Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 221217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221216
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-221415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE IA...W-CNTRL IL...NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221216Z - 221415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OVER FAR SE IA...W-CNTRL IA...AND NW MO. PRIMARY THREAT IS
SVR HAIL. LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT IS ANTICIPATED TO
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG UPDRAFTS OVER
FAR SE IA. THESE STORMS LIKELY INITIATED ON WAA FROM THE NW AND
APPEAR TO BE ROOTED AROUND 700 MB. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES /7.5 DEG C PER KM/ AND MUCAPE OVER 2000 J PER KG.
BULK SHEAR IS WEAK BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY FAVOR A
FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SVR
THREAT IS LIMITED BY SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO NEED A WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40179384 40869320 41329229 41239111 40859079 40339090
            39969169 39979373 40179384



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