Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 212321
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015
See 00Z aviation discussion below.
Most storms are moving out of the area this evening though a few
could affect CNM later tonight near 06Z. Otherwise MVFR-IFR
conditions expected...possibly even LIFR near 12Z for much of the
next 24 hours. Some improvement can be expected after 18Z Friday,
perhaps even VFR conditions before the end of the TAF period, as
low clouds push east.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015/
Currently have persistent moist, easterly/upslope flow across the
region this afternoon with a cool surface ridge centered over the TX
Panhandle. With a much cooler airmass in place and abundant cloud
cover, temperatures remain in the 50s most locations with the
exception of the far southern zones where 60s are more common.
Places along the Rio Grande, such as Presidio, are seeing temps near
80 with increasing instability as a result. Already seeing some
convection develop just south of the Rio Grande in Mexico and should
continue to see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms affect far
S/SW zones through this evening. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy
rainfall will be the main threats.
The next significant upper wave looks to swing through NM tonight
but the greatest upper forcing should stay to the NW of the CWA.
Regardless, we could get at least some weak forcing along with
overrunning of the cold air promoting some elevated showers with
embedded thunderstorms overnight. There could be pockets of heavier
precip given the available moisture and potential lift, so there
remains some concern for localized areas of flash flooding
overnight. Rain chances will wain and shift east Friday morning with
a short lull in thunderstorm activity for most areas through the
afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper trough that has been camping out
over the western ConUS will begin its slow progression eastward with
notable height falls overspreading the region late Friday night,
providing strong upper forcing for ascent through much of the
weekend. With continued moist southeasterly flow in place, will
continue to carry fairly decent PoPs Friday night through Sunday
morning. Again, there could be pockets of moderate to heavy rain so
concerns for flooding and flash flooding will continue.
The upper forcing will shift east of the FA Sunday with rain ending
from west to east. Significant height rises in the wake of the
departing upper low and dry, southwesterly winds most areas Monday
so most areas will remain dry Memorial Day. The GFS indicates an
upper wave passing through northern NM so upper forcing will likely
remain too far north. For now, have continued at least slight chance
PoPs across the far east where moisture would be more readily
available. Tuesday, may have some dryline thunderstorms but no
notable upper forcing attm so will carry silent PoPs for now.
Models indicate another west coast trough mid- late next week with
returning rain chances. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the
increase tomorrow through the weekend, heading toward normal
readings by mid next week.
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