Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261850
TXZ000-262045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261850Z - 262045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR
CLL...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON ITS WESTERN FLANK.  ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND A WATCH ISSUANCE
IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENDANT TO A SLOWLY EASTWARD-MOVING MCS JUST
EAST OF COLLEGE STATION.  CONVECTION WITHIN THIS MCS HAS BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WITH LOCALIZED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
CONTRIBUTING TO OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLOGENESIS AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY.  REDEVELOPMENT OF
MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED IN EARNEST ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
UNDERCUT BY A SOUTHWESTWARD-MOVING COLD POOL FROM NEAR CLL TO NEAR
GTU.  ANOTHER ISOLATED STORM NEAR HYI HAS INCREASED AND MAY ALSO
POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

WITH TIME...HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.  GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND 30-40 KNOTS OF
DEEP SHEAR...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW VEERING TO
WESTERLY ALOFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW
LCL/S.

..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30449825 31069734 31589638 31849558 31779473 31289436
            30649430 29869522 29359670 29089746 29079812 29469854
            29969858 30449825




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