Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 212115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212115 COR
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-212300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Areas affected...Southern/Central/Northeast LA...Far Southwest MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

Valid 212115Z - 212300Z

CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN GRAPHIC.

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat remains but the overall severe
threat continues to diminish.

DISCUSSION...Steady southeastward progression of the cold front
appears to have undercut much of the ongoing storms from southeast
TX into southeast MS. The only exception is across northeast LA and
adjacent southwest MS where storms are still ongoing ahead of the
boundary. However, even in this area, storms do not appear to be
rooted within the boundary layer. Long-lived storm cluster with
embedded supercells has devolved into more of MCS with somewhat
well-developed meso-low. Occasional wind damaging and maybe even a
brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out with the MCS,
particularly as it interacts with the southeastward-progressing
frontal zone, but the overall weakening trend is expected to
continue. Some additional threat is possible with any warm-sector
development but instances of warm-sector storms will become
increasingly unlikely overtime as low-level flow weakens and the
front continues to slow down.

..Mosier.. 02/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31849326 32259299 32559222 32559078 31379077 30049220
            29989428 31849326



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