Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 012330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012330
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-020030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY / SRN WV / WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134...

VALID 012330Z - 020030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 134 AND LIKELY EXTEND INTO WRN PARTS OF VA IN THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS.  A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST OF THE EXISTING
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN KY AND SRN
WV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY
THIS EVENING.  WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT --LOCATED FARTHER W OVER THE OH VALLEY-- STRONG MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EWD PROGRESSION AND STORM
ORGANIZATION/VENTING NEEDED FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED
SEVERE RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL ACT TO
GRADUALLY PROMOTE BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION BUT AROUND 1000 J PER
KG MUCAPE AND AROUND 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WEAK
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTER INTO THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37728284 38298189 37907924 37337924 36647998 36678107
            37248314 37728284



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