Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 160958
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures this morning are much warmer than those from yesterday
with stronger winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High
temperatures this afternoon will warm up to near normal as a surface
trough develops across the area.  A broad upper level trough will
move over the Central/Northern Plains.  As this upper trough moves
to the north of the region, it will send a weak cold front through
the area on Thursday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.

Another upper trough over southern California will approach the
region on Friday.  Low level moisture will increase across the area
beginning Friday morning resulting in a slight chance of
thunderstorms across the far eastern CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible areawide but most likely across the higher elevations of
southeast New Mexico and West Texas by Friday afternoon as upper
level lift increases over the region.  As the upper trough
approaches and moves over the region on Saturday, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increases as upper level lift and
moisture increase.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon with CAPE values over 1000 J/kg and 0 to 6 km bulk shear
values near 50 kts.

Thunderstorms will move out of the CWA on Sunday with temperatures
warming up as a surface trough strengthens across the area.  A
portion of the upper level trough may stay over the area and provide
enough lift for thunderstorms to develop on Monday but do not have
much confidence in this happening.  The models develop another upper
level trough that moves toward the region by the middle part of next
week.  Temperatures will remain above normal for next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  48  72  52  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              78  49  71  54  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  48  73  49  /   0  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  76  53  81  60  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  50  78  57  /   0  10   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  48  70  48  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   79  46  70  47  /   0  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  39  72  45  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  49  74  54  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  77  49  74  53  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    85  49  76  54  /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Noon MDT today through this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Noon MDT today through this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05/80







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