Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 242353
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
653 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with increasing high clouds from the west. Gusty W to SW wind
may drop a little after sunset but come back stronger tomorrow out
of the W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper pattern will be conducive for windy and hot conditions
this week, with a couple of cold fronts in between to provide brief
temperature relief.  Rain chances will be minimal, with perhaps the
best shot coming Saturday and Saturday night as a secondary upper
trough is progged to be a bit deeper than the initial one Tuesday
night/Wednesday.

A High Wind Warning will remain in effect in the Guadalupe Mountains
from this afternoon until Tuesday evening, with the strongest winds
expected Tuesday afternoon as the base of a shortwave trough begins
to move over the region.  High clouds will spread eastward ahead of
the upper trough, but do not think they will be thick enough to
curtail deep mixing of 30-50kt westerly winds to the surface.  These
stronger winds will spread southward to the Davis Mountains, which
may need to be added to the High Wind Warning for locations above
6000 feet Tuesday afternoon.  For now, will issue a High Wind Watch
for the Davis Mountains, Eddy County in southeastern New Mexico, and
the Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor where most progs are indicating the
best mid level winds available to mix down, and where subsidence
will be the strongest Tuesday afternoon.  Westerly surface winds of
30-35 mph sustained, and gusts to 50-55 mph, could affect the rest
of the southeastern New Mexico Plains, Marfa Plateau, Upper Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin Tuesday afternoon.  Will mention the
potential for these Advisory level winds in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook, but allow later shifts to hone in on which areas will be in
a High Wind Warning, and which will be in a Wind Advisory.

A cold front will drop south into the forecast area Wednesday with
more Advisory level winds possible ahead of the front over the
Stockton Plateau, Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos.  Cooler
temperatures Wednesday will be brief since westerly flow aloft will
prevail again Thursday as the next ua trough begins to deepen over
the western CONUS.  A low level thermal ridge will rapidly expand
over the region Thursday afternoon, with more wind and fire weather
concerns both Thursday and Friday, especially over the SE NM Plains
and Guadalupe Mountains.  Saturday may not be too different, but by
Saturday night the combination of a deeper ua trough, and rapidly
increasing low level moisture, may provide the only decent shot of
rain for the next 7 days.  Cooler temperatures will follow Sunday,
but the progressive upper pattern promises a quick warmup next
Monday/Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal this afternoon
with relative humidity of 15 percent or less along and west of a
line around Midland to Fort Stockton to Alpine. Winds will be 20 mph
or greater across southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, Van
Horn area, and the Upper Trans Pecos. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect this afternoon and early evening for the southeast New Mexico
plains, Guadalupe Mountains, and Van Horn area. Other places
surrounding this area may experience fire weather criteria but green-
up is sufficient to not issue any warnings at this time.

Fire weather conditions will be even stronger on Tuesday with low
relative humidities spreading across the whole area and winds of at
least 20 mph affecting all but the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and
Presidio Valley areas. There is a Fire Weather Watch in effect for
the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe Mountains, and Van Horn
area for Tuesday. The Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau may also
need to be included depending on green-up in these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  94  61  75 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       64  91  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  97  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  95  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  80  52  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          62  88  53  72 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          50  89  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  94  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         64  94  60  76 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           63  95  60  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$



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