Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281935
MNZ000-NDZ000-282030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281935Z - 282030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN ND AND
NWRN MN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN ND ALONG A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SFC WIND SHIFT...AND ACCOMPANYING A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO CO-LOCATED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS...WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES ARE LIKELY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE INTO NWRN MN...WHERE TOWERING CU WAS OBSERVED MORE
RECENTLY ON VIS IMAGERY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 20-25 KT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR PRIMARILY MULTICELL MODE CONVECTION...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND. HOWEVER...THESE
THREATS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48629393 47509534 46429699 46129852 46309938 47079916
            49019713 49009521 49429520 49389483 48799459 48629393



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