Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 071940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071939
NMZ000-TXZ000-072115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S-CNTRL NM INTO FAR WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071939Z - 072115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.  A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...DIABATIC HEATING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
AN INCREASE IN STORMS AS OF 1925Z OVER PORTIONS OF
CATRON...SOCORRO...GRANT AND SIERRA COUNTIES IN SWRN NM.  RECENT
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL NM AND FAR WRN TX /INCLUDING THE
EL PASO AREA/ THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S AND FURTHER BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING WILL YIELD MLCAPE
VALUES PEAKING IN TO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.  WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WIND PROFILE EXHIBITING WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE 6-7 KM AGL
LAYER ATOP LIGHT ELY/NELY SURFACE WINDS...THE SETUP MAY PROMOTE A
FEW WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS
THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 07/07/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31800736 32590805 33330805 33710760 33870718 33800621
            33400578 32560515 31570528 31100528 30960548 31160585
            31540630 31780653 31800736




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