Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221855
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM
tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw
across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W
TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. Lift will be
modulated by mid level LR`s 7h-5h of 8-8.5 LR`s and MLCAPES of
1000-1500 J/KG result. A low level thermal/moisture gradient will
develop across ern NM too. This is a good pattern for tstms (MCS)
to develop in, bulk shear is forecast to be over 50kts and severe
storms are expected. 0-1km and 0-3km SRH do depict 300 m2/s2 or
so along the outflow, but LCLs are high, thus a non-zero
probability of a tornado. NAM12 continues to have the QPF max
across the e and GFS a little farther w. Confidence is high that
severe storms will come out somewhere between INK-SNK. There could
even be 2 separate areas of storms, one that initiates in far SE
NM or W PB and another off to the nw initiating in ern NM or the
wrn S Plain. The forecast already has high PoPs in and will
probably not make too much change. Recent heavy rainfall across
Mitchell/Scurry/Howard Counties does raise concern for at least
localized flash flooding and responses along Colorado River and
tributaries. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in
agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be
noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely
break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a
strong trend from the lower left to upper right. 85h temps 31C and
downslope wind will easily push temps into the U90s-L100s.
Dryline will probably hang up across far srn CWFA, may be storm in
Terrell Co.. A little cooler but still hot Fri-Sat with a
possible front on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  72  52  85 /  80  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       55  74  51  91 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         64  78  57  86 /  30  40  10   0
Fort Stockton                  59  72  54  89 /  50  40  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 54  68  52  85 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          52  69  48  84 /  60  20  10   0
Marfa                          53  75  48  88 /  30  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  72  53  85 /  70  40  10   0
Odessa                         56  71  53  85 /  70  40  10   0
Wink                           58  74  52  89 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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