Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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344
ACUS11 KWNS 301755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301755
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-302000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UPSTATE/CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
VERMONT...AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301755Z - 302000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND
DAMAGE EXPECTED NEAR THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW AREAS
OF TOWERING CUMULUS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA.  INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA IS WEAK BASED ON LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...BUT MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS CONTINUED INSOLATION/SURFACE
HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG.  FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALOFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE REGION...BUT CONTINUED HEATING
AMIDST A CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH TIME.  A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE
EXPECTED GIVEN 50+ KNOT FLOW ALOFT...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS PRIMARILY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS.

GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   44987400 44987309 44787262 44057267 42947340 41807494
            41117613 40937690 41087742 41597743 42317710 43327596
            44177484 44987400




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