Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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657
ACUS11 KWNS 171933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171933
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Areas affected...Southern Ohio and northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171933Z - 172030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Bands of thunderstorms have increased in intensity this
afternoon. Watch issuance may be needed within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Strengthening of storms within the convective line
moving across Ohio has been slow to materialize so far this
afternoon. However, recent radar imagery from KILN has shown a
transition to more well-organized bowing segments over the past hour
or so, signaling the anticipated storm strengthening may be coming
to fruition. Owing to favorable diurnal heating downstream, MLCAPE
values have risen to around 1000-1500 J/kg, enhancing storm vigor.
Recent KILN VWP data display generally unidirectional deep-layer
flow, somewhat parallel to the ongoing segments. In turn, a
continuation of small lines/bows is expected this afternoon, with an
attendant threat of a few damaging gusts. As such, watch issuance
may be needed within the next hour.

..Picca/Mosier/Weiss.. 08/17/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   39768401 39968383 40198349 40288146 40228056 39698091
            38538251 38518401 38748493 39638422 39768401




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