Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 112153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112153
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-112330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO/NE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112153Z - 112330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STORMS NEAR THE RATON MESA.

DISCUSSION...A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS WITH THE CELL OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO EXHIBITING SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE. OVERALL BUOYANCY IS LIKELY WEAK...BUT A PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MAINLY MIDDLE
50S SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG AND S OF A W/E-ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS
FAR SERN CO. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH SHOULD YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL IN A COUPLE OF STORMS. THE NRN PORTION OF THE SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IN ERN CO BY ABUNDANT STRATUS/COLD
TEMPERATURES N OF THE FRONT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 09/11/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37540461 37760362 38010264 37930224 37690198 37220197
            36680256 36230334 35970423 35870490 35990520 36180513
            36390510 37540461



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