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000
ACUS11 KWNS 221846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221846
NYZ000-PAZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221846Z - 222045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AROUND 00Z. HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS EARLY...WITH A TORNADO THREAT MATERIALIZING
LATE.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO FORCE STORMS...CONTINUED HEATING
WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH ADDITIONAL FORMATION
POSSIBLE.

WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE GOING TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS. PROFILES WILL BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN LAKE
ERIE. THE LAKE BREEZE MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT...AS
WELL AS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL VORTICITY.

..JEWELL/KERR.. 05/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

LAT...LON   41997616 41967934 42027963 42227980 42487972 43397913
            44407628 44887574 44797526 44397517 42997556 41997616