Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231546
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NERN NY

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 231546Z - 231745Z

SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IS PLANNED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NERN NY FOR THE 1630Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH -- 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD INSOLATION DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SRN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS...ARE FORECAST TO SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/VIGOR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
IN MANY AREAS...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL EXIST AMIDST SEASONABLY
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT EWD/SEWD-MOVING MULTICELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS. WITH CONVECTION ALREADY
INCREASING UPSHEAR IN CANADA...GIVEN THE INCREASED FORCING FOR
ASCENT...WIDESPREAD DIABATIC SFC HEATING...AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS -- THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT
GREATER COVERAGE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   44057442 45057454 45397186 45467067 44177049 43247106
            42937235 43097350 44057442




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