Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 150524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.  Winds will
be light and variable during the overnight period before increasing
out of the south and southeast by Tuesday afternoon.  Some gusts
will be likely during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved into Mexico as the upper level trough
passes by to the north of the forecast area. Cool surface high
pressure is building into the area from the north and will settle
over the Permian Basin tonight. Light winds, clear skies and dry
air is expected underneath the cool high and freezing temperatures
are likely across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Will go ahead and upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning for
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for late tonight
through mid Tuesday morning.

Looks like a quiet and cool day Tuesday with the high moving off
to the east and a lee surface trough forming across the western
high plains. Temperatures will moderate to normal values
by Wednesday as the trough intensifies. Windy conditions will
likely develop in the Guadalupe Mountains with breezy conditions
in many sections of the plains. Later shifts will need to monitor
for potential high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains per 700
millibar wind forecast.

An upper level trough is forecast to track across the plains
early Thursday and drive a dry cold front south late in the day.
Minimal cooling is expected behind this front Thursday and
Friday.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will develop Friday and Saturday
ahead of a southern stream upper level storm system. The trough
will be close enough by Saturday to mention a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across western sections during the day
and areawide Saturday night.

Beyond Saturday night kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft.

FIRE WEATHER...
NW flow aloft in the wake of yesterday`s trough will slowly
transition to zonal over the next couple of days as the next trough
approaches.  Wednesday afternoon...forecast soundings at KGDP mix
deeply, to well above H7, where 30-35kt westerlies are forecast.
This momentum transfer will sharpen up a dryline to the east, and
single-digit dewpoints will result in single-digit RH`s in the
Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon.  Thus, we`ve issued an fire wx watch
attm to cover this.  Adjacent plains will likely need to be added as
the event nears.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
     MDT/ Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend
     Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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