Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 211818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211817
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-211945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...MUCH OF GEORGIA...EASTERN ALABAMA...AND PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211817Z - 211945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SPORADIC/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER.  A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...STRONG INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS AIDING IN
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT THIS
TIME.  AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...DEEP SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT /AROUND 20 KT/.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND SMALL HAIL THREAT WILL
EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...AND ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN
CONGEAL INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS AND PROPAGATE WITHIN THE UNDISTURBED
AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE PRE-CONVECTIVE AIRMASS.  ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT
LIKELY FOR THIS ACTIVITY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LINEAR SEGMENTS
THAT CAN ORGANIZE.

..COOK/HART.. 07/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

LAT...LON   31048628 31638688 32948705 33808690 34328639 34728566
            35048463 35278325 35358267 34768176 34228140 33708179
            33068254 32058309 31788320 31488344 30808367 30318378
            30178430 30268508 30508571 30778603 31048628




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