Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 132257
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
457 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light winds
will start becoming northerly tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds
will become elevated with some gusts during the late morning and
afternoon hours out of the northeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CST Wednesday...it`s a pleasant
afternoon across the CWA with sunny skies and above normal temps.

Satl imagery is showing a weak cutoff low over Northern Baja and a
shortwave diving SSE out of Northern Alberta. Models are in good
agreement for the first 60 hours...then diverge afterwards.
That`s what makes this job so interesting!

Tonight and Thursday will be dry with near normal temps as a weak
dry cold front moves south across the CWA tonight. The upper low
over Baja weakens and is replaced by yet another upper low as the
shortwave in Alberta drops SSE and a piece of energy gets cut off
over Northern Sonora Mexico. The upper low drops south into
Northern Sinaloa on Friday. The GFS/NAM bring some light precip
into the Western CWA Thursday Night in diffluent flow and into
extreme southern portions of the CWA Friday whereas the ECMWF is
bone dry.

The fun begins in earnest over the weekend into next week. Models
drop a shortwave out of the Gulf of Alaska and drops it along the
West Coast. By Sunday morning the GFS has a cutoff low over the
Desert SW whereas the ECMWF has a cutoff low about 550nm
southwest off the Central Baja Coast. By Monday morning there is
even more differences in the models as the GFS has an upper trof
over New Mexico and the ECMWF has the cutoff low 900nm southwest
off the Southern Baja Coast. Due to model differences have pulled
back the pops Sunday/Sunday night. It could be cold enough for a
rain/snow mix Sunday night but with the model differences it is a
low confidence forecast.

Models continue to diverge the beginning and into the middle of
next week with the ECMWF warmer with ridging overhead. If we dare
to look further ahead the models are indc opposite solutions with
the ECMWF indc a very deep cold trof over the Intermountain West
whereas the GFS has a much weaker trof over the Great Lakes. With
this much model divergence and multiple GFS ensemble solutions
it`s a safe bet that the model solutions will change over the next
several days.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     32  58  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       29  56  31  54 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         39  64  38  57 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  37  59  35  54 /   0   0  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  50  31  46 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          30  53  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          31  60  29  47 /   0  10  20   0
Midland Intl Airport           32  57  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         33  57  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           30  57  32  55 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/


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