Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020137
KSZ000-NEZ000-020630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CST MON FEB 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS...SW NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 020137Z - 020630Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KS
AND SW NEB THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR
WITHIN A FEW LOCATIONS INSIDE THE MCD AREA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF RATON PASS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES ACROSS
THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY
COOL THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS ACROSS NW KS AND SW NEB SUGGESTING THE
PREFERRED PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 600 MB WITH AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FAVORABLE FOR
AGGREGATION IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVY SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS COULD REACH 1
INCH PER HOUR ESPECIALLY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

..BROYLES.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38380038 38150155 38580195 40340173 40439946 39509919
            38380038



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