Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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341
ACUS11 KWNS 212241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212241
OKZ000-TXZ000-220015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1726
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...Northwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212241Z - 220015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will
be possible with high-based storms west of the dryline. A severe
thunderstorms watch issuance is unlikely in this corridor, but a
watch issuance is much more probable farther east later this
evening.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection has developed between the
west/east-oriented cold front and southwest/northeast-oriented
dryline across the South Plains and Low Rolling Plains of northwest
TX. A 54 kt gust was recorded by the Sundown TX mesonet site at
2210Z. Very large surface temperature/dew point spreads will support
a continued risk for isolated severe wind gusts. While MLCAPE is
likely meager, strong speed shear within the cloud-bearing layer
should foster small hail, possibly approaching quarter size. As the
cold front further overtakes the dryline, increasing linear
convective coverage is anticipated and this should necessitate watch
issuance east of the dryline later this evening.

..Grams/Guyer.. 10/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33960202 34160059 34440002 34359952 33309971 32590042
            32510079 32440170 32620237 33100266 33770239 33960202




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