Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 222215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222214
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-230015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222214Z - 230015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SVR HAIL. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING SWLY/WLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN/NRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM ERN CO NWWD INTO SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY ACROSS SE WY/NEB
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BE FORCED BY BOTH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHILE THE ACTIVITY FARTHER S
WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO ROBUST HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING.

MAIN PROBLEM REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL IS THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE HIGH PLAINS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. DESPITE THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SOME INSTABILITY WITH RECENT
MESOANALYSIS/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MLCAPE UP TO 500 J
PER KG. BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF MODEST UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH
ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST. MOST OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS
DIFFICULTLY MAINTAINING UPDRAFT STRENGTH THUS FAR. AS SUCH...A
CONDITIONAL SVR RISK EXISTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR
THREAT. SOME SVR HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE MONITORED.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...
ABQ...

LAT...LON   41490522 42660539 43460466 43550357 43190218 42160147
            40120092 38600070 36700160 35730426 37100428 39270363
            40770478 41490522




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