Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 060832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060831
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-061030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PANHANDLE...FAR SOUTHEASTERN AL...AND
SOUTHWEST GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 516

VALID 060831Z - 061030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 516 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH ALONG A COLD
FRONT...WITH BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THREAT PERHAPS ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT.

DISCUSSION...REMOTE WIND SENSORS INDICATE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 850 MB
HAVE VEERED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN MAINLY
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHERN GA. A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG MUCAPE
PER SFCOA.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST AL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALTHOUGH
LIGHTNING HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY FREQUENT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
FURTHER. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME UPTICK IN WIND THREAT...AS MEAN
WINDS INCREASE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IMMEDIATELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF IT. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE AUGMENTED...
HOWEVER...STABLE SURFACE AIR EXISTS TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
ANY TORNADO THREAT UNLESS STORMS CAN MAINTAIN MOTIONS ROUGHLY ALONG
THE FRONT.

..JEWELL.. 12/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29058695 30348613 31148580 31098466 31488349 31638275
            31548227 31278194 30658212 29368343 29358384 29188521
            29058695




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