Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270714
TXZ000-270815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX AND THE UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 270714Z - 270815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND THE UPPER TX COAST
FOR MAINLY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING-WIND THREAT AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE-HAIL RISK.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY FROM 0630-0700Z SHOWS THE INITIAL SURGING
OF THE WRN END OF A TSTM BAND TO THE ESE AROUND 50 MI ESE OF AUS.  A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST FEATURING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S S OF AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...FROM 55 MI S CLL TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE
RIVER...WILL SUPPORT WATER-LADEN DOWNDRAFTS.  KHGX VAD DATA SHOWS A
GRADUAL VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE THROUGH 9 KM WHICH
WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  THE PROXIMITY TO HIGH THETA-E AND
STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL CONDITIONALLY AID IN SUPPORTING STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES
ESEWD TOWARDS THE GREATER HOUSTON METRO.  RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR SHOW THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING AS WELL.  IN SUMMARY...WATER
LOADING IN THE MORE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS MAY FOSTER ISOLATED BOUTS OF
DAMAGING GUSTS AND A MARGINALLY SEVERE-HAIL THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   29789753 30309678 30459457 30099416 29599444 29389712
            29789753




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