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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231550
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231550Z - 231745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL HAZARD SHOULD
DEVELOP AS CONVECTION DEEPENS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. WEAKER
DEEP-LAYER FLOW RELATIVE TO AREAS NEWD MAY TEMPER THE OVERALL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM 30 E ZZV NEAR HTS ALONG A RELATIVELY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT. A
DEEPENING CU FIELD WAS NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM ERN KY INTO WRN PA. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S...MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG GIVEN THE
EXPECTED MAINTENANCE OF LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT THAT 700 MB WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AT
PRESENT...OVERALL SETUP WILL MOST LIKELY YIELD A FEW MULTICELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   37908226 38298240 39048169 39808124 40458105 40918040
            41067943 40957854 40777825 40337834 39527892 38158013
            37738095 37628167 37908226

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