Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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462
ACUS11 KWNS 292242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292242
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-300015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX AND NORTHWESTERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...

VALID 292242Z - 300015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG
WINDS CONTINUES IN WATCH 125...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A LARGE AREA
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WATCH 125...SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY FREE OF PRECIPITATION. AS
SUCH...AMPLE BUOYANCY AND CONSIDERABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AS WELL AS
LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT/ ARE PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. CONTINUED WARM-AIR ADVECTION HAS
ENCOURAGED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE HP SUPERCELL OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY...EMBEDDED IN A LARGER CLUSTER.
POLARIMETRIC DATA...MRMS MESH...AND OVERALL REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE
SUGGEST GIANT HAIL /I.E. AT LEAST 2-INCH DIAMETER/ LIKELY OCCURRED
WITHIN THE LAST 30-45 MINUTES. WHILE THE CELL HAS SINCE WEAKENED
SOME...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
WATCH 125 THIS EVENING...AS FURTHER MID/LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IS LIKELY
WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS LIKELY SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE...A NORTHWARD-PROGRESSING BOUNDARY
NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ROTATION IN ANY
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...ENCOURAGING A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT HERE.

..PICCA.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   31579474 31699533 32629566 34399504 34409363 34039169
            32719189 32349221 32029397 31579474




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