Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

000
FXUS64 KMAF 171041
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
541 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mid and high cloud will continue to spread over the region, but
ceilings will stay solidly in VFR territory.  Thunderstorms this
afternoon will most likely affect KCNM or KPEQ, but probability
is too low at either site to mention TSRA.  South to southeast
surface winds will prevail at all area terminals, generally
around 10kt with a few higher gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

Upper ridging is over south Texas and Louisiana, and the CWA is
under southwest flow aloft. Temperatures today are expected to be
slightly cooler than yesterday. There is a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across mainly the higher terrain and
southeast New Mexico with good moisture in place.

The upper ridge becomes more flattened on Monday as an upper
trough moves over the Pacific Northwest. Not much change for
temperatures is expected for Monday and chances of convection
mostly remain confined from the Davis Mountains to the Rio Grande.
The upper trough moves further eastward on Tuesday with westerly
surface winds across much of the area. These west winds will allow
for temperatures to warm up a little bit from the previous day. A
dryline will develop across the far eastern CWA, and there is a
slight chance of storms in this area. Similar conditions will be
in place for Wednesday with another portion of the upper trough
moving over the Pacific Northwest.

On Thursday, the upper trough digs further south increasing upper
lift over the region. South to southeast surface winds will return
to the eastern half of the CWA resulting in an increase in low-
level moisture. Chances of storms increase areawide with
temperatures perhaps decreasing a few degrees. The upper trough
will have more influence over the region on Friday with even
greater low-level moisture coming into the area. The increase in
height falls from the approaching trough will likely result in a
further decrease in temperatures for Friday. This same trend
continues for Saturday with abundant low-level moisture and upper
lift across the area. A cold front pushes into the area on Sunday
further increasing lift. A dryline will be present across the CWA
Thursday through Sunday allowing for a chance of severe
thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor this and mention in the
HWO on later shifts if models are still indicating this trend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  68  93  70 /  20  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       91  65  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                         94  72  95  72 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  92  68  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 83  63  85  65 /  30  20  10  10
Hobbs                          88  63  89  63 /  20  20  20  10
Marfa                          86  59  87  60 /  20  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  68  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         92  68  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           93  68  94  70 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/80



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.