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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 180717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180716
IAZ000-MNZ000-180915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN INTO NRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 180716Z - 180915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD NOT WARRANT A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT HELPING TO STEEPEN
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ACROSS THE
REGION...COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
WILL FAVOR A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WINDS
ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN CELLULAR STORM MODE...AND HIGH RH BOUNDARY LAYER.
..JEWELL/MEAD.. 06/18/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 44449582 44829566 45169515 45039463 44579431 44239415
43399311 42909278 42669317 42519408 42579491 42969524
43409546 44449582
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- Page last modified: Jun 3rd, 2013 13:59 UTC