Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 310527
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016
See 06Z aviation discussion below.
Scattered showers remain across the area tonight but lightning has
been sparse so will not include TS in the TAFs at this time.
MVFR/IFR CIGs have been sporadic and will be very difficult to
accurately forecast but it appears HOB (currently BKN007) will
remain the site most likely to remain below VFR through 12-15Z.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/
Bottom line up top...
* Flash Flood Watch extended until 6 am MDT/7 am CDT Wednesday
* Impacted areas will include the upper Trans Pecos of west Texas
and much of southeastern New Mexico, where 1 to 2 inch per hour
rainfall over saturated ground will lead to flash flooding.
* Unsettled conditions continue through the work week, but drier
and warmer this weekend.
A persistent band of convection extends from Reeves County TX
north across eastern Lea and western Eddy counties in New Mexico.
Additional low-topped convection is noted over the Guadalupes and
southern Sacramentos. As was the case yesterday, the air mass
remains moist with precipitable water values between 1.5" and
1.75", well above the 90th percentile climatologically. Moist
easterly inflow and upslope will keep the best rain chances over
southeastern New Mexico tonight and Wednesday. Tall skinny CAPE
sounding profiles and a deep (2.5 - 3.0km) warm layer suggests
efficient heavy rain producing storms.
Elsewhere more scattered activity is expected overnight into
Wednesday as some drying is noted aloft, thinning out convection
some. The same ingredients for flash flooding that is over
southeastern New Mexico is present over a large portion of west
Texas, thus convection will have the potential for very heavy
rain, with flash flooding likely across areas which received heavy
rains since Sunday.
After Wednesday, rain chances begin to wane as drying begins to
overtake the rich air mass. However, the potential is there for
flash flooding rains, just not as much coverage as we`ve seen
these past few days. With that temperatures warm up as well. Highs
will stay in the 80s to near 90 through Thursday, but warm into
the 85 to 95 degree range for Friday through Sunday. Lows will
generally be in the 60s to near 70. Drying continues early next
week with highs staying in the 85 to 95 degree range and lows in
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 70 85 70 88 / 30 40 30 40
Carlsbad 67 83 66 85 / 40 50 40 30
Dryden 73 92 73 90 / 20 30 20 20
Fort Stockton 67 85 67 88 / 30 30 20 30
Guadalupe Pass 60 75 61 79 / 40 40 30 30
Hobbs 65 79 66 83 / 40 50 40 30
Marfa 60 79 61 82 / 20 30 20 30
Midland Intl Airport 69 85 69 87 / 30 40 20 30
Odessa 69 84 68 87 / 30 40 20 30
Wink 69 86 70 89 / 30 40 20 20
NM...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea
County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for
Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54