Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 280538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280538
NEZ000-280815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280538Z - 280815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
MAY BE NEEDED IF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CAN GROW UPSCALE OR INCREASE
IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW JUST TO THE
NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE NEB WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN
NEB. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NWD ACROSS ERN AND NRN
NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. A POCKET OF MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NEB WHERE
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE NORTH
PLATTE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION WITH SOME VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE INSTABILITY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO
8.0 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION IN NCNTRL NEB MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD. A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41229942 41070115 41250180 41540198 41890191 42430132
            42860030 42789872 41759850 41229942




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