Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251903
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-252000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NJ...SRN NY/METRO NYC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415...

VALID 251903Z - 252000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 415 WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS REMAINING THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A
CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SVR WIND COVERAGE WILL MERIT AN UPGRADE TO AN
ENHANCED RISK WITH THE UPCOMING 20Z OUTLOOK.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL
PA...AHEAD OF A MORE ORGANIZED LINE EXTENDING FROM THE NY SRN TIER
SWWD TO PIT. SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER TSTM CLUSTER
EXTENDS FROM SERN NY WWD TO JUST S OF BFD -- NEAR THE WRN NY/PA
BORDER. AS THE ONGOING LINE CONTINUES EWD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE INCREASED STORM STRENGTH WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE. INCREASED COVERAGE WILL
MERIT A HIGHER SVR THREAT AND AN UPGRADE TO ENH IS PLANNED WITH THE
UPCOMING 20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH THE MORE DISCRETE
DEVELOPMENT.

..MOSIER/COHEN.. 07/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
CLE...

LAT...LON   42257988 42587798 42237435 41777331 40577329 39567379
            39637596 39717883 39998023 42257988



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