Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231925
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
225 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

It is much cooler areawide today in the wake of a cold front, with
below normal temperatures expected to continue through the
upcoming weekend. The aforementioned cold front has made it to the
Rio Grande this afternoon, with temperatures struggling to make it
out of the 80s for most of the area. Lingering showers that moved
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this morning have
moved southeast, and scattered thunderstorms have begun to develop
across higher terrain this afternoon. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight, and will
likely develop in two different regimes. The first will be along
any lingering outflow boundaries from last night`s/this morning`s
storms, and the second will be across the higher terrain and
favored adjacent upslope areas given easterly to northeasterly
surface flow. Similar to the past several days, the severe weather
threat is limited, with heavy rainfall and associated localized
flooding the primary concern.

Beginning Thursday, the upper ridge to the west will begin to
weaken, however continued northwest flow aloft and easterly
upslope surface flow will maintain precipitation chances across
the area. The best chance for storms will exist across the higher
terrain and adjacent plains, with potential for storms to develop
eastward across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. The ridge will
be further suppressed Friday, with a shortwave progged to skirt
north of the region Friday afternoon, allowing for a better chance
of storms across northern and eastern portions of the forecast
area. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding look to remain the
primary threats, as weak shear and a lack of a surface focus for
convection will limit organization potential. Temperatures
Thursday and Friday will likely be a degree or two cooler each
day, with highs in the 80s for most.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast
thereafter  due to Tropical Depression Harvey, which is expected
to strengthen to a Tropical Storm and make landfall somewhere
along the Texas Gulf Coast Friday night into Saturday. Both model
agreement as well as run-to-run consistency leave much to be
desired, thus local impacts from Harvey are still uncertain, with
solutions varying from Harvey slowly meandering northwestward into
south central Texas, to the remnants of Harvey quickly ejecting
northeastward toward Louisiana in response to a shortwave rounding
the upper ridge. An increase in Gulf Moisture will be possible
across eastern portions of the forecast area, though the region
could wind up affected by subsidence, resulting in drier and
subtly warmer conditions. These details will likely be ironed out
in later forecast issuances pending better sampling of the storm
and improved model consensus. However, despite the uncertainty in
Harvey`s eventual path, with the upper ridge progged to reassert
itself across the western CONUS, and coincident with cyclonic flow
around the tropical system, Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
look to have persistent northeasterly flow at the surface and
aloft. This will yield continued below normal temperatures through
the weekend into early next week. Thunderstorm chances remain
areawide through Saturday before decreasing on Sunday, with a
continued drying trend expected next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  70  85 /  30  30  30  40
Carlsbad                       69  87  68  88 /  30  40  40  30
Dryden                         74  93  74  93 /  20  30  30  30
Fort Stockton                  70  89  70  89 /  20  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 63  80  64  80 /  30  50  30  30
Hobbs                          65  84  65  84 /  20  30  40  30
Marfa                          61  82  59  82 /  30  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           69  87  69  86 /  20  30  30  40
Odessa                         69  87  68  86 /  20  30  30  40
Wink                           70  90  70  89 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/84



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