Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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256
FXUS64 KMAF 230745
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Another cool day as this morning`s surface ridging moves e this
PM. 85h temps in the mid teens C favors highs mostly in the 70-75
degree range, per a well mixed boundary layer. Increased wly mid
level flow Mon-Tue will amplify the low level thermal ridge
sending highs temps soaring. On Mon the warmest conditions (M90s)
will be across the Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM and transitioning to
the PB and most all of the Trans Pecos Tue(M90s). Said increased
wly flow will also result in windy to very windy conditions across
most of the plains Mon-Tue, SW 20-30 mph and W 25-35 mph,
respectively. In the mtns winds will be much stronger. Wind
highlights are likely for Tue. By Wed a weak cold front will
knock high temps back into the 80-85 degree range, except warmer
along Rio Grande. On Thur and into Fri we will head right back
into the well above normal temps/windy regime with the presence of
the usual culprits(thermal ridge and downslope winds). An upper
low is likely to be to the N on Sat and high temps will fall back
into the 80s. There is very little chance for low level moisture
to hold a wwd position in this pattern.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire wx concerns are on the increase Mon/Tue across SE NM/GDP
Mtns/Van Horn area. Reports from these areas indicate that other
than some roadside green-up that there is enough cured grass to
carry fire. Yesterday`s cold front and assocd higher RHs have
dropped the ERCs, but a strong drying trend going into Tue suggest
ERCs will have a chance to at least approach the 90th percentile
by Tue there? Critical fire wx conditions are favored across Eddy
Co and GDP Mtns Mon, expanding to all of SE NM/GDP Mtns/Van Horn
areas Tue. RF wx is also likely across the PB however green-up
does preclude greater concerns. We strongly considered issuing a
long lead watch for the GDP Mtns/SE NM for Mon/Tue, but for now we
will reflect increasing concerns in products. With extended period
dry conditions and above normal temps we expect that current
green-up across PB and parts of the Trans Pecos will come to an
end or slowed greatly by late week?

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  51  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  50  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  54  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  56  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          72  49  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  49  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  53  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  53  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  53  94  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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