Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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447
FXUS64 KMAF 152342
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
542 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong cold front moving through the area this evening with a
gusty north wind. Blowing dust reducing vsbys and MVFR cigs as low
clouds move in behind the front. Could see brief IFR conditions
tonight... expect to slowly improve toward morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front is currently located near the I-20 corridor and is
rapidly moving south. Gusty, northerly winds are being observed
behind the front and are meeting low end advisory criteria.
However we will not issue an advisory given the wind speeds are
marginal and will be diminishing within a few hours.

The front is a little faster than models were previously
indicating and may have some effect on precip type tonight. The
earlier frontal passage will mean the elevated warm layer will be
more eroded by cold air advection and the threat for freezing rain
may be reduced, with sleet or snow being the more likely precip
type. This may not have too much of an impact though because
models have been showing less precip occurring in our CWA with
only a few hundredths liquid equivalent falling in the lower Trans
Pecos and Davis Mountains. Any precip will come to an end tomorrow
morning with skies clearing from the north tomorrow afternoon.
The clearing may not come soon enough to affect temps much so
prefer the cooler MET for Tue highs.

An upper disturbance moves across the area Wednesday bringing
another slight chance for wintry precip but again any QPF amounts
will be light and do not see much, if any, impact. Westerly mid
level flow then spreads into the South Plains causing highs to
warm well above normal to end the week. Another front is expected
next Sunday which will cool temps back closer to seasonal norms.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     19  30  14  39 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       23  29  19  37 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                         28  39  24  37 /  40  20   0  10
Fort Stockton                  21  29  20  36 /  20  10   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 14  25  14  33 /  10   0   0  20
Hobbs                          18  31  15  36 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          19  25  18  39 /  10  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           20  32  17  38 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         19  31  17  37 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           22  30  18  38 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$



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