Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020555
WIZ000-020830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020555Z - 020830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE SAMPLED BY THE ARX
VWP HIGHLIGHTS THE WAA REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH FLOW ACROSS A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
ANALYZED FROM NWRN MN TO SRN LM. IR SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST A RECENT INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WI. THIS MAY BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLIGHT...LOCALIZED BOOST TO THE STRENGTH OF WAA DOWNSTREAM OF A
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IMPLIED BY MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. THIS
COULD BE ENCOURAGING THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WAA ASIDE...OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT DEEP
ASCENT APPEARS TO BE LACKING...AND ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS DOUBTFUL.

REGARDLESS...THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE-BULK SHEAR
COMBINED WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG SUGGESTS THAT A FEW
INSTANCES OF SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE WITH A
SVR-HAIL RISK. NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE PBL WILL LARGELY MITIGATE
ANY SVR-WIND RISK. HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT CONVECTION WERE TO ARISE
AND RESULT IN COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION FOSTERING UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
GROWTH...SOME SVR-WIND RISK COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT -- IN
WHICH CASE WW-ISSUANCE PROBABILITIES COULD INCREASE. THIS SCENARIO
CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY OWING TO THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
ASCENT...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   43568974 44529196 45409172 45549028 45078858 43808821
            43568974



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