Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 150631
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150630
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-150730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 82...

VALID 150630Z - 150730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 82
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITHIN THE REMAINDER OF WW 82...TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST A NEW WW IS NOT NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WATCH.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY OF THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS INDICATED A DECREASE IN ITS EWD SPEED BETWEEN 05-06Z
/FROM 25 KT TO 20 KT...RESPECTIVELY/.  AN MCV REMAINED DETECTABLE IN
RADAR IMAGERY WITH THE LEADING N-S LINE OF STORMS...WITH THIS
FEATURE MOVING INTO FAR SWRN GA FROM THE FL PANHANDLE.  THE MCV WAS
LOCATED NE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR PFN.  MEANWHILE...TRENDS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED WARMING CLOUD TOPS...SUGGESTIVE OF A
WEAKENING TREND IN STORM INTENSITIES.

A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD EXTEND
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE NWRN GULF COAST BY 12Z.  AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITH THE SRN EXTENT TRAILING SSWWD FROM NERN TO SWRN GA AND INTO THE
NERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF PFN.  ASCENT WITHIN AN
INCREASING DIFLUENT FLOW REGIME EXPECTED OVER SRN GA/NRN FL THROUGH
EARLY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH COMBINED WITH
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER/HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO THE EAST OF
THE ONGOING FL PANHANDLE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN AN EWD THREAT FOR
TSTMS.  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER
AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO A REGION WITH GREATER SURFACE BASED
INHIBITION AND WEAKER INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 04/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30038687 30988648 31238523 31338440 31248351 31058318
            30568314 29878350 29568391 29668448 29288491 29258525
            29468569 29868619 30038687



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