Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 240423
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240422
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-240545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN NORTH TX/SOUTHWEST
OK AND NORTHWEST OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240422Z - 240545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...NEW TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN AND NEAR THE
ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...
THOUGH SEVERITY MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN TIME OF DAY AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.  A
NEW SEVERE-WEATHER WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR SOUTHWEST OK...
WESTERN NORTH TX...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.

FARTHER NORTH...STORMS NEAR THE NORTHWEST OK/KS BORDER SHOULD TEND
TO MAINTAIN A WEAKENING TREND...WITH THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT
DIMINISHING AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING
ACROSS WEST TX...RESULTING IN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
PER AREA VWPS.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LLJ AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SUGGESTS NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  THE SOUTHERLY LLJ
WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF RESIDUAL MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY INTO
THIS COMPLEX.  THIS COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C PER KM/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT
SUGGESTS ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO
THREAT HAS LIKELY GREATLY DIMINISHED GIVEN TIME OF DAY WITH
INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION...THE LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
/EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2 PER S2/ PER RAP ANALYSIS AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F MAY ALLOW FOR A NON-ZERO
TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34380090 35010129 35890099 37090017 37349974 36519913
            35389867 34539848 34109855 33859905 34029969 34380090




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