Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 291938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291938
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WI...SERN MN...WRN UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291938Z - 292215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY
CROSSING ERN KS/NEB. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND PLAN-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF
VWPS IMPLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE ASCENT PRIMARILY TIED TO A BROAD WARM-FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS WI. STRONG HEATING ON THE S/SW SIDE OF THIS ZONE IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH
DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ONLY MODEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REGARDLESS...SFC-BASED CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE WHERE BAROCLINICITY IS
ENHANCED ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ON THE ERN FRINGES OF
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FROM SRN MN INTO NWRN WI...AND PERHAPS FROM
BOUNDARY-LAYER CU NEAR LA CROSSE. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH
SVR THRESHOLDS GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE LACK OF
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND THE PRESENCE OF POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/HART.. 08/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   43839420 45389281 46629003 46528894 45538892 44678959
            43759073 43569233 43839420




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.