Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS11 KWNS 290621
SPC MCD 290621
Mesoscale Discussion 0365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017
Areas affected...Southern OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...
Valid 290621Z - 290745Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96
SUMMARY...Northern portion of an extensive QLCS should continue
northeast across southern OK and southeast portions of WW 97. Strong
wind gusts are the predominant threat with this line, with the
overall severe threat appearing limited. Downstream WW issuance is
DISCUSSION...An extensive QLCS is ongoing from southwest OK to the
Rio Grande in south-central TX. Recent movement of the northern
portion of the QLCS has slowed to around 30-35 kt suggesting the
line may not approach the edge of WW 97 until near 09Z. 06Z surface
analysis indicated a pocket of relatively lower dew points along the
Red River into far northeast TX. Thus, the northern part of the QLCS
could further weaken in the short-term. However, a plume of lower to
middle 60s surface dew points lingers across southeast OK near the
warm front. RAP-based mesoanalysis indicates comparatively weaker
MLCIN within this corridor as well. It remains possible that
embedded portions of the QLCS that are more perpendicular to the
mean wind could intensify as they approach the edge of WW 97, given
strengthening deep-layer winds with an impinging 500-mb jet.
Overall, the probability of severe gusts should remain low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34519786 34719740 35079696 35289657 35569628 35719600
35579550 35229519 34719526 34229561 33979614 33999734