Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 220902
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool weather is expected today and Sunday in the wake
of a strong cold front, though the break from the heat will be
short-lived. Temperatures are expected to rebound well above
normal into the 80s and 90s by Monday, where they will remain
through next week.

A strong cold front continues to push south early this morning,
currently located south of a line from roughly Sonora to Fort
Stockton to Van Horn at 400 am CDT. Behind the front, winds have
shifted to the northeast, with breezy conditions expected to
continue through the morning before diminishing this afternoon.
Strong gap winds have also developed through Guadalupe Pass, with
gusts up to 60 mph possible through late this morning. Thus, the
High Wind Warning remains in effect for that area until 10am MDT.
Models continue to generate some light QPF across the far Lower
Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and Davis Mountains this morning,
with the best chance in areas favored for upslope flow where
isolated showers and perhaps some light drizzle will be possible.
By this afternoon, widespread low clouds are expected to clear out
from west to east, with temperatures today much cooler than
yesterday, in the middle 60s to lower 70s for most of the area.
Light winds and clear skies tonight will pave the way for some
very chilly low temperatures for early Sunday morning, with lows
in the 40s most locations, with 50s through the Rio Grande Valley,
and even some upper 30s possible across northern Lea county and
the Marfa Plateau. No subfreezing temperatures are expected, and
after a record warm February and March, the date of Midland`s last
freeze was February 3rd. Barring any unusual events in May, this
would be our earliest last freeze on record, breaking the previous
record of February 26th (2004) by over three weeks.

Another unseasonably cool day is expected Sunday, as light
easterly to southeasterly surface flow will keep temperatures
from warming too much across the area. Highs Sunday afternoon will
be in the 70s for all but the Rio Grande Valley where 80s will be
possible. Northeasterly flow aloft will transition to more zonal
flow by Monday, and given a return to southerly flow at the
surface, a rapid warmup back into the 80s and 90s is expected,
with warmest temperatures expected through the Pecos and Rio
Grande Valleys and into southeastern New Mexico. Breezy conditions
as well as a thermal ridge anchored over eastern New Mexico
Monday could yield some fire weather concerns for the Southeast
New Mexico Plains Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Hot
temperatures will continue through next week, with daily high
temperatures well into the 80s and 90s closer to normal for early
June rather than late April. Have maintained a dry forecast
through the extended, with little to no chance of precipitation
through at least the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70  46  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         72  51  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  46  77  55 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 61  44  70  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          65  42  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          69  38  74  44 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  45  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         66  45  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           69  47  75  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

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