112
FXUS64 KMAF 021920
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
220 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

WV imagery shows the upper trough over SoCal/Baja, where it will be
reinforced by a series of shortwaves for the next few days, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft.  At
the surface, mesoanalysis shows the dryline has mixed east of KMAF,
and lies over the eastern fringes of the CWA.  Just to the north
lies a cold front, and much of what it does tonight will determine
what happens tomorrow.  Currently, a triple point is developing
invof Scurry County, and this may result in some convection late
this afternoon/evening over Scurry/Mitchell Counties.  Additional
convection north and east may accelerate the front southwest into
the area overnight, w/the NAM and CAMs in pretty good agreement on
12Z runs of banking it up against the higher terrain by Friday
morning before lifting it ahead of a warm front to the south.
Despite the front, there is increase in moisture behind it, and
doesn`t look to be too much cooling.  Overnight lows should be ~
5-7F above normal.

Friday, there will be a little residual cooling behind the front,
but temperatures will remain ~ 5-7F above normal.  There`s a chance
of convection along the aforementioned boundaries, especially in
better moisture in the east.  Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest
deep-layer shear will continue a severe threat.

This convection will continue into the evening hours, dwindling
after 06Z.  A 30+kt LLJ will keep mixing in play, and lows 7-9F
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The forecast for this weekend remains wet for most locations east of
the Pecos River, which is a welcomed sight. A southern stream
shortwave trough is expected to lift out of Mexico into the southern
Great Plains during the afternoon and evening on Saturday. This
coincides with the dryline backing up to near the Texas/New Mexico
state line and a cold front, transitioning to a broad effective warm
front, over the northern Permian Basin. The axis of greatest
moisture is expected to impinge on the intersection of these two
features resulting in widespread thunderstorm development by mid to
late afternoon as the trough approaches. This may quickly congeal
into a mesoscale system as it translates east across portions of
southeast New Mexico and much of the Permian Basin. Severe weather
may be possible with any thunderstorms as sufficient destabilization
is expected with temperatures warming well into the 80s and even
some 90s combined with increasing flow fields with the approaching
trough. Additionally, forecast precipitable water values may well
exceed the 90th percentile for this time of year. This supports the
threat of very heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding.
Any thunderstorms slowly slide east into the evening and overnight.
This convection may further be supported by the low-level jet as the
trough moves overhead, keeping rain chances into a good portion of
early Sunday morning. Overall, a good inch or more of rainfall may
result from this convection, especially with eastern extent.

Convection is expected to have weakened or exited the region by late
Sunday morning. Clouds and rain overnight should keep morning low
temperatures mild in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures on Sunday may be
a touch cooler across much of the area over Saturday, especially in
areas that receive significant rainfall. Another round of
thunderstorms may be possible again by afternoon across the eastern
third of the region but this remains a bit uncertain. The dryline
will be somewhat diffuse, with an upper-low of the Great Basin and
subsidence behind the departing shortwave from Saturday. This may
suppress more vigorous thunderstorm development but at least
scattered thunderstorms remain likely across eastern portions of
the region.

The upper-low over the Great Basin begins to progress to the east by
the start of the new week. Unfortunately, this system begins to open
and take on a negative tilt as it moves into the central Great
Plains, leading to the dryline pushing east. At this time, the
dryline appears to be shunted just east of the entire area keeping
us dry with breezy southwesterly winds. Quasi-zonal flow throughout
the column then takes over as we move through Tuesday and Wednesday
with no rain in sight. Thursday may have a cold front sneak into the
northern portions of the region as a large trough axis develops
across the central Great Plains into Midwest but this is subject to
change at this juncture. Regardless, expect warm temperatures mainly
in the 90s and plentiful sun for the new week.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.  Latest sfc analysis
puts the dryline just west of KMAF, mixing east. We may pop a few
cu at KMAF before the dryline passes, but otherwise few clouds
expected. Cold front progression overnight is still up in the air,
but latest NAM suggests it`ll make it through KMAF/KHOB/KINK at
least. NAM tries to bring in low clouds, but the NBM holds off,
and so will we.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  88  63  84 /  10  40  40  70
Carlsbad                 56  92  60  87 /   0   0  10  30
Dryden                   66  92  68  88 /   0  20  20  40
Fort Stockton            59  93  65  92 /   0  20  20  50
Guadalupe Pass           58  83  58  82 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                    57  88  59  83 /   0  10  20  60
Marfa                    50  89  53  88 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     61  89  63  84 /   0  30  30  60
Odessa                   62  89  65  86 /   0  20  30  60
Wink                     60  94  63  89 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44