Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 010210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010209
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-010345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IOWA AND ADJACENT NRN MO...SERN MN...SWRN
WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 482...

VALID 010209Z - 010345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 482 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...LIKELY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE THROUGH AT LEAST THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME.  THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 481 AND TORNADO WATCH 482 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DISCUSSION...RECENT OBSERVED TRENDS IN LIGHTNING AND WDSS-II CAPPI
DATA SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS GENERALLY LEVELED OFF
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH MAY
STILL OCCUR...A SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INCREASE IN INTENSITY SEEMS
UNLIKELY AS NEAR SURFACE INFLOW CAPE BEGINS TO WANE.  HOWEVER...AS
THE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY PIVOTS EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING...SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF PRE-FRONTAL
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /40-50 KT/ STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE.  THIS
PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN A CONTINUING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH LINGERING CONVECTION SPREADING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST 03-06Z.

..KERR.. 09/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   43109299 44249257 44239096 43119025 41219091 40099238
            39579415 39989457 40499476 41379362 43109299




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