Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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992
ACUS11 KWNS 192208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192207
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-200000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483...

VALID 192207Z - 200000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
THREATEN PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI...EASTERN IA...AND NORTHERN IL THIS
EVENING.  HOWEVER...A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW MULTIPLE BROKEN LINES OF
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.  ONE LINE IS AFFECTING PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN WI AND WILL APPROACH THE MKE AREA WITHIN THE
HOUR.  ANOTHER SHORT LINE OF STORMS IS OVER POWESHIEK/
JASPER/MARION/LUCAS COUNTIES IA.  AND FINALLY...CONVECTION HAS
RE-DEVELOPED WEST OF THE INITIAL STORMS ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL WI
INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST IA.  ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 30-35 KNOTS.

THE STORMS ARE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH
SUGGESTS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WILL OCCUR AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR OVER NORTHERN IL.  NEVERTHELESS...THE STRONGEST
CELLS WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

OVER IA...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL MAINTAIN SOME RISK OF INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS TO THE
EAST OF DSM.  MORE PROMINENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS IN THESE
STORMS SUGGEST SOME RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/DIAL.. 09/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41819368 43599098 43818743 42748712 42448866 42198936
            40819056 40359270 40299397 40669450 41819368




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