Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 171604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171604
OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-171800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Areas affected...Eastern IN...Western OH...Far Southeast Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171604Z - 171800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Line of storms across eastern IN will gradually strengthen
as it continues eastward in OH. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two are possible within the strongest storms. Trends will
be monitored for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery has shown a gradual
increase in storm intensity within the line of thunderstorm
stretching across eastern IN. Moisture advection ahead of the line
is supporting downstream airmass destabilization and mesoanalysis
now estimates MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg for much of the region. General
expectation is for the ongoing line to gradually intensify as it
interacts with the very moist and unstable airmass downstream.
Strengthening mid-level flow will also contribute to stronger shear
and a more supportive environment for better updraft organization.

Predominately linear mode and the very moist airmass will support a
primary severe threat of damaging wind gusts associated with wet
microbursts. Additionally, the strengthening mid-level flow will
contribute to a modest increase in storm-relative helicity. This
increased helicity and low LCLs support the potential for a few
tornadoes.

..Mosier/Weiss.. 08/17/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   41448521 41828493 41978456 42048422 41988361 41758306
            41058289 38828391 38778621 41448521



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