Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271647
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ceilings should become VFR by early afternoon at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. Upper level low pressure
area across the Trans Pecos is expected to produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon
and early this evening. Confidence was not high enough at this
time to mention at any of the terminals. Will continue to monitor.
MVR to IFR conditions are expected to develop again late tonight
at the terminals.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 27/12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

Beginning to see some MVFR cigs develop along the fringes of a
weakly-convective cloud mass over the Permian Basin southwest
toward the Davis Mtns. Think this will burn off nicely by mid
morning. By mid afternoon, expect some buildups over the mountains
and over the Permian Basin/lower trans Pecos. Confidence is
insufficient to mention chances of TSRA at any one terminal at
this time; however INVOF TSRA expect wind gusts near 40 mph
along with MVFR vsbys and cigs. Conditions will quiet down after
sunset. Looks like as if we`ll see a stronger push of Gulf
moisture up this was Sunday morning, but will let later shifts
decide the extent.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Today looks like the last day we will have to deal with a pesky
upper low that has remained over our region most of this past week.
Showers have developed over the lower Trans Pecos and eastern
Permian Basin this morning. These locations are on the eastern
periphery of the low and will be the main focus today for
convection. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will be
possible mainly south of I-20 where atmospheric moisture content
remains high. Isolated storms are possible elsewhere, but should
not cause much of a concern for flooding.

Another upper trough to our west will finally kick out the system
over us by Sunday. This should end most rain chances except for
possible terrain induced convection in the Davis Mountains. The
Western U.S. trough will lift into the Plains Monday and give SE
NM and the higher terrain of W TX a chance for storms.
Temperatures really warm by midweek under dry, westerly flow
aloft. Yet another trough will swing across the Northern Plains
late next week and push a cold front south. It appears most of the
upper level energy associated with this system will pass well to
our north so a dry frontal passage is expected. Cooler
temperatures and much drier air will fill in behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  61  78  63  /  30  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              78  64  82  66  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                76  61  81  62  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  82  67  88  69  /  30  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  62  83  65  /  30  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  56  76  60  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                   74  60  77  61  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   73  54  80  55  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    77  63  82  63  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  76  63  81  64  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    78  64  83  65  /  20  10  10  10

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/29

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