Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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919
FXUS64 KMAF 172007
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CST Friday...Strong winds continue
along and west of the Pecos River.

Satl imagery indc that the upper low in Northeast Texas continues
to move northeast. As the low continues to pull away the winds
will diminish rapidly after sunset. All High Wind
Warnings/Advisories will be expiring early this evening.

Shortwave ridging ahead of a potent system moving into CA will
move across the Southern Plains on Saturday. This will bring
warmer temps and dry conditions.

The system moving onshore will weaken and elongate as it moves
through the Southern Rockies. Unidirectional flow will advect low
level moisture from the south into the eastern portions of the CWA
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. However...it appears
that the H7 and H85 flow will become southwest Sunday morning
advecting this moisture east. 12Z models and the 15Z SREF are
developing a dryline/Pacific front either in the extreme eastern
portions of the CWA or east of the CWA on Sunday. Have removed
most PoPs from Sunday`s fcst...except for slight chc in the
extreme east. As of now convective parameters are indc that the
strongest convection will be to the east of the CWA.

Ridging will build east into the Southern Plains Monday-Wednesday
leading to warm and dry weather for the CWA. A strong system
moving into the Pacific NW/Northern CA will move across the
Central Plains Thursday/Friday. This has the potential to bring
widespread strong winds to the CWA toward the end of next week.

Strobin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 5pm
mst/6pm cst for Southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos. RH
values have slowly been falling this afternoon as temperatures
rise and should go below 15 percent. Combine this with a gusty
west wind with 20ft wind speeds well above 20 mph and the result
will be critical fire weather conditions. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening ending the short term fire weather concerns.
Lower wind speeds expected tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  77  52  72 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       47  74  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         49  79  52  75 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  50  80  52  73 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 44  64  40  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          45  74  46  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          40  70  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  77  51  70 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         48  76  51  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           47  77  50  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Southeast
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Crane-Loving-
     Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Ward.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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