Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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379
FXUS64 KMAF 141103
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
603 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Despite a few lingering showers, VFR conditions will prevail at
all area terminals through this afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon and evening, with KCNM, KFST
and KPEQ the sites most likely affected by storms through 15/00Z.
Since probability is so low, will add TSRA in the next issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/

Much of the area saw widespread showers and thunderstorms produce
heavy rainfall yesterday. Currently, a dying outflow boundary was
moving across the Permian Basin with a few showers behind it.
These showers will likely diminish as it runs into a more stable
atmosphere over the southern Permian Basin. After widespread
storms yesterday and overnight, the atmosphere would appear to be
worked-over. Typically when this occurs, we see much less in the
way of convection the next day. Would expect this to be the case
today across much of the area except in the higher terrain where
heating and moisture will lead to scattered storms. An upper level
trough will develop across the western U.S. today, leading to
southwesterly flow aloft over our region. While much of the
afternoon may be quiet, another shortwave within this flow aloft
could kick off a round of storms over S NM which could then move
into our area overnight into Tuesday. At the same time, mid level
shear is expected to increase which could lead to more organized
convection. Will keep mention of strong to severe storms in the
HWO with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds.
PWATs remain well above average so heavy rainfall and flooding
will continue to be possible.

Things begin to change midweek as the upper trough over the West
lifts north. A weak dryline is expected to develop and move east
across the area Wednesday. Temperatures will warm back to near 100
briefly while storms develop along the dryline across the eastern
Permian Basin south to the Big Bend. Models show a drying trend
by next weekend as the ridge moves back west across our area. Even
if this occurs, the ridge looks to be in a weakened state so
temperatures will stay near normal and isolated storms will remain
in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  75  95  75 /  20  30  30  30
Carlsbad                       94  70  94  70 /  30  30  20  10
Dryden                         96  75  95  75 /  20  30  30  30
Fort Stockton                  94  72  91  72 /  30  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 86  66  86  66 /  30  40  20  10
Hobbs                          91  69  90  69 /  30  30  20  20
Marfa                          87  65  86  63 /  30  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           95  74  93  74 /  20  30  30  20
Odessa                         95  73  93  73 /  20  30  30  20
Wink                           96  72  94  72 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29



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