Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200302
NEZ000-200400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1535
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Areas affected...Portions of NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458...

Valid 200302Z - 200400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat continues across
remaining valid portions of WW 458.

DISCUSSION...An increase in convective coverage has occurred over
the past several hours across parts of central/eastern NE as a
southerly low-level jet has strengthened to 30-35 kt. Upscale growth
into several short line segments with occasional embedded supercell
structures suggests an isolated large hail and strong to gusty wind
threat should continue through late this evening as convection
generally moves east-southeastward. Although convective inhibition
has increased with the loss of daytime heating, a moist low-level
airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across central/southern NE. Effective bulk
shear of 30-40 kt will likely be sufficient to maintain current
intensity of thunderstorms for at least the next several hours.

..Gleason.. 08/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42040006 42049736 40029736 40020009 42040006




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