Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232043
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-232215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NY...VT...NH...MA...SRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411...

VALID 232043Z - 232215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES IN AND NEAR WW 411. SOME
SEVERE RISK WILL EXTEND OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH INTO PORTIONS OF ERN
NY...MA...AND SRN MAINE...BUT ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...AT 2030Z...SCATTERED STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN AND NEAR WW 411...WITH SOME DAMAGING
WIND REPORTS NOTED OVER NRN NY/VT EARLIER. A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A DAMAGING
WIND RISK GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

THE DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL EXTEND TO AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH
ACROSS ERN NY...SRN VT/NH...MA...AND SRN ME. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
TENDS TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT DUE TO MIXING OF SFC DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S F...AND SOME DIFLUENCE IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELD...WHICH WILL NOT FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF STRONG CONVECTION
VERY FAR SOUTH OF WW 411. AS A RESULT...DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS
CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
RISK WILL PERSIST AND A LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 411 INTO FAR SRN NH
MAY BE APPROPRIATE.

..DEAN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   43617499 44327456 44517379 44527288 44407195 44227128
            44037034 43727008 43197052 42347075 42257179 42297239
            42297290 42327342 42377409 42727444 43207497 43617499



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