Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 261043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A cold front moving
thru the region will veer winds to the NW today, brigning another
gusty afternoon. This front is fairly weak, and return flow
should resume after sunset as sfc flow veers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

After a very hot and windy day yesterday, today will be much cooler
with quite a bit less wind. A Pacific cold front has moved through
much of the region while another front is slowly edging south across
the Southern High Plains. A few showers have developed on radar,
but have not seen anything reach the ground due to the very dry
airmass at the surface. A more CP airmass will spill in across the
area today behind the second cold front. Strong winds this
morning will subside through the day becoming light and variable
this afternoon everywhere except the far southern CWA. Here fire
weather will be a concern. High temperatures will be about 15 to
20 degrees cooler today behind the front.

The upper trough responsible for the nicer day today will shift east
only to be replaced by another storm system to round out the week. A
strong jet stream embedded in NW mid level flow will develop across
the Rockies Thursday. This will translate to another windy, hot day
tomorrow into Friday. Will hoist another High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupe Mountains with other wind products likely to follow for
surrounding areas. Westerly, downslope flow will send temperatures
soaring back above normal Thursday afternoon. A high fire danger
is also expected in locations that have yet to green-up. Please
see the fire wx discussion below.

A weak cold front will make a run at the area Friday morning before
lifting north in response to a shortwave digging across the
Rockies. This wave will help deepen an upper trough over the Four
Corners. The position of the trough is not great for bringing
precipitation to our region, but a few showers and storms can`t be
ruled out, especially on Saturday. Temperatures cool quite a bit
Saturday, but a stronger front brings even colder air Saturday
night. Temperatures will fall sharply by Sunday morning with many
locations seeing lows in the 30`s and low 40`s. A freeze is even
possible across northern Lea County. Further north, portions of
the TX Panhandle could see accumulating snow!

The cooler conditions don`t last long as westerly mid level flow
returns early next week along with well above normal temperatures.

FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, and this feature should be east of the region
by 18Z this afternoon.  At the sfc, latest obs show very poor
recovery along the Rio Grande at 06Z, w/RH blo 15% for a good chunk
of BBNP.  Further north, a cold front is working its way south, and
will veer 20` winds to NW and become gusty later this morning. While
RFTI will be high only in the Guadalupes today, Fire Danger west of
the Pecos will be mostly very high to extreme, w/critical 20` winds
at the higher elevations.  Therefore, we`ll issue a RFW for the
Guadalupes south, then east thru the lwr Trans Pecos.  This should
not be a long event...mainly just afternoon hours until post-frontal
winds relax.

Thursday looks like a much more active fire wx day.  W/NW flow
aloft, and NW 20` winds backing to W and SW, recovery tonight will
be only poor-to-moderate at best, giving critical RH an early start
Thursday.  Increased 20` winds and a big rebound on temps will
result in critical RH all zones during the afternoon.  W/ERC at
normal across the Trans Pecos zone, and near-normal Southern Plains,
and RFTIs high-to extreme north of Candelaria-to-Big Lake, much of
the area is a candidate for a Fire Wx Watch.  However, w/areas east
of the Texas/NM border greened-up, these areas can be shaved off.

More critical fire wx will be possible as an upper trough approaches
the region over the weekend, but we`ll mention that in the HWO for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  55  92  63 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       78  54  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  56  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  79  59  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  55  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  50  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          77  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         75  56  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           78  54  93  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains-
     Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Terrell-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29/44


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