Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181106
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
506 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows two troughs in the west...One digging south thru
the PacNW, and a persistent closed low off the SoCal/Baja coast,
which is keeping SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  A shortwave is currently moving thru the Big Bend/lwr Trans
Pecos, and has kicked of a few -SHRA down there.  Whether it`s virga
or measuring is another matter.

Leeside troughing is set to develop on the Front Range later today
ahead of the PacNW trough, increasing return flow and bringing
dewpoints in the 60s into the lwr Trans Pecos by 18Z.  As low-lvl
flow out west begins veering to the SW-W this afternoon/evening, a
weak dryline will sharpen up.  Forecast soundings east of the
dryline near KMAF at 00Z Mon yield mucapes in excess of 1000J/kg,
45+kt deep-lyr shear, and modest mid-lvl LRs.  The NAM remains
pessimistic, but both the HRRR and GFS bring a shortwave thru the
flow this afternoon, initiating convection along/east the dryline,
followed by a stronger shortwave overnight in both the NAM and GFS.
Also, a 120+kt upper jet is forecast to be just NE of the region to
assist.  However, after yesterday`s bust, pessimism is key in the
drought, and we`ll keep rain chances below guidance.

Although thicknesses are forecast to peak this afternoon,
temperatures should keep climbing thru Mon afternoon, as sfc flow
continues veering to SW and the PacNW trough approaches.  Downslope
warming should push temps to around 80 in some locations.  The NAM
shows a mtn wave signature developing in the Guadalupes for a
marginal high wind event Monday, and we`ve gone ahead and issued a
warning to cover this.  Later shifts may need to issue advisories
for the surrounding plains Mon afternoon.  Mon night, models are in
generally good agreement in bringing a shortwave into the lwr Trans
Pecos, where moisture recovery will be good (although not quite as
good as this evening). for a chance of -SHRA there.  Again, chances
remain minimal.

Tuesday, thicknesses begin dropping as the upper trough arrives,
w/high winds possible again in the Guadalupes.  Temps should still
remain above-normal until Tue night, when a cold front backdoors
into the region.  By this time, westerly flow will have shunted low-
lvl moisture far enough east to rule out any precip along the front
except far ern zones.  Temps will fall below normal Wed/Thu,
recovering to normal by Fri afternoon, and above-normal Sat under SW
flow aloft.  Models hint at chances of rain ern zones Thu/Fri as
shortwaves move thru ahead of the next trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  56  81  52 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       78  47  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  55  82  55 /  30  10   0  30
Fort Stockton                  81  54  79  52 /  20  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 69  46  66  40 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          76  46  74  43 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          74  44  71  40 /  10   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           76  53  79  50 /  20  20   0  20
Odessa                         77  53  78  50 /  20  20   0  20
Wink                           80  49  79  46 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

84/44


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