000
FXUS64 KMAF 221937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.

THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  97  68  85  /   0  20  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              71  94  70  86  /   0  20  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                65  99  68  88  /   0  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  72 100  73  86  /   0  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  99  70  85  /   0  20  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  93  62  82  /   0  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   65  95  66  85  /   0  20  30  30
MARFA TX                   61  91  62  81  /   0  20  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  95  70  85  /   0  20  30  30
ODESSA TX                  71  96  70  85  /   0  20  30  30
WINK TX                    70 100  71  88  /   0  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/10