Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 151049
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
549 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Have added TSRA to all but KCNM this morning, then at KCNM this
afternoon.  Storms are producing gusty winds to 40kt, although
ceilings are still VFR.  Expect VFR to continue through the day,
but there may be temporary MVFR visibility.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/

A major pattern change will bring cooler temperatures and a better
chance of rain today into next week. The upper ridge that brought us
unseasonably warm temperatures and a record high yesterday will
break down as a large trough to our west inches toward us. Mid level
flow will transition to southwesterly today as low level moisture
finally begins to return to the area. There are a few showers and
storms on the radar this morning and this is expected to continue
through mid morning as a mid level disturbance passes overhead.
By this afternoon, a shortwave along with daytime heating will
allow for showers and storms to develop over the higher terrain.
Given the steering flow, storms should move northeast toward the
Permian Basin. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be possible
with any of the storms.

Upper ridging will develop this weekend over the western Gulf of
Mexico as the trough to our west remains in place. Temperatures will
fall back a few degrees but will still remain above normal. Good
coverage of showers and storms is expected again Saturday before
drier conditions return Sunday.

All eyes next week will be on newly formed Tropical Storm Norma in
the Pacific. The large upper trough to our west will continue to
keep southwesterly flow aloft. This will funnel mid and upper level
moisture across the area and eventually pick up the system around
midweek. Models continue to struggle with the track of this system
so forecast confidence is low. This system will need to be watched
as it has the potential to bring heavy rain and even flooding
wherever it tracks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  70  93  67 /  20  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       94  65  90  64 /  30  30  30  30
Dryden                         98  71  94  70 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  96  68  92  68 /  30  30  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 86  62  82  63 /  30  40  30  40
Hobbs                          92  64  88  63 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                          90  60  87  58 /  40  40  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           98  70  92  68 /  20  30  20  10
Odessa                         96  69  91  67 /  20  30  20  10
Wink                           97  67  92  66 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29



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