908
ACUS11 KWNS 042332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042331
TXZ000-050130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024

Areas affected...parts of western and central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 184...

Valid 042331Z - 050130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 184 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells, posing all-hazards severe risk, are
ongoing in/near Tornado Watch 184.  Later, upscale growth/expansion
of storms is expected, which is likely to eventually require
new/downstream WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest KMAF radar loop shows a persistent supercell
moving southeastward across Pecos county, which has produced
previous tornadoes and currently appears likely to be producing very
large hail.  A second supercell which has developed more recently is
moving along the Midland/Upton County border, and also poses an
all-hazards risk in the short term.

Meanwhile, convection is increasing in coverage farther east,
including a longer-lived storm now over northern portions of Coleman
and Brown counties.  With time, CAMs suggest upscale growth emerging
from within the broader area of storms, and shifting eastward as an
at least semi-organized MCS.  This seems plausible, given a fairly
well-defined vort max aloft moving across southeastern New Mexico
and Far West Texas, and an associated increase in a southeasterly
low-level jet expected to occur this evening.  Resulting QG ascent,
combined with the favorably moist/unstable environment downstream,
should act to sustain convection and associated expansion of severe
risk east of the existing WW.  A new WW will likely need to be
considered -- perhaps earlier than optimal due to the proximity of
the convective increase in the Coleman/Brown county area and
vicinity to the eastern edges of WW 183 and 184.

..Goss.. 05/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30230290 30750344 31760221 32129930 32159803 31209732
            29859737 29519841 29310085 30230290