Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 241108
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South to
southeast winds this morning will veer to the southwest by 18Z and
gust to 20-30kt, except for CNM where gusts up to 35kt are
possible. Gusty winds are expected to continue thereafter.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/
The 85h thermal ridge will bogart its way into the area today and
the core 27-29C 85h temps ensure that high temps will easily climb
into the M90s across SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos. A average mixed layer
(65h deep) wind of 30kts foretells a windy day across the same areas
including the GDP Mtns. By late today the a mtn wave will set up
across the GDP Mtns with the classic upshear tilted OMEGA couplet.
As such will opt issue a high wind warning from 20Z/24-03Z/26,
windiest conditions to occur on Tue. Thermal ridge will be farther
e on Tue. This will result in cooler temps across SE NM, but
warmer across the PB and Big Bend/Rio Grande. Wind/very windy
conditions are expected areawide Tue when an 85h speed max of
30-35kts extends e from Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM into all of the
PB. The average mixed layer wind will be near 35kts and advisory
level winds are likely in the corridor described above. As the
upper low passes to the n Wed AM an assocd cold front will move
thru bringing some relief from WRT temps, probably still windy
though. Warm/dry sector is eager to return and sets up Thur/Fri.
Fri will be again be especially warm, there will be wind too
along periods of high clouds on Tue and Fri. Similarly to Wed we
expect a cold front will follow Sat thus cooler next weekend. As
upper low passes by Sat a few high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be
possible in assocn with cold mid level temps on Sat.
Today fire wx concerns are focused in the GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn
area where there will be a prominent low level thermal ridge with
85h winds (~5kft) of 25-30kts and where RFTI of 4-6 is forecast.
Roadside green-up does reduce roadside start potential, but IA
potential certainly increases today. Critical fire wx will expand
Tue into most of the PB and farther s into the Trans Pecos. Green-up
across the PB does mitigate fire wx concerns and precludes the
issuance of a watch for these areas. In the Trans Pecos there has
been some green-up, but not sure how strong it is? For now will
issue a Red Flag today for GDP Mtns/SE NM/Van Horn area and a
watch for same areas on Tue. Basically for Tue strongest fire wx
will occur in area that has the best green-up.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 90 62 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 95 62 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 87 60 96 67 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 93 62 94 63 / 10 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 83 57 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 91 60 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 87 49 88 54 / 10 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 91 62 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 91 62 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 94 61 94 60 / 0 0 0 0
NM...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday
for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.
TX...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday
for Guadalupe Mountains.
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54