Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250959
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
459 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, as sfc pressure
gradients continue to slacken. Light NE winds will give way to
return flow after 00Z Saturday.  A few high clouds are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A pleasant day in store for today as the trough that brought windy
conditions across West Texas and southeast New Mexico continues its
trek eastward.  Brief ridging will be over the area as a surface
high drains south into the area through the morning and early
afternoon hours with light winds and sunny skies. Temperatures in
the upper 70s and 80s are expected for much of the area. The next
trough in a progressive pattern will move ashore today and move
eastward across the Four Corners region.  By Sunday afternoon, it
will be moving across the northern Texas Panhandle and with it windy
conditions will return. Strong upper level winds will accompany this
trough and likely bring high winds to the Guadalupe Mountains again.
Fire weather will also be a concern as low RHs will be in place.
See Fire Weather Discussion below.

A front will slide into the area on Monday, but there will not be
much impact other than a wind shift to the north.  A broad and weak
upper ridge will pass over the area before attention turns to the
next trough swinging southeastward across the western Great Basin.
The upper low is expected to close off and deepen by Monday night as
it cross the Rockies and then pass over New Mexico and the Texas
Panhandle. There will be plenty of moisture return and as such,
there will be a good chance for rain beginning Tuesday and
continuing through Wednesday.  May even see some storms as plenty of
shear and instability will available on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a
front will push south into the Permian Basin through the afternoon
bringing more rain chances and some cooler air with it. There
still some uncertainty with the evolution of this system, so will
need to fine tune the details over the next couple days.

The progressive pattern continues with yet another low expected to
swing southeastward through the Great Basin by the end of the
week.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the next upper trough making landfall on the west
coast.  This feature is forecast to follow the track of the last
one, arriving near the Texas/OK Panhandles at around 18Z Sunday. NAM
forecast soundings for Sunday afternoon mix to ~ 700mb (W 25-35kts),
whereas the GFS goes deeper to ~ 650mb (W 30-40kts), setting up for
critical 20` winds under mostly sunny skies.  Moisture recovery
looks rotten between now and then, and so the afternoon could see a
few hours of critical fire wx as RH bottoms out.  W/Fire Danger high
and ERCs still near the 90th percentile, we`ll issue a watch for the
Guadalupes, SE NM Plains, and areas of Texas south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  54  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       80  50  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         83  54  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  55  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  50  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          75  46  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  36  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           79  53  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         78  53  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  51  85  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06/44



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