Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 081125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081124
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-081730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF EASTERN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 081124Z - 081730Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1
INCH/HOUR BETWEEN 12-15Z /7-10 AM EST/ ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA
AND PARTS OF EASTERN MA...WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS RATE TO
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAINS ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA.

MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SUGGESTING A SEPARATE
SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN CT TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MA BY 15Z...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  SNOWFALL
RATES IN THIS BAND SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 1 INCH/HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE SPATIOTEMPORAL WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA...INCLUDING SNOWFALL RATES AND STRENGTHENING WINDS/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.  GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS /SLR/ SHOULD BE
AROUND 8 TO 1 ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...RESULTING IN WETTER
SNOW...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS COULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE.

AT 11Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED AND RELATIVELY
STRONG SURFACE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE NC COAST NEAR 35.5N/69W.
TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
BANDS WITHIN THE OUTERMOST REGIONS OF THE WESTERN THROUGH NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...NOW MOVING INTO CAPE COD...
SOUTHEAST MA AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.  THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE.  AN INCREASE IN UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA...RESULTING IN GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES
WITHIN THE MESOSCALE BANDING.  IN ADDITION...AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF 70W LONGITUDE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK
TO NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE TRAJECTORIES
INTO EASTERN MA WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW.

GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF MA INCLUDING
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT AND GUSTS
OF 40-45 KT HAVE BEEN MEASURED SINCE 8-10Z AT KACK/KMVY/KFMH.

..PETERS.. 02/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   41096990 41167097 40897213 40837298 42007260 42517189
            42637149 42757075 42397021 42106992 41636982 41096990



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