Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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517
FXUS64 KMAF 182346
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
646 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Ongoing storms over and north of the Davis Mtns should not affect
any TAF sites. Otherwise will be VFR with brisk SE wind dropping
off a little overnight then picking up again by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A 5h anticyclone is centered INVOF SW KS with a mid level theta-e
minimum across much of the CWFA, including the w. The upper ridge
will remain to the n Wed. A minor shrtwv trof in the mid level ely
flow is progged to track w across the PB Tue evening and may
result in a few -SHRA. Other than a few SHRA/TSRA in the mtn this
PM the potential for precip does not look good, but high temps
thru Thur are expected to mostly remain below 100. Said anticyclone
will develop wwd starting Thur and will mostly result in high
temps increasing a few degrees, probably back into the triple
digits across most of the area.

CLIMATE...
So far this July MAF has had 14 days of triple digit heat. The
climo average is 5. There were also 14 days of triple digit heat
in July for 2015. The record for July is 18 days (1964, 1998) with
16 days in 2001, 2011). Based on the climo record for MAF, of the
6 yrs that have had at least 14 days of triple digit heat in July
the following Aug only 3 of those yrs did the triple digit heat
carry over into Aug. So maybe the triple digit heat continues into
Aug, maybe it doesn`t.

So far for 2016 MAF has had 21 days of triple digit heat, the climo
average for the yr is 16. The record number of triple digits days is
65, 52, and 51, for 2011, 1964, and 1998 respectively.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  94  75  94 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72 100  73  99 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         76  98  78  97 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  97  73  97 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  90  69  91 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          68  95  70  95 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          67  91  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75  97  75  97 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         77  98  74  98 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           75 101  77 100 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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