Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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510
ACUS11 KWNS 231613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231613
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-231845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN NC...WRN/CNTRL SC...NRN GA...NERN
AL...SERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231613Z - 231845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE. A FEW ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...WITH CUMULUS FIELDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED
FROM NERN AL EWD TO WRN SC. WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
-- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S -- STRONG
DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. TSTMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH AOB 20 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DISORGANIZED. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY STRONG WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WOULD OCCUR AS WATER-LOADING PROCESSES IN THE HIGH-PW
ENVIRONMENT /PW AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES/ ACCELERATE DOWNDRAFTS. THE
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GREATLY
LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR RISK.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34248610 34968586 35648498 35928361 35748252 35148089
            34258058 33458148 33388375 33598563 34248610




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