Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271855
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-272030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...FAR SW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271855Z - 272030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. GIVEN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAYBE A
TORNADO...A WATCH IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BLOSSOMING
CU FIELD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WITH GLD OBSERVATION GOING FROM 68/57 TO 74/59 DURING THE LAST HOUR.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN YUMA COUNTY WITH THAT
TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.
A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS SAMPLED BY DDC AND LBF
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING AND MOST RECENT VAD DATA DOES NOT PROVIDE
ENOUGH DATA TO DETERMINE IF THIS WEAKNESS STILL EXIST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. INCREASED MID-LEVEL WINDS
WOULD FAVOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. A WEAKER MID-LEVEL
WIND PROFILE WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN CLOSER STORM PROXIMITY AND A
QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. EITHER WAY...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND THE SEVERE THREAT AND
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MERIT A WATCH.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39080260 40500305 40980232 40520128 39290039 37250010
            37250206 39080260



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