Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 011845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011844
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-012115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK / SERN KS / SWRN INTO E-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011844Z - 012115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.  1 OR 2 WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1835Z SHOWS A CU FIELD
FROM SERN KS EWD THROUGH CNTRL MO IMMEDIATELY S OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM 35 MI WSW STL TO 15 MI S OJC.  STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING TO THE S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOISTURE RESERVOIR OVER ERN OK
INTO SERN KS AND FAR SWRN MO WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE RANGING FROM 68-71
DEG F.  25-KT SSWLY H85 FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A MOIST FETCH INTO
CNTRL MO AIDING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION/DESTABILIZATION.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS INDICATED THE REMAINING CINH HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE OVER NERN OK/SERN KS.  WATER VAPOR HOWEVER HAS SHOWN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING STORM ACTIVITY OVER NRN MO
CONTINUING TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES WHILE A CORRIDOR OF 30-40 KT CYCLONIC SWLY H5 FLOW
IS OVERHEAD.  NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE CAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  AN ADDITIONAL COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER
TODAY WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN CONVERGENCE.  NONETHELESS RECENT
ITERATIONS OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE AREA.  THE MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY/SHEAR
WOULD PROMOTE ORGANIZATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND AN
ATTENDANT ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.  RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2 KM MAY LEND
SOME SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER MAINLY PARTS OF SERN KS AND
PERHAPS ADJACENT SWRN MO AND NERN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   38109011 36939342 36259517 36269621 36559674 37169686
            38289642 38879441 39279246 39059084 38109011



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