Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 301738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301738
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-302015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA...CNTRL/ERN NC...NRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301738Z - 302015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE SVR RISK WILL ALSO INCREASE...AND THE
ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD INSOLATION CONTINUES TO BREED
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION...WHERE POCKETS OF
CUMULUS BUILD-UPS HAVE BEEN NOTED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INVOF A WEAK LEE TROUGH. STRONG HEATING OF THE MOIST PBL
CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE
AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING IN
PLACE...CONVECTION MAY DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA /1/ AS PBL
CIRCULATIONS STRENGTHEN.../2/ ASCENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
CONTINUES...AND /3/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES ON THE FRINGES OF
NWRN-VA REMNANT CLOUDS FACILITATE BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS...WITH AROUND
25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALLOWING CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE
INTO QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS -- EVENTUALLY SPREADING TOWARD THE
COASTAL PLAIN. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ESPECIALLY IN EARLIER AND MORE CELLULAR PHASES
OF CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF MORE
ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
THAT COULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA. REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35238029 37707863 38757755 38387645 37347636 35757714
            33937872 33947999 35238029




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