Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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707
FXUS64 KMAF 230830
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
330 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Another unseasonably warm day is expected today as the region
remains under the influence of upper ridging and increasing
southwesterly flow aloft. High temperatures are expected to climb
into the 80s and 90s, similar to yesterday. To the west, a potent
upper trough continues to dig as it moves slowly eastward, with
the core of the low expected to progress to the vicinity of the
Four Corners Region by this evening. In response to the
progression of the upper system, a lee surface trough will develop
east of the Rockies, and given increasing moisture over the
region, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon,
mainly over the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and
Southwest Texas. A few storms may move east off the higher terrain
this evening into tonight.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area on Saturday as
the upper trough continues to move toward the region. Precipitable
water values are progged to climb to around 1.0 inch across
western portions of the forecast area on Saturday, and up to
around 1.5 inches across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos,
corresponding to roughly 1 standard deviation above normal for
eastern zones per NAEFS and GEFS anomalies. Thunderstorm chances
will increase and shift slightly eastward on Saturday, in response
to increasing support from the approaching upper trough and the
surface lee trough axis which looks to push toward the TX/NM state
line by Saturday afternoon. High temperatures Saturday will be a
few degrees cooler, though most locations will still be above
normal.

By Sunday morning, model guidance indicates that a closed low will
pinch off at the base of the elongated upper trough axis,
settling near the AZ/NM border. This is a deviation from the
previous model runs, which indicated that the trough would remain
open and progressive. Given the lack of run-to-run model
continuity, have not deviated much from the mean for Sunday, as a
closed low would likely slow down the progression of our first
fall cold front until Sunday evening. Either way, rain chances
will increase areawide Sunday ahead of the front due to increased
upper support, and temperatures will be near to below normal due
to anticipated precipitation and cloud cover. Given elevated
precipitable water values as well as the potential for prolonged
periods of precipitation, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
through Sunday night, which could lead to some localized flooding
concerns, particularly over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. Another concern with the front will be the potential for a
few hours of high winds through Guadalupe Pass late Sunday
afternoon/early Sunday evening, though the timing hinges on when
the front pushes through the area.

In the wake of the front on Monday, it will certainly feel like
fall across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas as much cooler
air filters into the region. Monday morning low temperatures will
be in the 50s for most of the area, with high temperatures likely
not making it out of the 60s for most locations. Lingering
showers, widespread cloud cover, as well as breezy northeast winds
Monday could make it feel even cooler. Unseasonably cool
temperatures look to stick around into midweek, with highs
slowly moderating toward normal values by next Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  73  89  69 /   0  10  40  50
Carlsbad                       90  64  88  61 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         93  72  92  73 /   0  10  30  50
Fort Stockton                  93  69  89  66 /   0  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 83  62  80  56 /  10  20  10  10
Hobbs                          87  64  82  61 /   0  20  20  20
Marfa                          86  58  81  59 /  10  10  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           90  71  89  67 /   0  10  30  50
Odessa                         90  71  87  65 /   0  10  30  40
Wink                           94  69  90  67 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

49/84



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