Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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966
FXUS64 KMAF 162044
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
244 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over West Texas and southeast New Mexico with
another upper trough over the western CONUS. Temperatures today are
expected to be similar to yesterday with highs mostly in the 50s.
Upper lift will be enhanced over the area today with moisture
increasing so there is a chance of showers from the Western Low
Rolling Plains south to the Big Bend area this afternoon and
evening.

The upper trough to the west deepens and approaches the area on
Sunday. Temperatures are expected to increase into the 60s across
most of the area on Sunday. The increase in upper lift will allow
for a chance of precipitation across southeast New Mexico south to
the Van Horn area Sunday into Monday. This second upper trough will
move over the area on Monday night/Tuesday allowing for increased
rain chances across much of the CWA. Zonal flow takes shape over the
region on Wednesday as the previously mentioned upper trough passes
to the east and another upper trough develops and digs southeast
over the western CONUS. This upper trough moves closer to the region
on Thursday with the northern portion of it moving over the Northern
Plains. As a result, a cold front approaches and begins to move into
the area late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Much colder
air will be in place for Friday with highs possibly only reaching
the 30s and 40s across all but along the Rio Grande. The models
greatly diverge on precip output/timing and positioning of the upper
trough with the ECMWF warmer and dry and GFS colder and wet;
although, the ECMWF brings in a secondary cold front Saturday night.
There are indications of possible wintry precipitation across the
area beginning Friday but will have better confidence in this as
time gets closer. The models really diverge on temperatures on
Saturday so do not have much confidence at all for temperatures or
precipitation next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     39  64  38  60 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       37  63  36  60 /   0  20  30  10
Dryden                         39  63  44  62 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  42  68  40  64 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 39  56  40  52 /   0  30  30  10
Hobbs                          32  60  33  57 /   0  10  20  10
Marfa                          28  62  33  62 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           39  65  39  61 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         39  65  39  61 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           35  66  37  61 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

49/80



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