Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 302209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302209
IAZ000-MOZ000-302345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN IA/FAR NORTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302209Z - 302345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN IA AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST MO THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AT LEAST GLANCING DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NORTHEASTWARD-SPREADING CYCLONE CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL SD.
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A BAND OF PERSISTENTLY THICK
CLOUD/PRECIPITATION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED
ACROSS WESTERN IA IN VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT THAT ANGLES
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
/NEAR 80 F TEMPERATURES AS OF 20Z/ APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING INTO PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST IA...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME NEAR SURFACE-BASED
STORMS. WITH A FEW WEAK/TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS ALREADY HAVE BEEN
NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY...RELATIVELY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILES IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS
WESTERN IA AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST MO. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER/BUOYANCY
MARGINALITY...A BRIEF TORNADO/STRONG WIND GUST RISK CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 09/30/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41289557 42139566 42139474 40569388 40309548 41289557



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.