Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 280242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280241
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-280515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280241Z - 280515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

DISCUSSION...AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SD AND SRN ND...LIKELY
ADVANCING E OF UPSTREAM WW 457 IN THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME. THE 00Z ABR
RAOB HIGHLIGHTS AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AIDED BY A MOIST PBL
BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH LARGE DCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG...ORGANIZED/PROGRESSIVE COLD POOLS...SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND UPPER-AIR
ANALYSES...FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD THE RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS E OF WW 457 WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT...AND
A STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCING MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...SOME RISK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...

LAT...LON   43019787 42939838 42889889 42919915 43259933 44769929
            46229945 46689839 46459705 45239660 43399683 43019787



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