Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281728
VAZ000-WVZ000-282000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN WV...WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281728Z - 282000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WIND GUSTS IS
INCREASING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...POCKETS OF FILTERED INSOLATION ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION ON THE WARMER SIDE OF ABUNDANT/DENSE MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. WITH A
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION -- CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S -- DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING IS
CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 500-1750 J/KG OF MLCAPE AMIDST MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. AS SUCH...DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-ENHANCED
BAROCLINICITY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DENSER MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS...ASCENT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOWS CROSSING ERN KY AND
WRN WV...AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS -- AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES -- WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...

LAT...LON   36977964 36698100 36948193 38048147 38638059 38187985
            37587934 36977964




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