Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 162216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162216
ARZ000-170015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162216Z - 170015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL AR. THIS ACTIVITY LIES N OF A WAVY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM GREENVILLE MS TO HOT SPRINGS AR TO FORT SMITH
AR. THE PRESENCE OF SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70F
IS AIDING MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
INTENSE UPDRAFTS. AND...WITH 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SEWD/SSEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A DMGG
WIND GUST MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND THE
LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL LIKELY PREVENT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM OCCURRING.

..COHEN/HART.. 09/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...

LAT...LON   34169321 34999386 35339351 35029241 34279185 33769219
            34169321



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