Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 172050
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

As a weak shortwave trough exits to the east, above normal
temperatures will continue across the area through Thursday thanks
to west-southwest flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave to
the west.  Overnight lows tonight will be in the 30s to mid 40s
across the area, and highs Thursday will climb into the upper 50s to
middle 60s, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most
locations.  Mid-level moisture will continue to increase across the
area ahead of the next shortwave, which will move through the region
on Thursday night and early Friday.  This shortwave will be stronger
than the previous, and models continue to indicate light QPF across
the entire CWFA with the exception of the Presidio Valley along the
Rio Grande. Thus, have maintained the slight chance/chance of
showers for Thursday night, with a rain/snow mix possible for higher
elevations in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  However, given
warm ground temperatures, any snow that manages to fall in these
locations is not expected to accumulate, and thus, impacts should be
minimal. As the shortwave exits the area, precipitation will taper
off from west to east, with the chance of showers on Friday confined
mainly to the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling
Plains.

Temperatures on Friday and through the weekend will drop to slightly
below normal as weak ridging develops ahead of yet another upper
level trough that will move through the area on Sunday. However,
there will be little moisture for this system to work with, thus
have maintained a dry forecast through the weekend. In the wake of
Sunday`s trough, northwest flow aloft will set in over the
region, which will be reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great
Lakes Region and subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. With the persistent northwest flow continuing into next
week and the main slug of mid-level moisture remaining well north
of the area, quiet weather is expected for the latter part of the
extended, with dry conditions and near to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 40  61  38  52  /   0   0  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              43  65  41  53  /  10   0  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                40  60  36  57  /   0  10  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  45  67  48  62  /   0   0  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  62  40  57  /   0   0  40  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  54  34  52  /   0  10  30  10
HOBBS NM                   37  58  34  53  /   0  10  30  10
MARFA TX                   31  61  30  55  /   0   0  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  64  39  52  /  10   0  40  20
ODESSA TX                  40  63  39  53  /  10   0  40  20
WINK TX                    38  63  38  57  /   0   0  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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