Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 170714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170713
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-170745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 170713Z - 170745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON WITH THE
AFFECTED WFO/S IN SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  A TORNADO
THREAT AND A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR.

DISCUSSION...06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW
WAS LOCATED NEAR MEI IN EAST-CENTRAL/SERN MS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH SRN AL /JUST N OF MGM/ AND THEN THROUGH SRN
GA /APPROXIMATELY 35 N ABY/ TO THE GA COAST NORTH OF SSI.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED SSWWD FROM THE LOW AND HAD ALMOST OVERTAKEN MUCH OF
THE ONGOING BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SWRN AL THROUGH
SERN MS AND FAR SERN LA INTO THE NWRN GULF.  MEANWHILE...A MARINE
BOUNDARY MARKING THE RETURN OF TROPICAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS /AROUND 70
F/ AND LOWER LCLS HAD MOVED INLAND OVER SWRN AL /NEAR MOB/ AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE...THEN EXTENDING ESEWD ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST
/NEAR FORT WALTON/ TO IN VICINITY OF TPA.

THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MORNING PER A STRONG 50 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL
AL/NWRN GA.  DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES AND SERN U.S. A SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
MAY TEND TO VEER SOME...SURFACE WINDS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN GULF
INTO SWRN GA SHOULD REMAIN BACKED AND ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
/INCREASE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/ FOR A TORNADO THREAT INTO THE
MORNING.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 11/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   29858833 31858769 32038587 32048538 31918411 31738310
            29598355 29138462 29228554 29328700 29858833




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