Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200314
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-200445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NC...VA...DC...AND MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200314Z - 200445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND/HAIL REPORTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH 05Z OR SO...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND VICINITY LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE SFC TEMPS AND PRIOR
CONVECTION SUGGEST MOST/ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ABOVE A
LOW-LEVEL STABLE LAYER...00Z REGIONAL RAOBS AND HRRR-PARALLEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE REMAINS AVAILABLE.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES
/ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE/...THIS ELEVATED
BUOYANCY MAY FURTHER SUPPORT AN OCCASIONAL HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM IN
STRONGER CORES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PENETRATE THE SFC STABLE
LAYER...FAVORING A FEW STRONGER GUSTS. DUE TO PRIOR CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING THOUGH...POCKETS OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PICCA/GRAMS.. 07/20/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   37907704 35537815 34327928 34768056 34848061 35438092
            37217998 39167771 39027675 38757638 37907704




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