Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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562
ACUS11 KWNS 270540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270540
MOZ000-ARZ000-270715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/SRN MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112...

VALID 270540Z - 270715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...NRN PART OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ATOP
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SRN MO.  ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS...APCHG OR BRIEFLY REACHING SVR LIMITS...STILL ARE
PSBL ESPECIALLY NEAR AR BORDER.  WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY DAY
MCS THAT NOW IS WEAKENING OVER ERN KY...ARCHING FROM NEAR MEM ACROSS
NRN AR TO BARRY/NEWTON COUNTIES MO.  SQUALL LINE WILL OVERTAKE THIS
BOUNDARY FROM W-E AT PACE FASTER THAN NWD MOTION OF
BOUNDARY...EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING MOST UNSTABLE/SFC-BASED INFLOW AIR
SWD AWAY FROM MO WITH TIME.  FOR NEXT 1-2 HOURS...NARROW/TRIANGULAR
WEDGE OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IS EVIDENT OVER SWRN MO...AMIDST
35-40 KT SWLY EFFECTIVE-SHEAR VECTORS...BASED ON MODIFIED MODEL
SOUNDINGS.  THIS MAY SUPPORT EXTENSION OF WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH
SQUALL LINE ACROSS PARTS OF MO NEAR SGF AND SW TBN...E OF PRESENT
WW.  HOWEVER...BUOYANCY AVAILABLE TO SQUALL LINE WILL DIMINISH WITH
EWD EXTENT ACROSS MO OZARKS...AND CINH WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY...WITH
SFC TEMPS LOW-MID 60S F AND DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F S AND
E OF TBN IN OUTFLOW AIR.

..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   38869417 38579311 37939136 37509110 36879096 36539160
            36479313 36509437 38869417




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