Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 252311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252310
SDZ000-NDZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN ND...CNTRL/ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252310Z - 260015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED BUT OVERALL SEVERE
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WOULD BE HAIL AND TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO DETERMINE IF A WW IS
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER WRN ND WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL SD AND INTO CNTRL NEB.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER HAS
RECENTLY INCREASED WHILE THE SEVERE STORM OVER HUGHES AND HYDE
COUNTIES IN CNTRL SD PERSISTS...DESPITE REMAINING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT
AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN SD PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF ND/SD BORDER. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT --
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J PER KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT -- WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL.

WITH WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
RESULTING IN ONLY 40-PERCENT WATCH PROBABILITIES IS SVR COVERAGE.
CURRENT THINKING IS SVR COVERAGE WITH REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED BUT
TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   47029802 45739712 45009727 43829775 43319825 43079961
            44429977 45130009 45820046 46100066 47110115 47689983
            47029802




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