Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 240203

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
803 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017


Update to allow the Red Flag Warning to expire, and expand the
Fire Weather Watch for Friday.



Westerly winds will decrease areawide this evening as temperatures
cool.  Although isolated locations may continue to have critical
fire weather conditions between after 24/02Z, winds in these areas
will decrease more by 24/03Z and likely alleviate fire weather
concerns.  Therefore, will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire at
24/02Z.  RH/s will also rise above 15 percent, but recovery
overnight will be poor.  Temperatures will not be as warm Friday,
however west to northwest winds will push very dry air over the
region which will result in minimum RH/s Friday afternoon of 5-10
percent areawide.  The west to northwest winds will pick up fairly
early, perhaps exceeding 20 mph sustained along and west of the
Pecos River as early as 24/15Z.  These winds could last several
hours, so will add southwest Texas to the Fire Weather Watch Friday
and tentatively start the conditions at 24/15Z as RH/s will likely
drop below 15 percent in many of these areas that early.

A cold front will backdoor into the Permian Basin Friday night and
result in good recovery.  To the south and west of the front,
recovery will be poor.  West to southwest 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 15-20 mph over portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains, SE NM plains, the Van Horn area and the Davis Mountains.
A Fire Danger Statement is looking most likely Saturday afternoon.
More critical fire weather could occur Sunday and Tuesday, so stay


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/


Update to allow the High Wind Warning for the southeastern New
Mexico plains, and the Wind Advisory over west Texas, to expire.
The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains will continue
into Friday afternoon.  Will send another update later this
evening to address fire weather concerns.


Westerly winds are gradually diminishing across the plains of
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.  This trend will
continue, especially after sunset, so will allow the High Wind
Warning for southeastern New Mexico, and the Wind Advisory for
west Texas, to expire at 600 pm CST.

Strong winds will persist in the Guadalupe Mountains tonight,
Friday morning and early Friday afternoon as a belt of strong mid
level winds persists over the region.  Since these stronger mid
level winds will likely mix down periodically tonight and Friday,
the High Wind Warning will continue there until 200 pm MST.

Critical fire weather conditions will gradually improve this
evening as westerly 20 foot winds decrease and relative humidity
slowly increases.  There does appear to be a fire upstream of
Presidio along the Rio Grande River on satellite imagery, so
diminishing winds will aid control.  Will still likely allow the
Red Flag Warning to expire at 24/02Z.  For Friday, we may add
several locations over southwest Texas to the Fire Weather watch.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/


VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies. Gusty west winds will begin to subside after 00z but
remain somewhat elevated overnight. Winds will strengthen out of
the west Friday mid morning then become northwest around 18z with
gusts near 20 kts. Winds are then expected to become westerly
again by Friday evening.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

A strong upper level storm system currently in the northern Rockies
will move east onto the northern Plains late tonight and Friday.
Windy to very windy conditions will continue across much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico through sunset in the strong
gradient with deep mixing through the column. Will allow the
various wind warnings and advisories to expire early this evening
as surface winds decrease and decouple from the stronger winds
aloft as the storm system pulls away. The exception will be to
keep the High Wind Warning going for the Guadalupe Mountains
through Friday afternoon where winds aloft will remain strong
through Friday afternoon.

As the upper system moves northeast of the forecast area the
associated surface Pacific cold front will move through the region
tonight, bringing cooler temperatures overnight and Friday.
Temperatures, however, will still be well above normal with mostly
clear skies expected. A dry and stronger reinforcing cold front
will push through Friday night bringing more normal temperatures
to the area Friday night and Saturday.

Beyond Saturday a strong and dry flow aloft will continue through
next Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to jump again to
well above normal values through this period with mostly clear
skies and downslope flow. A couple of quick moving storm systems
will probably bring another bout of windy to very windy conditions
area wide Sunday and next Tuesday. Another dry cold front is
expected to push through the forecast area Tuesday night with
cooler but near normal temperatures expected next Wednesday and
Thursday behind the front.

At 18Z, Red Flag conditions were noted from Roswell se to Marfa and
Fort Stockton. Strongest 20 foot winds were over Southeast New
Mexico, while the Texas Trans Pecos was cratering on RH. These
two areas are forecast to increase/overlap one another as the
afternoon wears on. RFW conditions are anticipated to diminish
early evening, but RH recovery is forecast to be poor over much of
the region overnight. This will prime the region for another
critical fire weather day Friday, as critical RH will not be far
off, and ERCs above-normal today) inch toward the 90th percentile.
Although a cold front is forecast to bring cooler temperatures to
the area Friday, this should have little, if any, effect on
afternoon RH, as the airmass remains dry. Main concerns will be
winds behind the front, which will be most pronounced over
Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for this area, and with little changes
to Friday`s grids, we see no need to change it attm.


Big Spring                     43  67  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  68  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         53  79  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  70  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  57  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          37  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  65  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           44  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  69  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           41  69  30  65 /   0   0   0   0


NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.


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