Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 241734
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016
See the 18Z aviation discussion below.
Through this afternoon, an area of rain and embedded thunderstorms
extending from southeast New Mexico to south of Alpine, Texas will
progress slowly eastward affecting FST, PEQ and INK during the
afternoon and MAF late afternoon into early evening. Though
conditions will generally be VFR through this evening, temporary
MVFR conditions are possible due to reduced visibility in
thunderstorms. Winds will generally be light southerly, though
variable and gusty in thunderstorms. For the remainder of the
night and Thursday morning, IFR conditions will prevail, though
conditions are expected to be IFR at times at MAF between 11Z and
14Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible mainly at MAF, INK and FST, though probabilities are not
high enough to include in terminal forecasts.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/
See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.
Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue for at least the next several hours. Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop briefly invof KMAF this morning
before scattering out. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
Convective temps should be achieved before noon, spawning a
widespread cu field w/bases 2.1-3 kft agl.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/
Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.
Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.
The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 70 92 68 89 / 30 20 20 20
Carlsbad 66 86 65 85 / 20 50 50 40
Dryden 72 93 72 90 / 30 20 20 30
Fort Stockton 68 90 68 88 / 40 30 30 40
Guadalupe Pass 63 78 61 78 / 20 50 40 40
Hobbs 64 84 64 84 / 40 40 40 30
Marfa 60 80 61 79 / 40 50 40 40
Midland Intl Airport 70 91 68 89 / 40 20 20 30
Odessa 69 89 69 89 / 50 20 20 30
Wink 69 91 69 89 / 40 40 40 40