Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 171821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171820
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-172015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO/NWRN-WRN AR/NERN-ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171820Z - 172015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE
ONGOING SRN MO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
STORMS TENDING TO DEVELOP/MOVE SWD WITH TIME INTO NWRN-WRN AR AND
NERN-ERN OK.  A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND ANY NEED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK AREA AND A WW.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN EARLY AFTERNOON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS/STORMS FORMING ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE SWD
MOVING SRN MO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  THE MOST RECENT STORMS IN
LAWRENCE TO CHRISTIAN COUNTIES MO HAVE SHOWN HAIL DIAMETER OF 1-2
INCHES PER WDSS-II MESH DATA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY TENDING TO FORM
ALONG S/SWWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO A STRONGLY DESTABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT.  MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW IN SERN KS
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSEWD INTO SWRN MO AND THEN SWD NEAR THE
AR/OK BORDER.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE INFLOW AIR MASS FOR
NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND SWD FROM SWRN MO HAS MLCAPE OF
1500-3000 J/KG.  THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT
SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.  MEANWHILE...LARGE DCAPE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
SUGGESTS ANY COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SWD PER MOST
CAM FORECASTS.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 09/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37389423 37239371 36889266 36259224 35109263 34609399
            34769478 35029522 37029463 37389423



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