Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 210857
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
357 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Another unseasonably warm day is expected today, though a strong
cold front tonight will provide a break from the heat for this
weekend. Below normal temperatures are expected Saturday and
Sunday, with a quick return to above normal expected early next
week. Precipitation chances are slim to none the next seven days.

This morning, thunderstorms are developing across northeastern New
Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle in response to a shortwave
moving out of southeastern Colorado. These storms are expected to
remain well north of the area, with dry conditions expected
areawide today. Yesterday`s weak cold front has already begun to
lift north, with southerly to southeasterly return flow developing
in its wake this morning. Winds will veer to the west by this
afternoon, with downslope warming expected to result in highs
today in the middle 80s to middle 90s for most of the area.
Locations through the Rio Grande Valley could see highs 100-105
this afternoon, similar to yesterday. The continued very warm and
dry conditions are also expected to result in near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon, mainly across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of the Southeast New Mexico Plains where
fuels have yet to begin to green up. Thus, have issued a Fire
Danger Statement for these areas.

A big change is coming tonight as the aforementioned shortwave
translates toward the Middle Mississippi Valley, pushing a strong
cold front through the area. The front will enter northern zones
late this evening before quickly progressing south to the Rio
Grande by early Saturday morning. Winds will veer to the northeast
in the wake of the front, with a tight surface pressure gradient
expected to result in breezy conditions for most locations. Also,
given the favored northeasterly wind direction, strong gap winds
are expected to develop late tonight through mid-morning Saturday
at Guadalupe Pass. A High Wind Watch has been issued for this
area, where gusts to around 60 mph will be possible for several
hours. Temperatures tonight/early Saturday behind the front will
be noticeably cooler than the past several nights, with lows in
the 40s expected for most of the Permian Basin, southeastern New
Mexico, and higher terrain. 50s are expected elsewhere, with a few
lows in the 60s through the Rio Grande Valley.

Much cooler weather is expected Saturday, with highs in the 60s
and 70s for most of the area, a far cry from the 80s and 90s
we`ve been used to this week. Low clouds and perhaps some drizzle
or fog will be possible through the morning on Saturday behind the
front, though skies are expected to gradually clear during the
afternoon. Saturday night will be another very cool night, with
decreasing winds and clear skies resulting in ample radiational
cooling, and low temperatures in the low to middle 40s most
locations, and lower to middle 50s across the Rio Grande Valley.
Easterly flow Sunday will keep temperatures from warming too much,
with highs mainly in the 70s. By Sunday night, southerly flow
will return at the surface under zonal flow aloft, paving the way
for a quick warm up into early next week, with highs in the 80s
and 90s expected each day from Monday onward. The next chance for
rain could be next Thursday night/Friday as a trough progresses
through the Great Basin, but until then, dry conditions are
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  47  68  46 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       90  50  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  60  75  52 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  94  51  71  47 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 83  46  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          87  43  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  49  68  45 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         92  48  68  45 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           93  52  71  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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