Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 272330
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Finally, the persistent troughing that has dominated our weather
over recent days is exiting to the east, currently moving across
central Texas this afternoon. As we transition to the back side of
this system, weak ridging takes its place. This results in overall
warmer and quieter conditions for the region after this transition.
Today sees the last of the below normal temperatures this afternoon
with the remainder of the post-frontal airmass hanging onto the
area. Temperatures reach the middle 60s to lower 70s under mostly
sunny skies for most locations. Heading into the overnight hours,
winds become light as skies remain clear allowing for excellent
radiational cooling. This leads to another chilly morning tomorrow
with many falling into the 30s. Thursday sees temperatures
continuing their slow but steady increase, returning to above normal
once again. Many can expect sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s
to even low 80s in the river valleys. Thursday night is expected to
be milder as clouds increase and strengthening return flow abate
overnight cooling. Temperatures only cool into the upper 40s and low
50s by Friday morning.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

On Friday, above normal temperatures return to West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico in response to transitioning quasi-zonal to
southwesterly flow aloft and the development of a lee surface
trough to the north of the area. Winds shift to the west and
southwest on Friday, becoming gusty, especially across the
Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains as a weak short wave
traverses north of the area embedded in the southwesterly flow
aloft. While the core of the attendant jet associated with this
short wave will be north of the area, its influence could produce
brief high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains and through
Guadalupe Pass. However, at this time, the wind speeds are
borderline and the event fairly short lived. The net result will
be a breezy to windy day, with downslope warming yielding highs in
the lower to middle 80s for most of the area, with 70s in the
mountains, and 90s along the Rio Grande.

Saturday and Sunday, flow aloft becomes more southwesterly as the
pattern amplifies in response to a deepening trough extending from
the northern Rockies south-southwestward across the Great Basin
to the southern California Coast. Cluster analysis and
deterministic guidance remain in fairly decent agreement regarding
this trough maintaining a positive tilt as it translates eastward
through the weekend and into early next week, with the slow
progression maintaining the southwesterly flow over Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas. Little change to antecedent conditions is
expected locally on Saturday, with temperatures similar to Friday,
and winds a bit lighter than Friday in the wake of the departing
short wave. On Sunday, a low-level thermal ridge is progged to set
up over the region, and the combination of southwesterly flow
aloft and downsloping surface flow will see temperatures soar well
above normal, likely topping out in the 80s and lower 90s for
most both Saturday and Sunday. Lower 90s are progged to expand
northward across portions of the Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans
Pecos and into the far eastern and southeastern Permian Basin. A
fairly substantial cirrus deck will inhibit mixing and insolation
Sunday afternoon, which would keep temperatures from climbing as
high as they otherwise could. That said, ensembles in fairly
decent alignment with the NBM clusters with low to medium (20-50%)
probabilities for temperatures to hit or exceed that 90 degree
threshold across the aforementioned areas. Guidance has kept
Midland right at 88F for Easter Sunday, and this still looks good,
so while it will be warm Sunday, it looks like we`ll stave off
the first 90 degree day a little bit longer.

In addition to the unseasonably warm temperatures, winds increase
again on Sunday as the aforementioned trough moves closer to the
area, and the jet across its southern periphery begins to nose
into the region. For Sunday, guidance is split on the potential
for high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains, though breezy to windy
conditions can be expected, thus those with outdoor plans for the
holiday will need to plan accordingly. The strongest winds
associated with the system arrive Monday into Monday night, and
given the orientation of the trough, these stronger winds look to
develop mainly along and west of the Pecos River. This will bear
watching as well, given potential for another round of near
critical and critical fire weather conditions across a swath of
the region not just on Monday, but also Sunday, depending on the
timing of the trough and jet. In response to the jet, slightly
cooler temperatures are on tap next Monday in the 70s west to
lower 80s east, and 90s along the Rio Grande. As the trough moves
into the Plains Monday night into Tuesday, it will send a cold
front south through the area, resulting in a return to below
normal temperatures as we head into the middle of next week. Highs
in the middle 60s to lower 70s aren`t out of the question, which
would be around 10 degrees below normal for early April. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Northwest winds will diminish in the next hour or two and remain
low overnight, shifting from the south after 12Z and increasing.
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon, with
the greatest concern across portions of Pecos and Terrell counties
closer to the river where fuels are more abundant and ERCs are
nearing the 75th percentile. Given these ERCs as well as the
breezy conditions today with 20ft winds gusting to around 30 mph,
a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement remains in effect, with
improvement expected this evening as winds diminish. Looking
ahead, winds become lighter on Thursday, thus despite widespread
RHs around 7-15%, fire weather concerns will be lower, with RFTIs
topping out around 1-3 across most of the region, mainly due to
RH. The warming and drying trend that begins today will carry
through the upcoming weekend, with critical RHs areawide most
days. Locations from Southeast New Mexico south to the Davis
Mountains and Big Bend will see little in the way of relief, with
only poor to fair nocturnal recovery expected through the weekend,
with good to excellent recovery focused across the Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos. This continued drying as well as limited
green up will yield a continued steady increase in ERCs, with no
precipitation currently forecast.

Winds shift to the west and increase Friday, with the strongest
winds across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and adjacent
areas, where RFTIs approach 5-7. Fire products will likely be
warranted for locations to the west on Friday, and while winds
decrease somewhat Saturday, they ramp up again Sunday and
especially Monday, when widespread near critical and critical fire
weather conditions are expected. Relief arrives Monday night into
Tuesday with a strong cold front, accompanied by increased
moisture as well as a return to below normal temperatures next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               36  76  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 35  78  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   41  80  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            39  80  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           39  70  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    32  73  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    30  73  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     36  75  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   38  75  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     36  79  50  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...10


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