Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291919
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-292015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CO...WY...NE...KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291919Z - 292015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST CO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NEB AND KS BY
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA AND ACROSS EASTERN CO THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO CONTRIBUTING TO LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF CO...INTENSIFYING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL ACT ON A SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY CURRENTLY INCREASING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR INTENSIFY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPEED MAX.

CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...AND
COINCIDENT WITH LEE-LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD...MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
FOCUSED FORCING AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE FROM
NAM4 TO HRRR TO WRF-ARW ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A RAPID
INCREASE IN SUPERCELL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST CO IN THE 21-23
UTC/3-5 PM MDT TIME FRAME. THESE SCENARIOS APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND PRESENCE OF BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST NEAR THE DEVELOPING LEE-LOW AND ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AS THE STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING BEGINS
TO EMERGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41370431 40880467 40460478 40010495 39650494 39240492
            38790441 38720414 38640391 38580350 38630277 38750212
            39140171 40390128 41510128 42020220 42040232 42020329
            41870382 41370431



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