Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 232054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232054
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-232330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND...ERN SD...WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232054Z - 232330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR A SVR RISK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SVR RISK...WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER/DESTABILIZE ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...AIR-MASS RECOVERY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MN/SERN
ND IS STILL IN EARLY PHASES...WITH WAVE/BILLOW CLOUDS DETECTED BY
VIS IMAGERY IN THESE AREAS. ALSO...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVERSPREADING THE NRN PLAINS FROM SW TO NE...THOUGH
THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. THIS
ASCENT...COUPLED WITH FRONTAL ASCENT...SUGGEST THAT SOME INCREASE IN
TSTMS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS -- AS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ERN ND.

THE ABR 19Z RAOB INDICATES AMPLE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WITH ONLY MODEST
REMAINING INHIBITION -- REFLECTING THE LEAST CONVECTIVELY-PERTURBED
AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUPPORTS THE NOTION THAT A SVR RISK MAY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AIDED
BY 30-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTING SVR HAIL/WIND.
HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL DRYING...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
EARLY STAGES OF AIR-MASS RECOVERY IN SOME AREAS DETRACT CONFIDENCE
IN SPECIFYING DETAILS REGARDING THE EXACT CONVECTIVE/SVR EVOLUTION
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ATTM. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   44389713 45409829 47119822 47749737 47609612 47039546
            45289508 44719539 44389713




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.