Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 212019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212018
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...WRN KS...ERN CO...TX/OK
PANHANDLES...TX S PLAINS...ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212018Z - 212245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG
THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO OCCUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 105F. WITH
THE REGION BEING ON THE WRN FRINGES OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE...MLCAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG IS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE CAPPING.
THESE FACTORS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORTING ROBUST
UPDRAFTS...AS CONVECTION DEEPENS AMIDST IN A VARIETY OF REGIMES:

/1/ STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING INTO HIGHER-THETA-E AIR OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
/2/ TOWERING CU AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO A LEE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NEB TO W-CNTRL KS AND FARTHER SW INTO
NERN NM...
/3/ SOLENOIDS OFFERED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE FRINGES OF A
BROKEN...NE/SW-ORIENTED MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD BAND EXTENDING FROM THE
PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY TO CNTRL NEB...
/4/ DIURNALLY DEEPENING PBL CIRCULATIONS INTERMIXED ACROSS THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED REGIMES AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER...HIGH DCAPE -- ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG
-- WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS...ALONG
WITH SURGING COLD POOLS TO FOCUS REGENERATIVE CONVECTION EWD/SEWD
INTO HIGHER THETA-E AIR E OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WHILE COALESCING COLD POOLS WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED SFC WIND
GUSTS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES GENERALLY AOB 25 KT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION LARGELY DISORGANIZED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37650422 40510042 40549919 39329978 34900172 33760318
            34170470 37650422



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