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000
ACUS11 KWNS 150336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150335
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-150930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0935 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma...and
southwest Kansas

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 150335Z - 150930Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with embedded thunderstorms, will persist
overnight in southwest-northeast band from the Texas Panhandle
across northwest Oklahoma into southwest Kansas.  Freezing rain
rates of .05 to .15" per hour will be possible, though ice accretion
rates may be less with surface temperatures of mainly 30-32 F.

DISCUSSION...A persistent band of freezing rain has been spreading
northeastward from the Texas Panhandle across northwest Oklahoma and
southwest Kansas.  Some minor erosion of the cold air mass has
occurred near the ground, as surface temperatures have warmed about
1 F over the past three hours within the freezing rain area.  Still,
temperatures will likely remain at or below the melting point, so
additional ice accumulation is expected with precipitation rates of
.05 to .15" per hour.  Unlike the break in precipitation shown in
recent runs of the HRRR, expect elevated convection to continue to
develop and spread northeastward across the Texas Panhandle tonight.
The continued development of precipitation will be supported by warm
advection on the nose of a gradually strengthening LLJ, with 250-500
J/kg of MUCAPE to support thunderstorms and locally enhanced
rainfall rates.  Precipitation coverage should also increase toward
sunrise as a lead shortwave trough ejects north-northeastward around
the periphery of the closed low over northern Mexico.

..Thompson.. 01/15/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37470052 37879983 37839841 37699813 37459790 37109796
            36479857 35869957 35380066 35200119 35180147 35340199
            35730200 36370157 37470052




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