Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 252229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252229
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-260030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...SWRN WY...FAR NWRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252229Z - 260030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN UT...SWRN WY...AND FAR NWRN CO. SOME SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CONTINUAL
INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. TSTM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA
IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J
PER KG/ AND MODERATE SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KT/. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED STAY
BELOW SVR THRESHOLDS AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   41011175 42191088 42370948 41400825 38250910 38231256
            41011175




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