Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 282337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282336
SCZ000-GAZ000-290100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN INTO CNTRL/SRN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...

VALID 282336Z - 290100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IN GENERAL APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING.  THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF CONVERGENCE WITHIN A ZONE
ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.  THIS MAY BE AIDED BY
WEAK TO MODEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
PROGRESSING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS
ALONG THE LINE...SOUTH OF MACON GA EASTWARD TOWARD THE CHARLESTON SC
AREA... COULD BRIEFLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE 00-01Z
TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH PRECEDING CONVECTION AND INLAND
ADVANCING SEA BREEZES...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
APPEARS LIMITED.  FURTHERMORE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING SEEMS TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

..KERR.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...FFC...

LAT...LON   32248456 32278388 32378294 32518251 32538190 32528118
            33197981 33427917 33387887 32408040 32058160 32088203
            31858317 32068483 32248456




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