Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261943
NDZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH NCNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261943Z - 262145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DEVELOPING STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN THROUGH
NCNTRL ND. THIS REGION WILL BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN THE 20Z
OUTLOOK UPDATE...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...AS OF MID AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN ND. STRONG DIABATIC WARMING IS
OCCURRING WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR 90F...BUT TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER WRN
AND CNTRL ND. THIS REGION RESIDES ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WITH 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS AS
WELL AS SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..DIAL/CARBIN.. 07/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   47270341 48340242 48910117 48540025 47440142 46600255
            47270341




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