Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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097
FXUS64 KMAF 160854
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 AM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Potent upper level storm system centered near the Four Corners
region will barrel eastward today toward the Central Plains by
this evening. Dryline currently across the eastern slopes of the
mountains will surge eastward today as mid level flow increases
and becomes more westerly. Isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled
out across the extreme eastern Permian Basin today ahead of the
dryline. The bigger concern will be the wind as strong winds are
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains and windy conditions expected
across much of the plains of southeast New Mexico and much of west
Texas. A High Wind Warning continues today for the Guadalupe Mountains
and a Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon for the southeast
New Mexico Plains and much of west Texas. Weak Pacific cold front
associated with the upper system will move southeast through the
forecast area tonight. Will continue the slight chance to chance
of thunderstorms tonight across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos where the deeper moisture and low level
convergence will be maximized for the longest period of time
along the front.

In the wake of this system southwesterly flow aloft will return
Sunday. This should allow the dryline to surge again toward the
eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos by late afternoon and
then retreat toward the mountains again Sunday night. Will continue
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos near the sloshing dryline Sunday and Sunday
night.

Thunderstorm chances will continue every day next week for most
areas due to an endless series of Pacific storm systems tracking
east across the Rockies and western Plains. These upper level
systems will interact with a moist and unstable airmass across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Some of the medium range
guidance is suggesting the possibility of occasional heavy rain
and flash flooding possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  52  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  57  84  65  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                80  48  82  52  /  10   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  64  90  70  /  10  40  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  56  88  64  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  48  75  55  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   78  48  78  57  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   81  45  80  52  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  55  85  62  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  85  56  87  63  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  55  88  61  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/12

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