Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242305
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Light winds tonight will turn gusty out of the SW Thursday
afternoon. Gusts could approach 40 kts at KCNM. Otherwise expect
VFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have warmed nicely today with the return of SW winds at
the surface and sunny skies. Weak upper ridging will continue to
build east over the region tonight and tomorrow with nearly zonal
flow aloft expected. The warming trend will make a huge jump
Thursday as westerly winds aloft advect very warm 850mb temps (near
30C) eastward. Along with modestly strong west, downsloping winds at
the surface, temperatures should have no problem soaring into the
upper 90s to near 100 most areas. Highs 103+ are likely for areas
along and near the Pecos and Rio Grande River valleys. Friday will
be similar though temperatures should be roughly a degree or two
cooler... The record high temperature at Midland Intl for May 25th
is 105 and at the moment it looks like this record will remain
intact however the record for May 26th could be in jeopardy as
the record for that date currently sits at 100. Windy, dry and hot
conditions could pose a fire weather problem Thursday and
Friday...please see the Fire Weather discussion below for more
details. High winds are likely to develop across the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday afternoon/evening and potentially again on
Friday. For now, will issue a High Wind Watch for this area for
Thursday.

A slight cooling (a degree or two) is still expected Saturday as the
850 mb thermal ridge edge shifts southward a bit. A cold front is
expected to bring us some relief on Sunday morning, and temperatures
look to be much more reasonable with highs in the 80s/low 90s. The
air looks to be too dry for precip to develop with the frontal
passage and most areas look to remain dry however there may be
enough moisture across SE zones for a few thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon/evening. Will see some decent moisture return beginning
Monday with east/southeast winds at the surface persisting through
midweek. Meanwhile, a series of upper waves are progged to move
overhead which may keep rain chances in the forecast and below
normal temperatures for several days.

FIRE WEATHER...
NW flow aloft will transition to zonal and even slightly SW over the
next 24 hours as a trough digs down the west coast.
Thicknesses/temps are forecast to increase substantially over today
to well-abv normal, resulting in single-digit RH most locations
during the afternoon. Forecast soundings mix to above 600mb on
average, w/30-40kt westerlies forecast, especially SE NM. This will
be coincident w/high-very high fire danger, and RFTIs extreme-
historical. Although ERC is below normal, increased wind fields
support Red Flag criteria being easily met Thu afternoon. Therefore,
we`ll go ahead and issue a warning for SE NM and Van Horn/Hwy 54
corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64 102  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       62 101  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62 101  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  68 103  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  92  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  98  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  94  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           65 102  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         65 102  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           62 104  68 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM MDT Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Thursday to midnight
     CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for Guadalupe Mountains-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/29



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