Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 011551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011551
MEZ000-NHZ000-011645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011551Z - 011645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/VT/ADIRONDACKS MOVING
ENEWD WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG SWLY H5 FLOW /40-50 KT/.  CLOUD BREAKS
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER WRN/NRN MAINE WILL AID IN WEAK
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AMIDST BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE
DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS EVENTUALLY EVOLVING
BEFORE EXITING INTO ERN QUEBEC.  A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS HAIL MAY RESULT...WITH THIS STRONGER STORM RISK BECOMING
HIGHEST IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS CAN OCCUR.

..SMITH/HART.. 08/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   47176882 47346817 46856770 45616752 44906874 44737105
            47176882




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