Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241004
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / WRN KY / SW AND S-CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241004Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HINDERED BY WEAK
BUOYANCY BUT A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE
TSTM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO
S-CNTRL IND.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE 88D IMAGERY THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN REFLECTIVITY WITH VERY
WEAK SHEARED SIGNATURES WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.  MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SWRN IND SHOW SB-MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 J/KG
WITH ALMOST ALL CAPE LOCATED BELOW 500 MB.  KVWX VAD SHOWS A VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN TEMPS RISING TO NEAR
60 WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD THROUGH IL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG ASCENT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BY A MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
JET STREAK /100 KT AT H5/...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  WHILE THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP
WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY EXHIBIT TRANSIENT WEAK ROTATION AND A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37558889 39188661 39228583 39088554 38838542 37358775
            37298827 37348860 37558889



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