Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 220941
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
441 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
This summer has presented an unusual number of forecast challenges
and this forecast is no exception. Today will be much like
yesterday with highs near normal and widely scattered storms
mainly west of the Pecos River. A cold front will move through the
Texas Panhandle tonight arriving in the Permian Basin Wednesday
morning. The GFS continues to be weakest/slowest with this front
but convective outflow should help push it to at least the Pecos
River valley bringing slightly cooler highs for tomorrow and
increasing rain chances near the frontal boundary. PWATs remain
high so the threat for locally heavy rain/flash flooding will
continue.

The forecast challenge appears late in the week in the form of a
tropical system heading for the Texas coast. This system will
remain to our east so we will not see any direct rainfall from it,
but it will still have an effect on temps and rain chances.
Current models show temps increasing behind the front on Thursday,
then cooling Friday and Saturday as gulf air associated with the
tropical system moves into the CWA. Surface winds will back from
the northeast and the cooler air will reduce rain chances in the
eastern counties though scattered storms should develop west of
the Pecos River where the mountains will aid destabilization. The
NHC is not yet producing a forecast track so prefer the GFS track
of the system which is faster than both the ECMWF and Canadian
models. The latter two models, unlike the GFS, fail to eject the
system northeast with a kicker trough approaching which seems
unusual. A faster system means a return of more normal conditions
early next week with temperatures back to near or slightly above
normal so the extended forecast is a little above MEX guidance.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  71  88  69 /  20  40  50  30
Carlsbad                       94  69  89  69 /  30  30  40  20
Dryden                         93  74  96  73 /  10   0  20  20
Fort Stockton                  94  70  91  69 /  20  20  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 84  64  82  64 /  30  30  30  20
Hobbs                          91  66  84  65 /  30  50  50  20
Marfa                          85  61  85  60 /  40  20  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           94  71  89  69 /  20  40  50  20
Odessa                         94  71  89  69 /  20  40  50  20
Wink                           96  71  92  70 /  20  40  50  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/10


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