Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 210248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210248
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-210345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Areas affected...Coastal areas of
Louisiana...Mississippi...Alabama...and the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 210248Z - 210345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A recent uptick in convection has occurred over the past
hour over coastal waters, with convection expected to eventually
migrate inland.  A tornado watch is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has increased in coverage and
intensity over the past half hour, although this uptick has occurred
primarily over open coastal waters from near the Chandeleur Islands
eastward to areas near/south of Apalachicola, FL.  The greatest
instability (boosted by mid/upper 70s F dewpoints) remains offshore,
although some of the more unstable air has worked its way
northwestward into far southeastern Louisiana, where objective
analyses indicate nearly 1000 J/kg MUCAPE amidst 77-80 F dewpoints.
These higher dewpoints will advect northward gradually, with an
increase in the potential for low-level mesocyclones and tornadoes
gradually increasing in the discussion area in conjunction with the
slightly greater destabilization.

With these factors in mind, a tornado watch is being considered over
the next hour or so.

..Cook/Guyer.. 06/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   29368919 29148925 29118998 29239029 29729027 30129014
            30468975 30688908 30858819 30938742 30878658 30668557
            30398512 29998484 29678485 29598507 29898562 30178615
            30268685 30208763 30088829 30078872 29598909 29368919




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