Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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298
FXUS64 KMAF 150858
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
258 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Long fetch sw flow aloft has tapped Pacific moisture along and s of
the strong upper-level jet that stretches from AZ-CO-IA. Meanwhile
persistent se low-level flow across the W TX plains has brought
higher dwpnts thru the PB. Lee trough will move farther e today,
probably even e of MAF by 00Z. Despite high clouds it will again be
warm today along and e of trough, 15-20 degrees above normal. High
wind warning is still in effect for GDP Mtns, NAM12 cross section
shows well develop mtn wave today. Early this AM there was quite
abit of precip across AZ/wrn NM, but will tend to wane through day
and is expected to remain w of the CWFA thru at least 06Z/Fri.
Thereafter a strong cold front will move thru plains early Fri AM
and as said jet moves ewd precip is expected to renew across the
far wrn CWFA around 15Z-18Z Fri and then expand e, but a narrow
axis INVOF RRQ of jet and secondary jet approaching from the sw.
The general trend again is for the precip axis to shift a little
farther n Sat AM, highest PoPs n of I-20. MOS PoPs have decreased
some too. Still there could .50" or so across GDP Mtns/SE NM and
.20"-25" across the nrn tier of CWFA. Much cooler still looks to
be a good be on Fri. GFS continues to insist on precip
redeveloping early Sun AM INVOF Presidio Valley (less on
ECMWF/NAM12) then expands as it moves e-ne, apparently in assocn
with divergence between a jet approaching Baja CA and fading RRQ
of jet to the ne and is coincident with pocket elevated
instablilty (- TSRA?), even into Mon. This will mostly depend on
the Baja jet as GFS tracks the jet ne into the PB Mon AM. Pretty
consistent signal of gradual warming Sat-Mon. A cold front may
bisect the NE CWFA Tue from around a Lamesa-Big Spring, thus
mostly above normal temps s of the front Tue. Front surges s Tue
night/Wed AM setting up a cool day with possibly some RA around
the area. It is interesting that jet energy will probably remain a
factor even into the late extended periods of next Thur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  50  55  36 /   0  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       76  53  55  36 /   0  20  50  50
Dryden                         84  57  69  46 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  85  49  58  43 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 66  43  50  42 /   0  10  50  50
Hobbs                          73  42  46  35 /   0  10  30  50
Marfa                          79  44  63  36 /   0  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           81  48  55  39 /   0  10  10  40
Odessa                         82  46  53  38 /   0  10  10  30
Wink                           82  49  56  36 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$



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