Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 272157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272157
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-280000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PNHDL...NERN CO...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272157Z - 280000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO
THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST KS.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A RELATIVELY
RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL WY DURING THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH.
SO FAR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CO...BUT RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
SURFACE-BASED CU OVER PARTS OF THIS AREA.  CAM GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN NEB INTO NORTHWEST
KS...WITH ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF A LINE FROM AIA-GLD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THE STRONGER CELLS COULD ATTAIN
ROTATION WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  MAIN CONCERN IS
COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS AND WHETHER A WW IS WARRANTED.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THIS REGION.

..HART/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42290488 42970399 42710233 41530137 39960118 39140217
            39260359 40310446 42290488



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