000
FXUS64 KMAF 181117
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR SO THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BURN OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO ALLOWING DISTURBANCES TO TRACK DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT.  THE RIDGE CENTER BUILDS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S.  THE TROUGH WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THIS RIDGE WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST.

A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST EVENING AND
EXITED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS PRODUCED
HEAVY RAIN WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES REPORTED AT FLUVANNA AND OVER 3
INCHES AT GAIL.  A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINED ON
RADAR AS OF 08Z.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH E/SE FLOW.  THE COMBINATION
OF DEWPTS IN THE 60S... DAYTIME HEATING.... AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AGAIN TODAY.  BOTH ETA AND GFS
SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGGING DOWN INTO AREA EARLY TODAY WITH ETA
PUSHING IT FARTHER INTO THE REGION... THIS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  OTHERWISE THE MOUNTAINS COULD BE THE FIRST TO
SEE CONVECTION TODAY.  A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY LATEST SWODY1 HAS SE NEW MEXICO AND NRN PERMIAN BASIN IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE.
COULD SEE SOME SVR STORMS MAINLY NORTH WITH DAMAGING WIND... MINOR
FLOODING AND A LITTLE HAIL.  PW DOES REMAIN HIGH SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE.  ETA DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AS OF MIDDAY TODAY.  MODEL QPF DOES DEVELOP RAIN OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS THAT MOVES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN BEFORE MIDDAY TODAY
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU.  WILL LEAVE IN MORNING
POPS NORTH AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER JEFF DAVIS... PRESIDIO...
AND BREWSTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BUT RAIN COOLED
AIR HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE DAY.  EXPECT TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH LOWER 850MB TEMPS AND MORE EASTERLY
FLOW.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR NE PERMIAN BASIN COOLER TODAY DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN THERE OVERNIGHT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S.  MAY SEE SOME 100S OUT WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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