Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 222227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222226
MOZ000-KSZ000-230030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas eastward across Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 222226Z - 230030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to increase in
coverage through evening, with damaging wind and hail possible.

DISCUSSION...Scattered severe storms are currently ongoing across
much of north central KS near a cold front and where extremely hot
temperatures exist. Northeasterly winds behind the front are
actually resulting in increasing CAPE values as dewpoints are in the
70s F, with much drier air over southwest KS.

Visible imagery and radar show widely-spaced, but vigorous updrafts
now forming along the boundary from northeast KS across far northern
MO and to the MS river. Meanwhile, extreme instability has built up
with MUCAPE in excess of 4000-5000 J/kg.

A slight increase in lift is expected with time, with convergence
along the front and with a grazing of the upper shortwave trough to
the northeast. Shear will be weak but given such instability, severe
multicell clusters are possible, capable of wind and hail.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39039748 39539664 40349351 40329260 39779181 38869158
            38209236 38069465 38069591 38389680 38609723 39039748




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