Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 191719
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light this afternoon out of the south to southwest
across the area and will become elevated with some gusts out of
the south to southeast this evening for MAF, FST, and INK. There
is a slight chance of fog for HOB briefly around 12z but do not
have much confidence in this. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog is again expected this morning, dissipating by mid
morning. Anomalously high mid level heights and the presence of a
low level thermal ridge will ensure the continuation of
unseasonably warm wx thru Tue. A question is whether diurnally
driven SHRA/TSRA will develop in proximity to elevated heat
sources and/or in the east/south CWFA where low level mstr is
higher. Mid level LR`s will remain steep and the boundary layer
will be deeply well mixed each day. Today, high resolution models
favor isold high based storms from the Davis Mtns into the GDP
Mtns, of which we favor the Davis Mtns due to mstr considerations.
More of the same Mon/Tue except isold tstms will be possible in
the far ern CWFA. A cold front will near the nrn CWFA by Tue
evening, likely stalling just s of I-20. Wed a warm front maybe
across the nrn CWFA during max heating and if so a few tstms will
be possible, especially across the NE CWFA. Mid level height falls
occur in earnest Thur as a trough moves in from the west. Model
discrepancies continue, with GFS the outlier even wrt the Canadian
model. GFS is persistent that dry air will surge east during the
PM a delays the onset of the tstms until after 00Z/Fri, in part
due to a farther n and e position of surface low. It is likely to
be windy either way, just that will it be a s-se or sw-w wind? It
does make sense that precip will increase between 00Z-06Z Fri as
dryline and cold front collide, probably across the PB? Model
differences continue into Fri, but there is consensus that it will
be cooler. Question is how windy will it be, potentially very
windy? The edge will come off the high temps some Sat/Sun as
ensemble data shows 0 to +1 standard deviation in mid level
heights/low level temps.

FIRE WEATHER...
Lightning occurred yesterday with surface RHs around 20-25 pct in
the Davis/Glass Mtns. More of the same is expected today and Mon.
As such there is the potential for new fire starts especially
with the dry air that will follow each afternoon. Trans Pecos
including SE NM will undergo strong drying trend thru Thur.
Significant Fire Potential wind gradually increase across Trans
Pecos/SE NM/Wrn PB into Wed and moreso Thur when stronger winds
are expected. We continue to watch trends closely into Thur as
high end critical fire wx is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  59  90  58 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       93  52  93  53 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         91  57  93  57 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  58  92  59 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  59  85  59 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          89  53  91  53 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          85  49  87  49 /  20  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           88  58  91  58 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         87  59  90  58 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           92  55  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/



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