Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231042
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
442 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Tuesday...have cancelled both the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupes/Davis Mtns and the Winter
Weather Advisory for the Northern Permian Basin and parts of
Southeast New Mexico.

The cold front has made it almost to Presidio. Showers have
occurred overnight across the CWA north of the Davis Mtns. Due to
temps above freezing...even upstream well into the Texas Panhandle
have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory. Forecast soundings are
indc sfc temps above freezing. Bottom line is that the Boundary
Layer is too warm...and with most of the dew pts above freezing it
looks like any snow that mixes in will not accumulate. The only
exception is the Davis/Apache and Guadalupe Mtns where H85 temps
will be near if not slightly below freezing. In those places any
snow that does accumulate will be less than an inch and mainly on
grassy surfaces. Have cancelled the High Wind Warning for the
Davis and Guadalupe Mtns since the expected strong winds failed to
materialized per the Mt Locke/Mt Fowlkes/GDP obs. The VAD Wind
profile at MAF are also not indc very strong winds aloft. Winds
might increase...but will stay below High Wind criteria.

Showers will gradually decrease from the north today as the upper
trof moves east. After a cool day today and a cold night tonight
temps will slowly moderate on Wednesday as ridging moves overhead.
Temps will warm to 5-10 degrees above normal with dry weather on
Christmas Day with southwest/downslope winds. Temps will cool a
little on Friday ahead of a upper trof moving out of the Rockies.
This trof is fcst to deepen as it moves into the Plains...and will
drive a cold front south in the CWA over the weekend. Models are
not in sync with the timing of the front...so it will be difficult
to determine when...and what kind of precipitation to expect. Dry
weather will return next Monday with near normal temps before
another system is forecast to dig south into the Desert Southwest
next Tuesday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  27  50  30  /  40   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              49  30  52  31  /  40   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                48  24  52  29  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  52  31  55  28  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  28  53  37  /  40   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          41  23  45  32  /  30   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   46  24  49  27  /  30   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   42  14  48  17  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    48  25  50  27  /  40   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  48  28  51  31  /  40   0   0   0
WINK TX                    51  26  55  25  /  40   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/33

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