Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232200
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-232330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO...NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232200Z - 232330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SERN NEB/SWRN IA/NWRN MO ALONG A WARM FRONT. MODERATE BUOYANCY
AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS...RESULTING IN A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT STORM MOTIONS ARE TAKING
UPDRAFTS QUICKLY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN NEB JUST EAST OF LINCOLN...WHILE OTHER STRONG
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS N-CNTRL KS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH NERN KS/SERN
NEB WITHIN 1-2 HRS. ANY STORMS THAT BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THIS
REGION WILL HAVE A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IF THE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT AND/OR THE ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST INTO NERN KS/SERN
NEB APPEARS TO PRESENT A MORE WIDESPREAD AND IMMINENT SEVERE THREAT.

..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 08/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40379861 40869823 41559755 41829664 41759564 41689510
            41459442 40699381 40149353 39559335 39139358 38969407
            38919527 39159683 39529789 40379861




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