Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 251137
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
637 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Storm coverage has increased over past hour... have tempo TSRA in
for CNM and FST this morning and MAF afternoon. Patchy stratus
around the area so MVFR cigs possible at all TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level low pressure system is currently spinning
across the western half of the nation and is centered across
western Wyoming this morning. Diffluent flow aloft ahead of this
low and the right rear quadrant of an upper jet across New Mexico
will combine with a moist and unstable atmosphere to produce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today and tonight
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. The rainfall could be
heavy, especially tonight as a 40 knot southeast low level jet
develops and transports abundant moisture from the Rio Grande
Valley. Model qpf signals are not at all consistent in maximum
precipitation amounts or location today through tonight. For this
reason have opted to not issue any headlines with this package
and let the day shift monitor for possible headlines as they
monitor the latest radar trends and incoming model data.

Beyond today unsettled weather is expected to continue through
the work week due to a couple of large and deep upper level low
pressure systems residing across the western states. Deep
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of these systems will allow
periodic disturbances and tropical moisture from the remains of
tropical storm Pilar to translate into west Texas from Mexico
resulting in high precipitation chances. In addition a slow moving
cold front will interact with the aforementioned features and
enhance precipitation especially across west Texas Tuesday and
Wednesday. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible
these days.

Beyond Thursday precipitation chances will begin to slowly
decrease as the second upper level system finally begins to move
northeast into the central and northern Plains and upper level
ridging attempts to build northwest from the western Gulf of
Mexico.

Temperatures will cool to well below normal values by Tuesday
through the rest of the week as the cold front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  66  71  60 /  80  70  80  80
Carlsbad                       83  62  71  57 /  40  40  50  60
Dryden                         81  70  79  67 /  80  60  50  60
Fort Stockton                  82  65  75  56 /  70  40  50  70
Guadalupe Pass                 78  59  67  48 /  30  30  40  60
Hobbs                          78  61  67  52 /  60  50  50  60
Marfa                          79  58  74  54 /  60  30  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           79  65  71  57 /  80  60  70  70
Odessa                         79  65  71  56 /  80  60  70  70
Wink                           83  65  74  58 /  60  40  60  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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