Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241714
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1114 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds are
expected to eventually become gusty out of the northwest to west
at all terminals this afternoon although timing is uncertain at
MAF and INK due to a cold front impacting the area. Winds will
weaken this evening and become easterly to northeasterly at most
terminals Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the Central Plains this morning with a broad trough
extending to Mexico will move east today.  another upper trough will
move ashore the West Coast late Saturday and weaken as it moves down
across AZ Sunday and over the area early Monday.  Another upper
trough will follow this one but stay farther north crossing the
plains early Wednesday.

Have a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains... already been
hitting... may decrease a little in the morning then pick up again
during the afternoon.  Have extended the High Wind Warning out
through 00z.

Surface cold front moving down through the Panhandle this morning
will move into the area but not expected to make much progress
through the CWA.  West wind this morning will come around to the NW
during the day.  A secondary push tonight will send it southward
with the wind coming around to the north.  Wind quickly comes back
around to the south Saturday.

Rio Grande Village reported a high of 96 degrees yesterday.
Temperatures will be much cooler today with highs only in the 60s
north of the Pecos River... with 50s and 60s on Saturday.  Readings
will still be pushing 80 along the Rio Grande.  Warmer temps return
Sunday as 70s spread northward.  Another front expected early
Wednesday will knock highs back down into the 60s through the end of
the work week.

Rain chances very low with the lack of moisture but some low pops
may creep into the forecast again the end of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds remain below 20 mph for most locations tonight however winds
have remained elevated at a few isolated locations. Overnight
relative humidity recovery has been poor thus far with rh/s in the
teens and 20s early this morning. Temperatures will not be as warm
today with highs roughly 15 degrees cooler, however west to
northwest winds will push very dry air into the region which will
result in minimum RH/s rapidly dropping to 5-10 percent areawide.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected today with winds 20 to
25 mph sustained across southeast New Mexico, far NW Permian Basin
and areas west of the Pecos River. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
until this evening, at which point winds will diminish and fire
weather conditions will improve. A cold front will backdoor into the
Permian Basin tonight, resulting in fairly good recovery across the
Permian Basin but poor elsewhere. More critical fire weather could
occur Sunday and Tuesday, so stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  31  60  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       69  31  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  36  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  30  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          62  27  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  25  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  31  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  32  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           70  30  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/



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