Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 112024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112024
NMZ000-112230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/NE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112024Z - 112230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN NM. LOW INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR WILL
KEEP ANY SVR THREAT LOW AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL NM AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN
DESTABILIZATION ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50 TO
LOW 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY POOR LAPSE
RATES WILL ACT AS LIMITING FACTORS...LIKELY KEEPING MLCAPE VALUES AT
OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION IS RELATIVELY
MODEST. HDX VAD PROFILE SUGGESTS 0-6 KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KT. BETTER
SHEAR LIKELY EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL AND N-CNTRL NM BUT STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED WITH ANY SVR THREAT LIKELY
TIED TO STORM MERGERS AND RESULTANT UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION. AS
SUCH...DESPITE SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 09/11/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33540444 33160565 33580660 34230647 34680617 36160485
            36270359 33540444



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