Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 231101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms through the period
with the best chances this afternoon. Outside of thunderstorms,
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will mostly be light and
variable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as persistence rules. Area
radars show convection continuing to slowly diminish, w/batch of
storms that came through KMAF last evening congealing into an MCV in
the southern Permian Basin, while a line of storms that moved south
into Lea County persists near KHOB.  Radar estimates as much as 2-3"
of rain fell in some locations, especially the Permian Basin.

Sat imagery shows lots of convective debris over the area, and
w/abundant moisture and saturated soils in place, temps will
struggle to reach normal today.  A rich theta-e ridge remains in
place, extending from Chihuahua thru Texas and into AR and beyond.
W/multiple residual boundaries knocking about, and continued upslope
return flow, chances are good for redevelopment of widespread
convection this afternoon, especially over the higher terrain. These
chances will dwindle after today as the upper trough over the
Texas/LA coast moves east and the upper ridge recenters over Texas
and strengthens.  This will confine any convection, if any, to the
higher terrain out west into the extended.  Temperatures will slowly
increase throughout the week, nearing the triple digits by the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  74  96  75 /  30  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       93  72  93  72 /  40  10  10  10
Dryden                         97  75  96  76 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  91  73  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 81  68  83  68 /  40  10  10  10
Hobbs                          90  69  90  69 /  50  10  10  10
Marfa                          83  64  87  64 /  50  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  74  96  75 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         93  74  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           94  73  96  74 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/



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