Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 212000
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
300 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into
the Plains, w/the axis moving out of far west Texas and entering our
CWA at 18Z.  At the sfc, 50F dewpoints backed all the way up against
the mtns by 12Z this morning, w/a Td at KATS of 55F.  As leeside
troughing moves ESE into the Central/Southern Plains, sfc flow is
veering to SW.  A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupes,
but westerlies should drop off rapidly there as the trough axis
passes, and the warning will be allowed to expire at issuance time
for this package.  The big question in the short term is the
location of initiation along the dryline later this afternoon.  Sfc
obs show almost no return flow component, so the dryline will be
"one-sided" in the sense that SW-W flow will be the only component
sharpening it up as it pushes moisture east.  Latest mesoanalysis
shows a cap still over the region, but this should be gone shortly
and hi-res models tend to favor a late-afternoon initiation over the
far eastern zones.  Forecast soundings develop MLCAPES in excess of
2000 J/kg over the lwr Trans Pecos this evening, w/mid-lvl LRs
around 7C/km.  As the trough moves thru, models bring 40+kts of 0-
6km shear with it, so anything that develops will likely go severe,
w/large hail/damaging winds likely.  0-1km SRH`s suggest a brief
window for a tornadic threat, but the better helicities stay just
east of us, and forecasted storm motion suggests cells will spend
very little time in our area.

The cold front will enter the nrn zones by 03Z, and fropa KMAF
around 04Z, at which time the triple point will be well east of the
area.  This should take temps to near-normal Sunday under dry, NW
flow aloft.  Temps recover somewhat Monday, but Sunday night/Monday,
a fast-moving trough digs out of Canada into the Great Lakes region,
and drops a secondary front into the area Monday night, taking temps
below-normal for Tuesday.  Temps rebound Wed/Thu as flow aloft
transitions from NW to zonal, w/temps Thu afternoon similar to
today`s.  Finally, a tertiary cold front plows thru the area
Thursday night, courtesy of a third trough following much the same
path as the second.  Not much chance for decent moisture return by
this time, but some -SHRA will be possible north Fri night.  This
should be the strongest of the three fronts, w/a possible first
freeze areas north Sat morning.  By this time, long-range models are
in rough agreement at best, and differ on the timing/placement of
the upper trough, as well as the front.  In other words, this
scenario is likely to change.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  73  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       45  72  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         57  79  51  84 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  72  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  68  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          43  70  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          43  75  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  73  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         50  73  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  73  47  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

84/44



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