Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 271826

126 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015


Please see the 27/18Z forecast discussion below.



VFR with gusty south to southeast winds are expected at all
terminals this afternoon. There`s enough confidence to put in a
TEMPO group for strong TSRA at KPEQ and KFST until mid evening.
Scattered to broken mid-high level clouds will persist until the
early morning hours, when increasing Gulf stratus will result in
MVFR to IFR conditions. Skies should lift and become VFR by mid
morning Thursday.



Latest WV imagery shows compact mid level circulation now centered
near KPHX translating east. At the surface, Gulf moisture is
holding as far west as a KROW-KCNM-KPEQ line. At this time we
don`t expect much of a translation east, but rather more of a
mixing out to LFCs about 5000 ft AGL by mid afternoon. There is a
subtle indication in WV imagery of a speed max now over southern
Chihuahua/northern Durango. It would not take much for CI, and in
fact latest satellite imagery shows CU building along the eastern
flanks of the Guadalupe and Davis mountain ranges. CAMs are not
much use, probably because CI may occur just about anywhere within
an air mass characterized by MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg and LIs of -9 or
lower. Best guess for CI will be over the eastern flanks of the
Davis Mountains in the next 1-2 hours. Both effective and 0-6km
bulk shear values are a tad bit low for supercells, thus
convective evolution will start off with clumps of multicells,
then as cold pools from these cells merge and propagate east,
short linear segments are suggested. Initially, hail to 2" and
wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible given convection, then the
hail threat should diminish as water-loaded storms begin dumping
respectable cold pools.

How far east and how long are the other questions. Would expect
convection to diminish along with peak sensible heating, but there
is a lot of energy for these storms to dine upon. Storms could
continue through the evening hours, especially with an increasing
LLJ supporting stronger updrafts. Also would not be surprised to
see SPC drop a severe thunderstorm watch box on a good chunk of
MAF`s CWA in the 20-21Z time range. Stay tuned.






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