Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT THU NOV 6 2014 /100 PM MDT NOV 6 2014/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...USDA...AND NWS ON 4 NOVEMBER...
SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO THE BEST THEY HAVE BEEN
SINCE 2010 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  IN SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST EDDY COUNTY WAS IN MODERATE DROUGHT.  THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT OF
DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.  IMPACTS OF MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS INCLUDE SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES.  IN WEST
TEXAS...POCKETS OF MODERATE DROUGHT WERE NOTED IN THE WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN...AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF WEST TEXAS WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT
OF DROUGHT.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY ABUNDANT
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY IN
SEPTEMBER.  MOST LOCATIONS WERE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR ANNUAL
RAINFALL.  THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WERE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND PARTS
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.  HOWEVER...WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN...AND
MANDATORY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
AS OF 6 NOVEMBER...BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT IN
CRANE...CULBERSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...PECOS...REEVES...UPTON...WARD...AND WINKLER COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
5 NOVEMBER...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 300 WEST OF THE PECOS TO NEAR 500 IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN.  THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL.  IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.  NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
25 PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 4 NOVEMBER BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...IN WEST TEXAS...THE REGION WAS DRY
AND COOL.  GLASSCOCK COUNTY HAD STRONG WINDS NOVEMBER 1ST AND 2ND
THAT CAUSED COTTON TO DROP BOLLS ON THE GROUND.  SUBSOIL AND TOPSOIL
MOISTURE RANGED FROM ADEQUATE TO SHORT.  PASTURE AND RANGELAND WERE
RATED FAIR TO VERY POOR.  UPLAND COTTON WAS GENERALLY IN FAIR TO
GOOD CONDITION...WITH SOME FIELDS HARVESTED AND OTHERS WITH BOLLS
STILL OPENING.  GRAIN SORGHUM WAS FROM 72 TO 80 PERCENT HARVESTED.
THE SUNFLOWER HARVEST WAS COMPLETED.  FROM 45 TO 100 PERCENT OF
WINTER WHEAT WAS EMERGED ACROSS THE REGION.  GLASSCOCK COUNTY
REPORTED WHEAT WAS SUFFERING FROM MOISTURE STRESS...WITH NEWLY
EMERGED STANDS STRUGGLING AND MANY FIELDS STARTING TO DIE.  OTHER
FIELDS HAD SKIMPY STANDS.

IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE COTTON HARVEST WAS IN FULL SWING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WITH MANY PRODUCERS USING HARVEST
AIDS...HOPING THEY COULD FINISH BEFORE BAD WEATHER SET IN.  THE
HARVESTING OF COTTON...GRAIN...AND CORN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
DECEMBER.  THE WEATHER WAS DRY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEK.  COTTON YIELDS APPEARED TO VARY WIDELY
FROM DRYLAND AND IRRIGATED CROPS.  RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE STILL
MOSTLY IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION.  SOME EARLY PLANTED GRAIN
SORGHUM HAS BEEN HARVESTED...BUT REPLANTED SORGHUM AND CORN REMAINED
IN THE FIELD.  WINTER WHEAT LOOKED GOOD.  THE SECOND AND THIRD
CUTTINGS OF HAY GRAZER WERE FINISHED...AND WHEAT WAS IN GREAT
CONDITION.  SOME WHEAT FIELDS HAD BEEN NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY EARLY
SIGNS OF RUST AND GREEN BUG INFESTATIONS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 7.44 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 13.45
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 4.38 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
12.52 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 12.62 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 14.41
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 9.00 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 13.74 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...AS OF 6
NOVEMBER...THERE IS A 58 PERCENT CHANCE OF EL NINO THIS
WINTER...LASTING INTO SPRING.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AS A RESULT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ABOVE...THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 16 OCTOBER BY THE
CPC...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE OR END.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 6 NOVEMBER:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2239.85   0.00     38.44         46.7
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2047.57  -0.01     32.57         22.3
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2035.60   0.04     35.59          6.0
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2329.48  -0.27     37.48         68.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3263.61   0.03     57.61        206.0
AVALON           3177.40  3173.64   0.07      4.64         35.0
RED BLUFF        2827.13  2824.24   0.02     60.24         85.1

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006

$$

DEBERRY














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