Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 192033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192033
TXZ000-OKZ000-192300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Areas affected...West-central and North-central Texas...West-central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192033Z - 192300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is expected across west-central
and north-central Texas this afternoon into early evening. Hail and
gusty winds will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
Weather watch issuance will probably not be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a surface trough over
west Texas with south to south-southwesterly flow in place across
most of the southern Plains. The western edge of a moist airmass is
located from southwest Texas extending north-northeastward into
northwest Texas where surface dewpoints range from 65 to 70 F.
Moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE values along
this corridor in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition, WSR-88D
VWPs at San Angelo, Texas and Frederick, Oklahoma show 0-6 km shear
in the 25 to 30 kt range. This combined with steep low to mid-level
lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km will be sufficient for a marginal
hail threat with the stronger updrafts. A few strong wind gusts may
also occur as cell coverage increases gradually over the next 2 to 3
hours.

..Broyles/Dial.. 09/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   30099979 30400051 30930043 31520018 32800030 33529982
            33969878 34379806 34329736 33849715 33179740 31979810
            30499906 30099979



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