Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 260945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
445 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough can be seen on Water-vapor moving across the
Four Corners region and will move into the central-southern Great
Plains by this afternoon. The base of this trough will pass over
the area and result in some breezy conditions for much of the
area. Still expect high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains
beginning this morning and continuing into early evening, so will
upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Plenty of dry air will be in
place and combined with the dry air, fire weather conditions will
be on tap for today as well. See Fire Weather Discussion below for
more information. As the aforementioned trough ejects into the
Midwest Sunday night, winds should lighten up out of the west
before a front moves through the Permian Basin and reach the Pecos
River by early morning Monday. The result will be only slightly
cooler high temperatures for the northern Permian Basin and
portions of southeast New Mexico.

The next upper trough in a progressive pattern through the week
will track southeastward Monday and through the Four Corners
region on Tuesday. Increasing southeasterly flow will draw
moisture back into West Texas and southeast New Mexico and a
dryline will set up across the Permian Basin. Steep mid level
lapse rates and strong shear will favor the development of severe
storms east of the dryline Tuesday evening. The main threats will
be large hail and damaging winds. However, parameters are such
that the chance for a tornado can not be ruled out. There is still
a little bit of uncertainty at this time to exactly where the
dryline will set up. Right now the highest risk favors the
central and eastern Permian Basin south into the Lower Trans
Pecos.

Cooler temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s expected on
Wednesday and remain in the 70s for Thursday after the passage of
a cold front. A brief ridge will move over the Texas Panhandle
late in the work week before another low pressure system swings
across the southwest US. Rain and thunderstorms chances look to
return for the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the next upper trough over the Four Corners, and
forecast to reach the Texas/OK Panhandles by around 15Z.  If it was
3-6 hrs slower, higher winds would coincide w/peak mixing/heating,
and afternoon winds would be a little stronger.  NAM forecast
soundings mix to 700 mb (W~25kts) at 21Z, whereas the GFS is a
little deeper at 650mb (W~30kts).  Either way, w/mostly sunny skies
expected, 20` winds should be modestly critical, but widespread.
However, the GFS is preferred, due to past performance in recent
days, and the fact that it is the driest model.  All models came in
too moist, but the GFS is closest to reality.  That said, this
yields RFTIs of 5 or better for most of the current watch area.
Thus, we`ll convert the current watch area to a RFW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  47  81  58 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       82  46  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         92  54  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  86  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  48  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  42  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  38  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  48  82  56 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         82  47  81  56 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           83  45  83  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/06


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