Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 060350
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
950 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2013
Latest sfc analysis/RTMA temp fields suggest colder air is working
its way into Terrell County, w/moderate returns on radar. We`ve
donw a quick update to include Terrell in the Advisory. No other
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2013/
A strong cold front blew through the area early this morning
bringing much colder air to the region. In the upper levels a
strong trough swinging across the SW US with shortwaves moving ahead
of it triggered a round of winter wx across much of the region this
morning. The base of the trough will swing across the region
overnight... with a secondary lobe swinging down Sunday... and
additional lobes Tuesday and Wednesday. All this says is conditions
will be slow to improve/warm across the area.
Cold air has moved farther south/faster than previously expected.
A Winter Wx Advisory is now in effect as far south as Alpine... with
a Winter Storm Warning for much of the Permian Basin and parts of SE
NM. A large area of Freezing rain... sleet... and some snow moved
across the area this morning. Had freezing rain and sleet on and
off through the day at the office. Snow reported across portions of
Eddy county and would guess some in Lea county. As of late
afternoon additional streaks of rain... sleet... and snow could be
seen on radar with more expected tonight.
Winter Wx events are rarely clear cut and current models have a
large range as to the amount of precipitation they develop tonight.
The Euro did good with the first round of precip moving across the
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin and does develop more precip moving up
from the SW tonight. Eta... which did not do well with this
event... also does show additional precip moving up from Mexico
across the area tonight. The GFS only develops some precip around
the edges of the area.
A 18z special upper air observation at MAF shows that the column
aloft has cooled significantly since 12z... but a 4000ft deep layer
does remain above freezing. The warm nose... along with below
freezing temperatures at the surface... would keep the precip type
as mainly freezing rain or sleet... with mostly snow for SE NM.
Area road conditions would be worse than they are if not for recent
70 degree wx this week. Refreezing of roads expected tonight. The
worst conditions should be farther east across North TX... which
would affect anyone traveling there from West TX.
After this trough passes the rest of the forecast looks dry. Stayed
to the cool side of guidance or below... and long range guidance
warms the region above freezing on Sunday. Another cold front early
Monday will knock highs back into the 30s. Highs warm back to the
50s and lower 60s by Thursday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 20 27 17 26 / 70 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 20 27 17 24 / 70 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 25 35 24 36 / 60 0 10 10
DRYDEN TX 31 41 26 38 / 60 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 29 36 22 37 / 70 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 30 36 21 35 / 60 0 10 10
HOBBS NM 20 27 18 28 / 70 0 10 10
MARFA TX 31 48 22 43 / 60 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 20 28 17 26 / 70 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 21 28 18 28 / 70 10 10 10
WINK TX 25 34 23 33 / 70 0 10 10
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache
Mountains Area...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING