Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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308
FXUS64 KMAF 172202
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Did a quick update for Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 438, in effect
until 11 PM CDT/10 PM MDT for Eddy, Lea, and Gaines Counties.
Large hail/damaging winds will be the main threats

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hoursin return flow, w/a few
high clouds. Forecast soundings develop a cu field in SE NM late
Mon morning, which will develop south and east early afternoon.
Bases should be 4.5-8 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 150 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough extends southward across the Intermountain West as a
ridge extends northward from the Gulf up across OH.  The ridge will
get flattened out as the trough moves east but it will be reinforced
by additional troughs moving down over the NW.  On Thursday and
Friday a stronger trough will dig down through CA and swing east
next weekend.  This will put the region into SW flow aloft and allow
disturbances to track across the region.  Some models even develop
it into a cut off low along the US/Mex border next week.  Both of
these events would be favorable for storm development.

A cooler start to the day with more locations having lows in the 65
to 70 range. Temperatures will be in the 90s for the coming week.
Tuesday looking warm with readings near or over 100 along Pecos
and Rio Grande Valleys. Models keep pushing back the arrival of a
more significant Fall front... now looking like 8 or 9 days out
from now it things do not change. Until then conditions will be
pretty much the same as a south wind and warm temperatures
prevail.

Did not have as much precip overnight with only a few showers
lingering into the morning.  Only looking at a slight chance of
storms tonight over SE NM and the western counties.  Rain chances
look even slimmer the next few days but may pick up later next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  93  70  96 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       65  94  65  97 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                         72  95  73 100 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  70  92  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 64  86  66  88 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          65  90  65  94 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          58  87  59  89 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           69  94  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
Odessa                         69  93  70  97 /  10  10  10  20
Wink                           71  95  70  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/12



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