Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 022041
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
241 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Cool and wet conditions are expected across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico with some high elevation snow possible through
the weekend. Dry but cold conditions are expected much of next
week.

An upper low located over southern California this morning will
slowly drop east of the tip of Baja Saturday night before ejecting
northeast toward southwest Texas Monday morning. Deterministic
models and ensembles show good agreement, though NAM picks up
forward speed of low somewhat compared to other deterministic
models on Monday. In the wake of departing trough, upper flow is
generally northwest through the coming week, allowing cold Alaskan
air mass to setting into the area bringing below normal temperatures.

In the meanwhile, a cold front was pushing through southeast New
Mexico and the into the central Permian Basin early this
afternoon. This front is expected to push southward through the
Big Bend area overnight. A moist low-level upslope flow will favor
patches of fog, particularly on east slopes overnight. Patchy fog
will remain a possibility through the weekend, more commonly in the
mountains and at night.

Strong northeasterly gap winds are expected to develop at
Guadalupe Pass by late evening and continue off and on through
Saturday night. Aa High Wind Warning will be in effect during that
period of time.

With deep moisture in place across the region, lift ahead of upper
low will bring increasing rain chances to the area overnight. Rain
will be likely across much of the area through Sunday with rain
chances decreasing Sunday night into Monday from northwest to
southeast Monday with dry conditions for the rest of the week.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mostly near and south of
the cold front through Saturday. Total rainfall amounts will
largely be 1 to 2 inches with amounts just under an inch over
parts of southeast New Mexico and nearing two inches from the
Stockton Plateau to the Rio Grande are in Terrell County.

Some snow may mix with rain mainly above 6000 feet in the
Guadalupe Mountains tonight and Saturday. From Saturday night
through Monday morning snow may mix with rain at lower elevations
including the Davis Mountains as the upper low approaches
resulting in low level cooling. Little or no accumulation is
currently expected, though there is enough variability in ensemble
forecasts to suggest that a small potential does exist for some
accumulation of snow at higher elevations. This possibility will
become more evident with time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  47  40  47 /  80  80  60  50
Carlsbad                       38  44  36  46 /  70  80  60  50
Dryden                         56  59  46  51 /  80  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  43  46  38  44 /  80  80  70  70
Guadalupe Pass                 33  42  33  45 /  70  80  60  50
Hobbs                          37  41  35  45 /  80  80  60  50
Marfa                          41  49  35  41 /  70  80  70  70
Midland Intl Airport           44  46  39  47 /  80  80  60  50
Odessa                         43  45  38  46 /  80  80  60  50
Wink                           46  48  40  47 /  80  80  60  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Sunday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

06/05


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