Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS64 KMAF 111125
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Winds will remain
under 12kt through the forecast period, shifting to the N/NE
after 12/03Z as a weak cold front moves through the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the west
coast ridge remains highly-amplified, and is undercut by the cut-off
low just off the coast of Baja.  West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
remain under dry, NW flow aloft.  The 00Z KMAF RAOB came in w/a PWAT
of 0.12", or just over 30% of normal.  This is steady from 24 hrs
ago, and sat PWAT imagery shows all of the CONUS except the upper
Midwest similarly dry.

Temps have been inching up a degree or two over the past few days,
and today looks to be no different, according to model
thickness/temp trends.  However, WV imagery shows a Canadian
shortwave over NW MN, which is set to drop a cold front into the
area overnight, w/fropa at KMAF around 04Z Tue.  This will know
temps down about 10F Tue afternoon, yet temps should remain just
above normal.  Temps rebound back into the 60s most locations Wed.

Meanwhile, a shortwave is approaching the PacNW, and is forecast to
ride thru the ridge and dive into the MS Valley by 00Z Thu.  This
will push a stronger, secondary front into the area late Wed night,
which will take temps to below-normal Thu afternoon.

Temps rebound to around normal Fri, and then above normal into the
weekend.  Long-range models bring a trough thru the central CONUS
over the weekend, and hint at a weak front cooling things slightly
for Sun, but are not in very good agreement on timing/strength attm.
What they do agree on is rain chances remaining slim-to-none, as
cold fronts prevent return flow from replenishing the very dry AMS in
place. Grids remain dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  32  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       66  30  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  40  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  70  35  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  35  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  29  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  28  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70  33  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68  31  60  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.