Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271937
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO TO WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271937Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INITIAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND SUBSEQUENTLY
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO...SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE A WATCH
ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT/CERTAIN...DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE
WATCH.

DISCUSSION...WITH AN UPPER LOW STEADILY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /1013 MB/ CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST/CENTRAL KS.
WHILE CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY THICK IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...STRONGER STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KS AS OF 1915Z. ISOLATED
BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IN THIS CORRIDOR...MODERATE BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH
WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST SPEEDS/AMPLE
LOW-TO-MID-TROPOSPHERIC VEERING COULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO...INITIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT RANGE
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE AIDED BY A MODESTLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME
AND INCREASING INFLUENCES OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING
DPVA AND AN ADVECTING PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ATTENDANT TO AN UPPER DRY SLOT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41400209 39759940 38369942 38880183 38960293 38610434
            39660516 41020417 41400209




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