Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 222002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222002
NDZ000-MTZ000-222130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222002Z - 222130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...PRIMARY IN THE FORM OF
HAIL...COULD CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL MT THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 1945Z...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN MT /ROUGHLY 50-70 MILES NW OF MILES CITY/
NEAR A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. OCCURRING
RELATIVELY NEAR THE CREST OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THIS RECENT
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY A WEAK NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING MCV.
WHILE THE EXTENT/LONGEVITY OF THE SEVERE RISK IS NOT CERTAIN...A
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR /30-35 KT
EFFECTIVE/...ALONG WITH A MODESTLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY...MAY ACCOUNT FOR
A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
HAIL.

..GUYER/HART.. 07/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   47010696 47580654 47720405 46590402 46470596 47010696




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