Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 191937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191936
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-192130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0782
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central/northern VA...DC...MD...
DE...southeastern PA...NJ...and the NYC Metro Vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191936Z - 192130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong/gusty wind and marginally severe hail
threat may develop through this evening. Due to the overall marginal
severe weather risk, watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection developing along a surface trough
extends from central VA northeastward to just northwest of the NYC
metro as of 1930Z. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s and
lower 90s amidst strong diurnal heating, and sufficient low-level
moisture is contributing to weak/moderate instability. MLCAPE
generally ranges from 1000-2000 J/kg, increasing with southward
extent across the discussion area. However, this region will remain
displaced to the south of stronger mid-level flow associated with an
eastward-moving trough across Ontario/Quebec and New England.
Indeed, 19Z RAP Mesoanalysis suggests 500 mb flow of 25-35 kt will
remain over this area, and effective bulk shear should remain weak
(30 kt or less) owing to these modest mid-level winds and veered
westerly/northwesterly low-level winds. While isolated instances of
marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds producing tree damage
cannot be ruled out, the overall severe threat will likely remain
too marginal to warrant watch issuance due to the limited kinematic
environment.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 05/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38397927 39177826 40057664 41037425 41097361 41017339
            40587324 40457390 39697406 38947470 38387703 38047899
            38397927




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