Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021935
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-022100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...MD PANHANDLE...CNTRL/ERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021935Z - 022100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL. MINIMAL SVR COVERAGE AND A GENERALLY MARGINAL THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUALLY INCREASING TSTM
COVERAGE AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CNTRL WV
AND INTO NRN VA. MID-LEVEL LAPSES RATES ARE POOR -- LESS THAN 6 DEG
C PER KM BASED ON THE RECENT MESOANALYSIS -- BUT WARM SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. LATEST MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A VERY
MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH BUT EVEN WITH THIS INCREASE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LACK OF SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE STORM ORGANIZATION
AND TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS RESULTING FROM STORM MERGERS AND/OR QUICK
DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 09/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   37887996 38518005 39127981 39457941 39647919 39717888
            39727793 39697775 39477730 39357718 38297645 37747630
            37217656 36887697 36657745 36697826 36847902 37487970
            37887996




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