Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261934
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-262130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN OH...FAR NRN WV...PA...SRN
NY...FAR WRN CT...AND FAR NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261934Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LIMITED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW IS NOT
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OH...FAR NRN
WV...NRN PA...AND SRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THIS COMBINATION OF
LOW-LEVEL HEATING AND MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE MCD AREA. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE LIMITING
FACTORS...INCLUDING MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 DEG C/KM OR
LESS...MARGINAL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KT...AND A LACK
OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NY INTO FAR NRN NJ AND WRN CT
WITH ANY DISCRETE STORM THAT CAN BRIEFLY ACQUIRE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
ROTATION TO SUSTAIN AN UPDRAFT. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY
SPORADICALLY PRODUCE TREE DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURES FURTHER W ACROSS PA...FAR NRN WV...AND FAR ERN OH.

..GLEASON/CARBIN.. 07/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   40347938 40248093 40978165 41497960 41927792 42197606
            42277419 42037351 41537324 41217395 40647787 40347938



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