Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281827
NCZ000-VAZ000-281930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Areas affected...Northeastern North Carolina and southeastern
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281827Z - 281930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized severe threat is evolving in the discussion
area currently, with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
possible in the most organized activity.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite imagery indicated increasing
convection across the discussion area over the past hour of so in
the wake of a lead supercell that is approaching the Virginia Beach
area currently.  The lead cell is likely elevated, although more
recently developing convection exhibits weak supercellular
characteristics and are in an environment containing moderate
(1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE) and favorable low- and deep shear for
updraft rotation.  A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out in
this scenario as long as low-level flow remains backed to
southerly/southeasterly in the area.  Hail/wind gusts may also
occur.  This threat will be relatively confined (spatially) as
convection that develops in this environment will likely not have an
extensive amount of residence time over land before moving out over
Atlantic waters.  Convective trends will be monitored, although the
brief/localized nature of the threat precludes a WW issuance at this
time.

..Cook.. 05/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   36997749 37037711 37067662 36947601 36487567 36057561
            35787582 35627622 35747678 36077737 36497781 36737788
            36847775 36997749




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