Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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746
FXUS64 KMAF 181949
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
249 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The seemingly ever-present upper ridge is now anchored over north-
central Oklahoma, and will continue to dominate our weather
pattern the next several days. Water vapor imagery today indicates
drier air pushing westward into the area from northeast Texas.
This drier air will serve to displace the theta-e ridge axis to
the west, resulting in a better chance for convection over higher
terrain, with less of a chance for storms across the Trans Pecos
and Permian Basin. The drier air is apparent this afternoon, as
skies over eastern portions of the forecast area have a less
extensive cumulus field than the past several days. While storms
will generally remain focused over the higher terrain and adjacent
plains, a few storms could develop elsewhere along outflow
boundaries, thus will maintain the isolated/slight chance mention
across southeastern portions of the area through early this
evening. Highs this afternoon are expected to top out in the 90s
for most, with 80s across higher terrain and lower 100s through
the Rio Grande Valley.

The ridge axis will gradually shift eastward toward the Middle
Mississippi Valley late this week, with easterly to southeasterly
flow continuing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. While
moisture will remain elevated, precipitable water values around
1.25-1.50" will be close to normal for this time of year. The
upslope flow will yield continued thunderstorm chances each
afternoon/evening through the extended, favored across the higher
terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains southward to the Davis
Mountains and Big Bend Area. Broad ridging across the CONUS this
weekend will begin to transition as a trough deepens across
Manitoba and Ontario, and drops into the Great Lakes Sunday into
Monday. Concurrently, another ridge will begin to develop over the
western CONUS, though models diverge on how the upper pattern
will evolve thereafter. Thus, there has not been much change to
the extended forecast. Overall, highs look to remain in the 90s
for most locations, near to just above normal through the upcoming
weekend, and elevated moisture will keep overnight lows in the
mid 60s to mid 70s, with slightly cooler temperatures expected
across higher elevations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  95  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70  94  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         75  95  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  93  71  95 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  83  66  87 /  10  20  10  20
Hobbs                          68  91  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  85  60  88 /  20  30  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           73  95  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         73  94  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           73  95  73  98 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/84



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