Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

095
FXUS64 KMAF 201707
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1107 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide this afternoon, tonight and
Tuesday. Winds will veer to the west overnight, then to the
northwest in the 21/12Z to 21/15Z time frame before increasing to
15 to 20kt sustained.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

As of 3:45 AM CST Monday...I`m running out of different ways to
say it`s going to be dry right thru the end of the month (at
least) for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

Not surprisingly Surface Obs and the still experimental GOES-16
Water Vapor/IR/and Fog Product Imagery shows a dry airmass and
mostly clear skies across the CWA.

Ridging will build north out of Baja California into the
Intermountain West and the Canadian Rockies thru the first half
of the week. After a couple of days with above normal temps
(normal for MAF is 63) a weak shortwave will move southeast across
the Southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. In its wake a cold front
will clip the CWA late Tuesday. All the 00Z MOS guidance keeps the
winds just below Advisory levels on Tuesday...and below High Wind
criteria in the Guadalupes. Therefore...will not issue any
highlites at this time. Temps on Wednesday will cool...to normal
levels as the cold air remains bottled up over the Upper Midwest
and points east.

The ridge builds east over the Southern Plains during the
Thanksgiving Weekend. The CWA will be under a dry NW flow aloft...
with the thermal ridge spreading east. What does that mean for the
area? The answer is that dry weather can be expected thru the
Holiday Weekend with temps generally 10-15 degrees above normal.

The latest GFS (20/00Z) operational run and ensembles show a dry
quasi-zonal flow across the Central and Southern Plains thru 384
hours (thru the first week of December). If this pattern comes to
fruition it would continue the dry weather with above normal
temps.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  45  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       73  44  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  45  81  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  48  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 65  46  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          69  43  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          70  41  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  45  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  45  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           73  43  74  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.