000
ACUS11 KWNS 231723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231722
TXZ000-NMZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TRANS-PECOS OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231722Z - 231945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR
W TX THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD DETER OVERALL
ORGANIZATION...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...INITIAL CONVECTIVE TOWER HAS FORMED ALONG THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF JEFF DAVIS/REEVES/CULBERSON COUNTIES. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AMIDST CONTINUED ROBUST HEATING ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF A RICH GULF MOISTURE PLUME WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL-SUPPORTED
BY MORNING CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
ARE WEAK...BUT DIRECTIONAL VEERING OF THE PROFILE WITH HEIGHT ALONG
WITH MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WLYS COULD YIELD MULTICELL/MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH A RISK FOR MICROBURSTS AS
WELL.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32090318 31660218 29910176 28900312 29700463 31930372
            32090318