Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 220329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220329
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/SWRN KS/FAR NERN NM/OK PANHANDLE/FAR NRN TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 220329Z - 220930Z

SUMMARY...AN E-W ORIENTED MESOSCALE BAND WITH MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT IN VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD THROUGH SERN
CO AND SWRN KS INTO NERN NM AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES.  SNOWFALL
RATES TO AROUND 1 INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES
SHOWED A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD...AND AT 03Z THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL TO WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO EAST-CENTRAL CO.
SNOWFALL RATES ALONG THIS COLD FRONT WERE MAINLY
LIGHT-MODERATE...THOUGH HEAVY RATES WERE OBSERVED IN GLD EARLIER
THIS EVENING /BETWEEN 23-01Z/ WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MEANWHILE...IN ADDITION TO SOME INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA...00Z
NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT SHOWING LOW-LEVEL /850-MB/ FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SWD...WITH THIS FORCING ALSO DEVELOPING SWD INTO THE OK/NRN TX
PANHANDLES AND NERN NM LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES.

ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN WAS ONGOING AT DDC/GCK AND INTO PARTS OF THE OK
PANHANDLE...LOW-LEVEL COLD-AIR ADVECTION SPREADING SWD WILL SUPPORT
A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 04-05Z IN SWRN KS AND AFTER 06Z IN THE OK
PANHANDLE.

..PETERS.. 02/22/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36290059 36170181 36300364 37180413 37560419 37830409
            38120400 38370386 38440362 38520306 38500267 38330210
            38210123 38210092 38160056 37990004 37489981 36640017
            36290059



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