Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290101
KSZ000-COZ000-290200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO AND ADJACENT SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 290101Z - 290200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS
OF SERN CO AND INTO ADJACENT SWRN KS.  ISOLATED/LOCAL SEVERE RISK IS
EXPECTED...WITH SOME POTENTIAL THAT WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY IN THE
NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES REVEAL A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER SERN CO ATTM...NEAR AND
NE OF PUB.  THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AMPLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT /DOWNSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND MIXED-LAYER
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/...WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
WWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ASCENT.

WHILE THE AREA REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WNWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW...LONGEVITY/UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
AIDED BY A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TX/OK
PNHDLS AND NOSE INTO SERN CO/SWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC CONDITIONS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE RISK WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE OVER
PARTS OF SERN CO AND ADJACENT SWRN KS.  EARLIER STORMS OVER FAR SERN
CO/NERN KS AND INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES SHOULD LIMIT SWD EXTENT OF
GREATER SEVERE RISK.

..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 07/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39070158 37730075 37090193 37030366 37880473 38690480
            39530326 39510192 39070158




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