Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 240400

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1000 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015


See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.



VFR conditions will prevail all terminals next 24 hours except
KMAF, where latest buffer soundings suggest VLIFR/LIFR stratus
will be possible near the end of the forecast period. Otherwise,
light southerly flow and a few high clouds can be expected.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015/

Zonal flow into Tue PM will serve to promote low level thermal
ridging and unseasonably warm wx. Flow will back to sw on Wed in
response to a cold mid level low moving into the Great Basin region,
but it will still be unseasonably warm. This backed mid level flow
will be the beginning of pattern favorable for precip that will
persist Thur-Sat. The sw flow aloft will persist thru this entire
period Thur-Sat and will tap into a rich plume of Pacific moisture,
possibly even some of the remnant moisture from a soon to be tropical
cyclone near w coast of Mexico. In general moisture can be seen
through increasing mid level theta-e values and more specifically
in the precipitable water. Precipitable water values are advertised
to go sky high and by 00Z/Fri NAEFS indicates values of +4 standard
deviations! Not only that, but these values will have a good chance
to persist for a good 48hrs. Persistent sw flow aloft such as this
is a good set-up for shrtwv trof/s to get caught up in. Models do
show that there are periods when the 3h jet intensifies. To complicate
matters even further there will be a cold front (modified Arctic)
that will move into the CWFA north of I-20 by 12Z/Fri and windy,
wet and cold will be a good description for areas along N of
I-20 Fri AM. The front will move through the Rio Grande by
00Z/Sat. Thru Fri PM looks like precip would be all liquid, with
possible exception being far n Lea Co where -FZRA will be possible
starting around 00Z/Sat. Model disagreement becomes larger by
12Z/Sat and persist thru the day while GFS keeps all precip liquid,
except n Eddy/N Lea Co where -FZRA would be favored. Surface T/Td
data indicate a little room for evaporative cooling, again moreso
with the ECMWF. Based on 7h temps being so warm precip type will
be either be RA or FZRA late Fri night-Sat night. In general with
such high atmospheric moisture content we tend to side toward the
warmer side of the solution for most areas. ATTP Lea Co and NW PB
would be the areas most susceptible to FZRA and that would be in
the Fri night- Sat night time frame. With travel around the
Holiday weekend and area football games a close watch will need to
be kept on forecast, as it could change over the next few days.

There is good agreement that precip will exit the ern areas around
12Z Sunday followed by a cold Pacific front Monday.







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