Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 161148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161147
WIZ000-MNZ000-161745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 161147Z - 161745Z

SUMMARY...A WSW-ENE ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH
PER HOUR...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WI...GENERALLY 20-30 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MI SE OF ALEXANDRIA MN TO 15 MI S OF
ASHLAND WI.

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
SD/NRN NEB PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS MORNING
REACHING ERN SD BY 18Z.  AT 11Z...AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED IN SRN SD BETWEEN 9V9 AND MHE...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EWD INTO FAR SWRN MN AND THEN SEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL IA.  THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NWD INTO SRN MN THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO FAR NWRN IA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM
BECOMES MORE NEUTRALLY ORIENTED AND SUBSEQUENTLY SUSTAINS A 50-65 KT
SSWLY LLJ THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL IA.  THE NOSE OF THIS
LLJ WILL SHIFT INTO SRN/CENTRAL MN AND FAR NWRN WI BETWEEN 15-18Z
WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND AS THE EXIT
REGION OF AN ACCOMPANYING 50-60 KT SWLY JET STREAK REACHES CENTRAL
MN/NWRN WI.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INCREASING UVVS SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF A MOIST PROFILE...
ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FROM
THE SURFACE TO 3 KM WILL AT TIMES BE ISOTHERMAL SUPPORTING AN
AGGREGATION PROCESS.

..PETERS.. 04/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   46719234 46669123 46519067 46329034 46149026 46009075
            46039139 45969200 45749274 45509386 45369457 45189521
            45229574 45659554 46159499 46599358 46719234




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