Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 160514
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1214 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period. TS is diminishing
across the area and is not expected to impact any terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

Today have an upper ridge centered over FL with a broad trough over
the western US.  As the trough moves off to the east the ridge will
shift back west to TX and NM by Thursday.  Over the weekend a cut
off low does form off the CA coast but current models sweep it over
the top of the ridge.

Temperatures will remain above average out through the forecast as
no fronts expected for the coming week.  Wednesday looks like the
hot day this week with 100 degrees possible for the Midland/Odessa
area... and over 100 along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Look
for warm overnight lows. Temps slowly decrease by the weekend into
next week.

Had morning showers and a few storms over the Eastern Permian Basin
that were slow to move off and gave some locations a half inch or
more of rain.  Model qpf hitting Pecos County hard tonight... given
its habit of storms developing there have increased pops near FST.
Any storms that develop across the Trans Pecos should spread into
the Permian Basin tonight.  A large outflow boundary moved down into
the area this morning... could be a focus for afternoon convection.
With good low level moisture with dewpts into the 70s and a PW of
1.45 inches this morning main concern with storms will be locally
heavy rain.  Rain chances decrease the next couple of days and favor
the eastern part of the area.  Will have some rain chances in the
extended mainly over the higher elevations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  96  74  95 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       69  99  71  96 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         76  99  75  96 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  98  72  94 /  10  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  91  67  87 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          68  96  69  92 /  10  20  20  10
Marfa                          62  90  63  87 /  10  20  20  60
Midland Intl Airport           74  98  74  95 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         74  99  74  94 /  10  20  20  10
Wink                           73 100  74  97 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10



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