Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

000
FXUS64 KMAF 202331
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail for the next 24 hours. Current -SHRA
should diminish this evening. Winds will be light out of the SSW
tonight at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite imagery is showing cumulus developing in
the higher elevations from the Guadalupe to the Davis Mountains
this afternoon. Dewpoints are pretty low (20s/30s) so convection
will be high based and low QPF, struggling to maintain itself away
from the mountains. There is very little shear so the severe
threat today will be low. The record high for today is 89 set in
1934 which we have already reached so an old record will fall.
The heat returns tomorrow with another record high expected before
a weak cold front enters the area dropping temperatures back to
only around normal on Wednesday.

Thursday will get interesting as a deep upper level low moves into
the western US near the Four Corners region. Surface pressure
falls ahead of the low will draw moisture back west into
southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains increasing
instability. Models are in good agreement that a line of storms
will develop along a Pacific front and push east across the area
Thursday afternoon. Strong southerly surface flow will combine
with strong westerly mid level winds to produce ample shear so
that some storms should become severe. West winds behind the
Pacific front will advect in dry air possibly producing a brief
fire weather threat for our far western CWA in the afternoon.

The Pacific front will rapidly push east followed by a reinforcing
push of cooler Canadian air Friday night. This will keep
temperatures closer to normal for the end of the week/weekend. An
upper ridge quickly gives way to another trough early next week
keeping the near normal temps through the end of the forecast
period.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  94  57  83 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       53  92  53  88 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  92  61  91 /  10  20  20   0
Fort Stockton                  62  93  62  91 /  10  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  79  59  81 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  89  50  82 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  83  45  85 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  93  57  86 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         61  93  58  86 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           56  94  55  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.