Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 010056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010055
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-010230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 380...

VALID 010055Z - 010230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 380 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH DISCRETE SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSING SUPERCELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER SEVERAL
HOURS...

DISCUSSION...A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE FORMED...ARE
ONGOING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEAR THE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING ACROSS THE
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER MAY BE ENHANCING ACTIVITY...BUT MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN UPSCALE GROWING STORM CLUSTER.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR
IS QUITE STRONG...WITH NEAR SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLIES VEERING TO
NORTHWESTERLY /AT 40-50 KT/ AROUND 500 MB.  AND STORM PROPAGATION IS
GENERALLY ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CAPE THAT APPEARS ON THE ORDER
OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...WITH
DISCRETE STORMS PROBABLY DEVELOPING/SPREADING SOUTH AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE BLACK HILLS AREA.

..KERR.. 07/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   48390537 47940426 47810324 47420303 46640242 45660229
            44680189 43870221 43850331 44360374 45610393 46430420
            47280504 48390537




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