Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 041516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041515
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-041745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NY INTO VT/NH/MAINE/MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041515Z - 041745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO VT/NH/WESTERN MAINE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ALSO BECOMING MORE PROBABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION /MAINLY PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND/ BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT...VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD WITH INCIPIENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF EAST/NORTHEAST NY INTO VT/NH
LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /AROUND -15C AT 500 MB/...MODEST MOISTURE/HEATING ARE
LEADING TO INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE CINH IN THE PRESENCE OF 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE AS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN NY INTO
SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ACCORDINGLY...RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT VIA
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER WINDS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT INITIALLY...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/HART.. 08/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   44867323 45107137 46076955 44596805 42947061 42417264
            41657365 41947418 43037381 44117377 44867323




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