000
FXUS64 KMAF 171116
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED BUT WINDS WILL TURN SW-W TO S-SE LATER TODAY WITH
AN INCREASE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...

THIS FORECAST CAN BE SUMMED UP IN A COUPLE WORDS: HOT AND DRY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS INCH UP OVER 30 C.
TODAY`S RECORD HIGH AT MIDLAND INTL OF 101 SET BACK IN 2001
SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX
WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SE NM...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. IT NOW
APPEARS ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING
WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A S/W AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OFFERS SOME BRIEF RELIEF TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 90S AND 100S. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME HOPE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
     DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
     MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
     HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.


&&

$$