Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 142032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142032
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-142300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Western Texas
Panhandle...Western Oklahoma Panhandle...Far Southeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 142032Z - 142300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for hail and isolated wind damage will continue
to develop late this afternoon across parts of northeast New Mexico
and far southeast Colorado. The threat should eventually spread
eastward into the western Texas Panhandle. Although weather watch
issuance appears unlikely, the situation will continue to be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a mesolow over
southeast Colorado with south to southeasterly flow southward into
northeast New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle. The airmass
across this area is moist with surface dewpoints generally in the
lower to mid 60s F. This is resulting in a pocket of moderate
instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE values in the 2000 to
2500 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is weak, the RAP is
showing steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8.0 C/km across
northeast New Mexico. This should be sufficient for strong updrafts.
Cell mode should initially be pulse due to the weak deep-layer
shear. As cell coverage continues to increase and storms move
southeastward into the stronger instability, the development of a
cold pool will be possible. This would result in a potential for
isolated wind damage. Hail will also be possible with the stronger
updrafts.

..Broyles/Weiss.. 08/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36430147 37060156 37340212 37390293 36530460 35910496
            34840431 34390267 35000178 36430147




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