Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 202357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202356
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MO...CNTRL/NRN/WRN IL...SERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202356Z - 210200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBS AND PLAN-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF VWP DATA INDICATE
WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...ENCOURAGING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE TOWERS PER VIS IMAGERY. SOME
OF THESE TOWERS APPEAR TO BE GLACIATING IN NRN MO TO CNTRL
IL...WHERE STRONGER BUOYANCY EXISTS OWING TO THE LACK OF ANTECEDENT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND IN PROXIMITY TO RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A STRONG
TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
SUCH POTENTIAL WOULD BE AUGMENTED BY 40-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OFFERED BY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39159274 40059376 41699143 41588889 40898808 39658892
            39159274



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