Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
000
FXUS64 KMAF 182248
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Light showers have developed and are stretching across the the
Lower Trans Pecos. Amounts will total a few more hundredths before
these showers dissipate over the course of the afternoon. Low
clouds continue to sit west of the Pecos River and will keep
temperatures a tad lower compared to areas with less cloud cover.
A few more weak showers may be seen tonight and into the day on
Tuesday, but rain chances continue to decrease. With clouds
decreasing, highs on Tuesday move closer to normal (72F at KMAF
this time of year) with most spots reaching into the 60s to near
70F. Tonight and tomorrow night see overnight lows settle into the
40s almost areawide with the exception of the normal cold spots
over SE NM and in the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The persistent upper low that has been sitting over the Desert
Southwest over the last 4 to 5 days opens up into a positively
tilted short wave trough and moves east by Wednesday. The
approaching short wave produces increasing southwesterly winds and
lee troughing developing in the lee of the Guadalupe into Davis
Mountains. This surface lee troughing will sharpen the east-west
moisture gradient and lead to increased southerly flow that will
advect increased moisture ahead of the lee troughing. With the
increased moisture and lift from the short wave, rain chances will
develop across northeastern Lea County and northern and northeast
Permian Basin on Wednesday. Despite temperatures being near
average for mid March in the 70s for most, daytime heating and
mid-level cooling will aid convective destabilization, with shower
and thunderstorm initiation likely near the track of the short
wave. Rain chances spread south and east through the afternoon and
evening, with lee troughing sharpening into a dryline that moves
east and pushes moisture out of the eastern half of the area,
ending remaining rain chances by Wednesday night. Lows Wednesday
night will be mild and mostly in the 40s and 50s aside from 30s in
northern Lea County and spots in the Marfa Plateau.
By Thursday, the short wave will be east of the area and mid-
level ridging is expected to build into Sunday. With the short
wave east of the area, southwesterly surface winds will turn
northwesterly, with increased subsidence leading to clearing skies
and warmer temperatures. Highs Thursday will be a few degrees
above average in the 70s and a few 80s along portion of the Pecos
River Valley dividing the Stockton Plateau from the Permian Basin,
in Terrell County, and along the Rio Grande. With building
heights, lows above average in the 40s and 50s are expected
Thursday night. Highs above normal in the 70s and 80s aside from
90s along the Rio Grande, and lows above normal in the 40s and 50s
continue into Saturday. Saturday is likely to see the warmest
highs of the long term, and Saturday night is likely to see the
warmest lows of the long term. A large trough digging across the
western CONUS is apparent in both the GFS and ECMWF. The lift and
increasing zonal flow associated with this trough could deliver a
mix of thunderstorms across the eastern parts of the forecast area
and windy conditions to western parts of the forecast area,
respectively, but exact details this far out remain subject to
change. Highs Sunday remain above average in the 70s and 80s for
most, 90s along the Rio Grande, and lows Sunday night will be
cooler but still above average and in the 40s and 50s. Monday sees
continued westerly winds but cooler highs closer to average in
the 60s and 70s for most, and lows more seasonable mainly in the
30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow,
w/abundant mid/high cloud. Forecast soundings develop a cu field
by early Tuesday afternoon in Southeast New Mexico, w/bases ~ 6kft
AGL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 43 68 43 74 / 10 10 0 20
Carlsbad 42 68 42 73 / 10 10 0 0
Dryden 45 67 44 77 / 10 20 0 10
Fort Stockton 44 71 45 77 / 10 20 0 10
Guadalupe Pass 41 62 44 64 / 20 10 0 0
Hobbs 39 66 38 71 / 0 10 10 20
Marfa 35 67 37 70 / 20 10 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 43 66 43 74 / 0 10 0 20
Odessa 45 67 44 74 / 0 10 0 10
Wink 45 70 43 77 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44