Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 272130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272129
WYZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272129Z - 272330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY W/SW OF RECENTLY ISSUED SVR TSTM
WW 456 WILL EXPERIENCE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE W/SW OF WW 456 WILL
BE UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE SRN EXTENT OF STRONG DCVA PRECEDING A POTENT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GLANCING NRN/CNTRL/WRN WY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
LOOPS...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY WHILE SPREADING
EWD/NEWD AMIDST ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. DEEP INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
ENCOURAGE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED SVR WIND
GUSTS. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/BOWING SEGMENTS...ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP
SHEAR /25-30 KT SAMPLED BY THE RIW VWP/ ENHANCED BY MID-LEVEL FLOW
SURROUNDING THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DEARTH OF TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE -- E.G. PW VALUES AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH PER GPS DATA --
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE/SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...

LAT...LON   44880884 44540739 44210624 43050626 42540729 42720829
            43290899 44210943 44880884




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