Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021554
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021554Z - 021730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WHICH COULD
COMMENCE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 17-18Z.

DISCUSSION...STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO
UPPER JET STREAK /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ NOW NOSING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOW UNDERWAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING.

AS THIS CONTINUES...ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING...COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION.  WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS BEING AUGMENTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL BY SURFACE HEATING.  GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS MAY INCLUDE INTENSIFICATION OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION...AND DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT.

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AND STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A
50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS MAY SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL.  THIS THREAT PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD
WITH WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..KERR/GOSS.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36609134 37659086 38438924 37768815 35758943 34779069
            35009163 35709161 36609134



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