Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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792
FXUS64 KMAF 242300
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
600 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...Please see Aviation discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions currently across all TAF locations.
Short range ensemble forecasts are indicating that MVFR conditions
will develop across all TAF sites overnight...most likely by 09Z.
It`s possible that conditions could even become IFR for a brief
period. Skies should become VFR by late Sunday morning. The high
resolution HRRR is indc that convection is possible late Sunday
morning at KMAF...however chances are too low to include in the
TAF at this time.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 156 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Today tstms are most favored across the srn CWFA in closer proximity
to the cold front and where upslope flow and modestly steep mid
level LRs are noted. Otherwise this PM storms will form west of the
continental divide in SW-W NM and track e-se per NW mid level flow
with expected arrival in SE NM/Wrn CWFA around 06Z/Sunday and
possibly PB after 09Z. Outflow boundaries and how much cooling
occurs from Sun AM tstms will dictate the convective potential
into Sun PM. Somewhat of a similar set-up Sunday night/Mon AM as
storms move se across NM arriving in the NW CWFA 12Z-15Z Mon.
Specifics of timing and location is difficult at best and forecast
thru Sunday-Monday will look like a "smattering" of PoPs due to
lack of clarification on features and source regions. Yet anther
shrtwv trof in NW flow Monday night is possible. Even though that
sounds simple enough that could be tied into shwrtv trof Mon AM of
which timing in largely uncertain, but it would tend to impact
n-e CWFA? High temps will remain below normal through Mon, but
trend up. Meanwhile mid level theta-e ridge axis will begin to
form Tue PM and along with daytime heating storm development
across srn NM mtns are favored. Per NW steering flow they will
have a good chance to move into SE NM late PM/evening. Said
theta-e ridge will then favor tstms across the Trans Pecos mtns
Wed-Thur, possibly drifting into the plains. According to ECMWF
this pattern would persist into Sat. 85h temps are warmer on these
12Z runs that previous 24hrs, so probably hot across the wrn 1/3
of CWFA in the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  84  69  85 /  40  40  30  50
Carlsbad                       70  89  69  89 /  50  30  60  20
Dryden                         74  91  73  92 /  20  30  10  20
Fort Stockton                  70  90  69  90 /  20  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 64  81  63  82 /  50  30  50  40
Hobbs                          66  83  66  84 /  40  40  60  30
Marfa                          64  86  62  85 /  20  20  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           69  86  69  87 /  40  30  30  50
Odessa                         69  86  69  87 /  30  30  40  40
Wink                           71  90  69  91 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

33/67/33



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