309
ACUS11 KWNS 020427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020427
NEZ000-KSZ000-020600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Areas affected...Northern KS...South-Central/Southeast NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...

Valid 020427Z - 020600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for strong gusts will expand eastward across
north-central/northeast KS and far south-central/southeast NE, and a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed soon. Isolated hail
will remain possible across western and north-central KS in the wake
of the bow.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line over northwest KS has undergone
notable intensification and organization over the last hour or so.
Several gusts from 50 to 80 mph have been reported with this bow
thus far. This bow is expected to continue progressing
eastward/northeastward for the at least the next few hours. Current
storm motion is estimated to be northeastward at 40 kt, taking this
bow to the current edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 by 0630Z.
However, some acceleration of this bow is possible, likely bringing
it to the edge of the watch sooner. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat, with some isolated significant-severe gusts up to 80
mph also possible. Isolated large hail around 1" to 1.25" is also
possible. Given this severe potential, a downstream watch will
likely be needed.

More cellular development is possible to the west of this bow, as
warm-air advection across the bow`s outflow fosters additional
storms. Large hail from 1" to 2" is possible with this activity.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38829697 38379882 38130106 38520168 39570102 40079934
            40559628 39609560 39129584 38829697