Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020259
NEZ000-KSZ000-020500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NE/N-CNTRL KS...FAR S-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020259Z - 020500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM STRENGTH AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS AN EWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS A MORE
FAVORABLE AIRMASS. PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT IML AND OGA REPORTED
PEAK GUSTS OF 48 AND 41 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVED
THROUGH. MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONT FROM ABOUT 30
MI W OF MHN SWD TO 2O MI SE OF GLD AND THEN SWWD TO JUST SE OF LHX.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT
CONTINUES EWD INTO AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACT TO ENHANCE THE
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR SVR HAIL
AS WELL.

NRN EXTEND OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING SWD ACROSS NEB. RECENT ANALYSIS PLACED
THIS BOUNDARY ALONG A LBF TO HDE TO OLU LINE. SRN EXTENT IS LESS
CERTAIN BUT DRY AIR S OF DDC SHOULD ACT AS A LIMITING FACTOR.

..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 10/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38440126 39290093 40130081 40430038 40379934 39899854
            39119867 38209962 38440126



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