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000
ACUS11 KWNS 210607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210607
TXZ000-OKZ000-210800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Areas affected...North-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 210607Z - 210800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A new WW issuance into north-central TX is unlikely, as
storm coverage is expected to remain quite low to the southeast and
south of WW 152.  If the storm located in southern Wichita and
northern Archer Counties TX remains strong until 07-0730Z, then a
marginal hail threat cannot be ruled out into Montague County and
other north-central TX counties by 08-09Z.

DISCUSSION...Trends since 05Z in MRMS 7-km and 9-km CAPPI have shown
some weakening with the persistent storm tracking to the
east-southeast from western North TX (in southern Wichita/northern
Archer Counties at 0545Z) toward north-central TX.  However, the
last few reflectivity scans have indicated some sustenance with MRMS
MESH indicating hail size of 1-1.5 inches in diameter possible.
Early overnight surface analyses indicated this storm had moved
south of the cold front which extended from northeast AR to
southeast OK and then westward in vicinity of the Red River to
Wilbarger County TX and southwest across west TX.

Given the presence of strong surface-based inhibition and the lack
of lift south of the cold front, current thinking suggests this
storm should weaken as it moves farther away from the cold front.
And, for the same reasoning, new storm development is not expected
south of the cold front.

..Peters/Edwards.. 04/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33839793 33879763 33899671 33249662 33219689 33159776
            33159792 33299810 33469806 33839793



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