Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290455
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-290630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0585
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Oklahoma...southern
Missouri...northern Arkansas...southern Illinois and western
Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172...

Valid 290455Z - 290630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe weather will persist with continuing
thunderstorm activity across parts of southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas, into the lower Ohio Valley, through the 01-04 am CDT time
frame.

DISCUSSION...Considerable vigorous thunderstorm development is
ongoing across the region, generally focused within a zone of
enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection.  This is on the
northern edge of warm and capping elevated mixed layer air, which
may not make much further northward progress overnight.  With at
least some further strengthening of southerly 850 mb flow into this
zone through the 06-08Z time frame, some further upscale convective
growth into one or two organizing clusters appears possible.
If/when this occurs, the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts
could still increase.  Otherwise, severe hail remains possible in
stronger storms, and an isolated tornado or two may not be out of
the question, mainly across parts of northwestern Arkansas.

..Kerr.. 04/29/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36399447 37509284 37919038 38118870 37758767 36718827
            36059139 35609277 35449462 36399447




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