Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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464
ACUS11 KWNS 231950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231949
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-232145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AR...NRN/CNTRL MS...FAR NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231949Z - 232145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...AT 1945Z...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A
WWD/SWWD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS...WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL/WRN AR. WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY IS REMOVED FROM THE MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES...SOME ENHANCEMENT
TO NLY/NELY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOTED IN THE NQA VWP...LIKELY RELATED
IN PART TO AN MCV CENTERED NEAR MEMPHIS. THE COMBINATION OF A
WELL-DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WIND RISK THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR AND NRN/CNTRL MS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
CLUSTERS THAT CAN DEVELOP FROM CELL MERGERS.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS WRN AR...FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE LESS
WELL-DEFINED...BUT TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 100 F IN COMBINATION
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S F WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF WET
MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS IN THIS REGION.

AT THIS TIME...THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32499065 32719222 32999334 33469386 33939433 34459438
            35229338 35629252 35879189 35849128 35239123 34519116
            33919095 33549036 33238962 33048940 32538944 32428980
            32499065




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