Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 292030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292030
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-292200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO...KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 369...

VALID 292030Z - 292200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 369 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM RISK...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES...CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING-VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO
WATCH 369.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES 2-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS AROUND
1.5 MB CONCENTRATED FROM SRN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND ERN
KY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW ANALYZED W OF DAYTON. THESE PRESSURE FALLS ARE
BEING LOCALLY ENCOURAGED BY POCKETS OF INSOLATION-INDUCED DIABATIC
SFC HEATING NEAR/S OF A WARM FRONT BRANCHING ESE FROM THE LOW. THE
HEATING IS FACILITATING MODIFICATION OF ANTECEDENT COOLER/SHELTERED
AIR WHERE SFC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY BACKED ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SRH --
REF. WILMINGTON OHIO AND JACKSON KENTUCKY VWPS SAMPLING AROUND 100
M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE. THIS
WILL CONCENTRATE THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF NERN KY INTO SRN OHIO AND FAR WRN WV AS
MODEST DESTABILIZATION OF MOIST PBL AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE-60S
SFC DEWPOINTS OCCURS. OCCASIONAL ROTATING CELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM
SINGLE-SITE RADAR DATA IN THIS REGIME. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS
ORGANIZING INTO MORE OF A MULTICELL-CLUSTER MODE FARTHER SW INTO
CNTRL KY...WHERE A DMGG-WIND RISK WILL CONTINUE.

..COHEN.. 06/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   37108645 39678387 39678108 37088374 37108645




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