strong to marginally severe. With the vertical wind profile
being basically unidirectional (from the south) the main threat
would be heavy rain...however marginally severe hail can`t be
ruled out.

The upper trough slowly moves east of the CWA Monday with ridging
building into the Southern Plains Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of the
next upper trough crashing into the Pacific NW/Northern CA Coast.
This trough will move across the Central Plains next Thursday/
Friday. As of now...it looks like the CWA will be in for dry
weather and strong winds the end of next week.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  59  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  71  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  64  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  75  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/33



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