Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 230453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230453
KSZ000-OKZ000-230700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS TO NORTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230453Z - 230700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
OK. WHILE A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...ALONG//BEHIND A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS AS OF 05Z WILL LIKELY
TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY MERGE/POTENTIALLY
GROW UPSCALE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN OK. IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA...EPISODIC SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A POSSIBILITY EVEN WITH
A RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK MAY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38669914 39149782 39439647 38669586 38049528 36839562
            36969793 38669914




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