Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 010503
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010502
KSZ000-010630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480...

VALID 010502Z - 010630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A NEW SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE THE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 06Z
WATCH EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS REACHING
PEAK INTENSITY /50-60+/...AND ENHANCEMENT OF WARM ADVECTION...WITHIN
THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF UPPER TROUGHING SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ...IS
MAINTAINING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF GREAT BEND INTO
AREAS SOUTH OF EMPORIA.  THE REAR/WESTERN EDGE OF STRONGER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE 06-09Z TIME
FRAME...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS.  WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT
STRONGER ACTIVITY MAY STILL BE PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...AIDED BY STRONG SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...AND THE
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  EVEN THOUGH
ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER TO
THE NORTH OF THE CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE FRONT...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING
AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG SURFACE GUSTS THAT COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 09/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38949825 39009710 38789557 38169472 37599508 37309653
            37529784 37699880 38079933 38579938 38949825



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