Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250005
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

VALID 250005Z - 250200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. THE THREAT
FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO PERSISTS.

DISCUSSION...TWO REGIMES OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROGRESSING
EWD ACROSS FAR ERN CO INTO WRN KS AS OF 2345Z. AT PRESENT...THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER BACA AND PROWERS COS...WHERE
SEVERAL SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES HAVE PERSISTED. THE HIGHEST THREAT
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...AS STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR MORE
ORGANIZED/LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA. FURTHERMORE...BACKED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THESE CELLS WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 100-150 M2/S2. THEREFORE...A TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WRN KS /ESPECIALLY SWRN PORTIONS/ OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MOREOVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /OBSERVED IN THE 00Z
AMA RAOB/ OVERLYING A ZONE OF ADEQUATE HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN COMBINATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL
THIS EVENING.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37060188 37460268 40240254 39380032 37300067 37060188




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