Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 140706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140705
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SRN/ERN AR...NWRN LA...NRN MS AND PART OF
WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78...

VALID 140705Z - 140830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 78
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE FASTEST MOVING /ESEWD AROUND 40 KT/ PORTION OF A LINE
OF STORMS ATTENDANT TO AN MCS OVER AR WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
NWRN MS.  CURRENT TRENDS WITH THIS LINE INDICATED IT WILL MOVE EAST
OF WW 78 AFTER 07Z...SUCH THAT A ROW OF COUNTIES COULD BE ADDED BY
THE LOCAL WFO AS THE THREAT FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS SPREADS ACROSS
NRN MS THROUGH 09Z.

DISCUSSION...AT 645Z...SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH THE LEADING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING
FROM THE NERN AR/TN BORDER SWD INTO FAR NWRN MS...AND THEN TRAILING
WSWWD THROUGH SRN AR TO FAR NERN TX.  A 50-60 KT SLY LLJ TRANSLATING
EWD ACROSS MS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
WAA ACROSS THE LOWER MS SUPPORTING A CONTINUED ESEWD ADVANCEMENT OF
THE STORMS.  THE FASTEST PORTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING
ESEWD AT 40 KT INTO NWRN MS WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THE SHORT TERM...OVER NRN MS AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT PORTION OF
SWRN TN.

MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE MCS/LINE OF STORMS OVER SRN
AR INTO FAR NERN TX WAS MOVING MORE SLOWLY WITH WEAKER STORM
INTENSITIES.  THESE TRENDS SHOULD PERSIST AS THE LLJ EXTENDING INTO
THIS REGION WEAKENS AND VEERS TO SWLY...REDUCING THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THIS PART OF WW 78.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO THE EARLY MORNING...REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
IN THE SWRN EXTENT OF WW 78.

..PETERS.. 04/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   33519560 33769372 33839232 33929143 34299066 34949024
            35379016 35768916 35808821 35008841 34398866 33888965
            33829065 33379180 32759279 32339362 32289442 32139530
            32009596 32259624 32659650 33169630 33519560




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